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Either that or she wants to get in cheap Yorkie
Defo!
(Just filter the s****, I have!)
Really?...... Guffaw...
I have a feeling Lauren louise is a paid deramper.
How do i filter people?
@laurenlouise. Have you been on the Krug again? After a relatively quiet start, you are proving as unpleasant as you were on the Sirius message board.
What do you think you are proving by attempting to be a smart alec. You just come across as just aggressively rude. No doubt you will reply in some childish fashion, but really don't bother as I've heard it all before from you.
not mindset.....kindest...
Tiggerman....the mindset thing I can say about your post is that it is disingenuous drivel...
You claim to know something whilst saying no-one knows what the directors are discussing...
Another dreamer...
@TMT ; Absolutely agree . No-one but the principals involved knows what precisely will happen, but it will not be a major disagreement. NCM and GGP have too much to lose by rowing. And the CEO'sof both companies are not of that ilk. And am certain that what is agreed will not disappoint any of us.
Personally, I hope we sell Hav, 100%, for $800 million to $1 Billion, and maybe more if the resource is ????? huge , monstrous, absolutely unbelievable ???
GH then moves into top gear on the next choices , readying things for the next NCM deal. Scallywag we hope ,- but there is no shortage of further choices.
And maybe pays us loyal shareholders a small divi , 10p? 20p?? whatever.
And we move into Stage 2 Paddy hand sitting , patience , hold for gold again, for which we now have all the know how. Whow. . Could it all happen again ???? But what a journey in prospect. The sunlit road.
Tig
@thelearner "TMT - the JV I am sure says minimum spend."
I'm sure it does, too. That doesn't mean anything. I can guarantee there are places where the agreement is going to work better if GGP is willing to be flexible, and places where it is better if NCM is willing to be flexible. And these people (on both sides) are not stupid. We're not in penny-pinching, "but you agreed" territory. Flexibility and a good working relationship is worth a lot more than a few million quid on drilling.
Good post TMT.
TMT - the JV I am sure says minimum spend. None of us will ever see the full legal text of the JV. I'd guess NCM could slow down and produce a PFS - but would not be realistic as they do not have enough data - because as you say, the size of the discovery.
At the same time - if they slow down, AISC at Telfer will increase as feed slows down and grades get poorer - OPEX for Telfer will remain pretty constant. So slowing down would reduce profitability at Telfer - which is already tight. Now getting new high grade feed to Telfer will hugely increase profitability - so I think NCM will accept the increased spend.
They are still getting bargain of the century - and if I was GH I'd be telling them that - and if it is legal in terms of the agreement not parting with any cash until we are in Phase 4 - when we have to pay 20% of FS costs above $20 million.
@Paddy
"Does this mean that all the spend that Newcrest incur for the next 12 months is going to be part of Stage 3 ?? This would mean they could conceivably spend somewhere between $50-100m to achieve their next 20% of Havieron.
Any thoughts people - Paddy"
My thought is that the thing blew up on everyone when this turned out to be so much bigger than anyone expected, and they are probably somewhat making it up and modifying things as they go along.
This is not the only thing that ends up not really fitting all that well within the Farm-in Agreement. That 5% FMV -- sorry, but I don't think it is going to be possible to know what Fair Market Value is by the time they get to that stage.
Both companies are sitting on the biggest find in Australia in ages. Both want it producing as quickly as possible. Neither wants to be tied down in a legal fight which could cost them both far more than they might gain. They are going to be agreeing whatever they need to agree.
If NCM is going to have to double or triple the expenditure planned for this stage of the Farm-in, why is it happening? Because both GH and SB are the luckiest guys in Australia. So SB sends an email to GH saying, "This extra expense. At the end of the day, we should pay 70%, you 30%. We know you don't have cash and it does nobody any favours to wait until you raise it. What say we pay your 30% now and reflect it in the 5% FMV later? Use the cash you have to keep drilling Scally."
GH responds, "Cool, have the lawyers write something down."
Done and done. I suspect there's going to be more than one of those minor facilitating agreements. I could be wrong but I bet they are just agreeing what they need to as they need to.
Nobody expected it to be this big. Every agreement is amendable and everyone is winning. I expect that to continue. Even if the agreement allowed one side or the other to play hard ball, I don't think either would. There's new agreements to be made after this one, too. No one is going to mess up the working relationship for a few quid when everyone's getting rich.
I am with you on that bamps. From memory i heard in from the Shaw and partners analyst who said the MRE is due end of the year which forms part of the PFS. So i too thought the PFS would be ready end of the year, I guess it can still form part of the PFS without them being issued together.
but mostly what I took from that interview were his comments that Havarion could be that big, that high grade, and last that long (multi decade!!! good luck all, dont give them your shares on the cheap we all know whats about to happen
Hi Paddy
I noticed the PFS end of 2021 yesterday and I got a bit muddled with it as somewhere I've read or heard that the PFS was due end of this year with the MRE figures .
15 months from now seems a long time to produce this.
Would they have made a mistake and should it have been the FS by end of 2021.
Perhaps not but it does seem a longtime.
Normally the Decline wouldn't commence without a PFS. This operation is definitely outside the scope of the jv and our share will have to be paid unless there are amendments to the jv.
ATB:))
Dip. Absolutely right on that. NC shareholders are pension funds, managed funds, insurance cos etc. All wanting a risk free investment with steady income. Not chancers like us lot ! So that’s why I think any buyout has to be on a conservative basis for their approval. For GGP to accept, it would need an extra kicker. Maybe a royalty payment per Oz ? Or additional milestone payments on reaching a certain number of ozs. Remember that no one knows how big Havieron is. Except it’s very big. Massive !
Hi Paddy and all
I think the 'minimum spend' clause was maybe more designed to protect GGP in the event that maybe results were not mind blowing. Newcrest could have fulfilled their commitment quite happily over a 6 year term and we'd have got the drilling we required completed.
As it happens, results have been staggering. I don't believe that Newcrest will baulk at spending considerably more to get this to PFS. When they get to the point that they are able to book 'reserves' then any additional spend will look like peanuts in the grand scheme of things. They clearly believe that this will be the case.
I wouldn't even like to guess at how many billions Hav could ultimately be worth but every penny spent now is increasing it's value and that's surely great business for Newcrest.
In the meantime, yes, our value increases as well. Can't see a cheap buy out though
Good point @paddy - I think everything depends on GGP making another strike in their current exploration drilling plan - if we hit then I GH has so much more leverage! ALB
Well said WF - its important to consider things from NCM and their shareholders viewpoint when considering matters. As an NCM shareholder I wouldn't want a speculative purchase - I would expect NCM to make sure we have a very good idea of what we're purchasing even if paying more - its about the long term (decades) not months for NCM as a corporation.
The other thing to keep in mind is that if they try and screw us about with an 'We don't like those terms any more, we need to renegotiate' is that GH is more likely to play hard ball with numbers for other regions.
It'd be a case of cutting off their nose to spite their face
I dont think NC want to show their hand by finishing or saying they will finish early with the spend, I think they are sitting there waiting Scally results then they will pounce like they should of once they had a clue Havieron was massive. They somewhat missed the ball but they also have a ruddy good deal so far. Or is it they are buttering up their own nest for a potential take over of themselves and GGP helps justify the takeover and we will be part of it just not with NC's money
@Paddy - Those are the terms though.
And lets not forget at the end of this they'll have 70% of Hav. Spending $25M more than planned to get there when its 2 / 3 / 5 / more times bigger than they thought it might be when they signed the farm in sounds like a good deal to me
The farm-in terms are crystal clear to me - I'm just questioning whether people see Newcrest happily working through all of next year, developing the decline, drilling another 80,000 metres, all the environmental studies when they have quite clearly passed the $25M that they had set aside for this stage - all the time increasing our bargaining position and strengthening our hand.
I'll be over the moon if this comes to pass and my strategy has always been to hold until we either mine or get bought out, I just wondered what other peoples thoughts were on this??
ATB - Paddy
Jerry, thats whats documented so far.
Having seen where we've come from over the last 6 months or so, I'm not sure we need to become the sort of bedwetting holders that need GH to 'Confirm / Clarify' something to make us sleep better at night