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He's talking to you Paddy....
lets hope he has more to say at the Diggers & Dealers presentation !!!!!
Chrissrbirdies I have no idea how that sort of return on a yearly basis would value GGP, but at 25% that’s 250m Oz @ $1000 an Oz . $2.5 bn a year .. but being realistic even 50% of that would be huge !
Cheers Mr Green73 :-)
Sorry lenz.
Auto correct
Hi lena
"that’s 1m Oz per year .."
I'm having a hard time seeing predicted share prices.
Wether we co_mine or sell ,and newcrest manage 1 million oz a year and we own 30% of that . I work out after tax and filling the company coffers for future ventures a possible 3.3p/5p dividend. So I see a possible 75p for haverion .
Future payments for skallywag and others are years away.
Can somebody show me where I am thinking this out wrong
No disrespect to you Zoros but research is not easy , I had to correct you a litle while back as you had assumed MagicTrades was Dale from the investment journey and were recommending his YTube valuations as if Magic made them and probably had not come across Magic's geo focused YTube vids? Not havng a pop mate as I enjoy your posts :-)
Often in this age there is almost TOO MUCH data to analyse and the PaddySats seem very predictive based on my 10 months or so looking at PaddySats and then the official results from NCM. Paddy also has accrued enough knowledge to make some very well informed guesstimates I feel - its easy enough to check his work against what has transpired in time. I'd say he is by far one of the best posters on LSE who did not have a professional background in the industry in question - very impressive work I feel.
Broker*
Prof last broner note 18p 4.2 mil oz so 4.28 x 15 or 10 if you want yo he conservative but id go with 15 personally but that is risked estimate ie not started the decline/ mining yet
"To suggest GH relies on PG's calcs....errrm nah!"
To suggest that is what I was saying....errrm nah!
There's perhaps more than a microscopic difference between "relying on" PG's calcs and maybe tacitly accepting them with a hint that there's even more there. I suggested the latter, not the former. Feel free to point out any flaws I missed in what I said, but not flaws in what I didn't say.
Thanks for coming to play but you don't get to substitute the ball we're using for a different one with no air in it and then complain about the game, LOL.
Ok, I really don't have time to get into defending this, it's there if it helps anyone, but as noted already it includes some uncertain speculation. GLA.
Yes, I’m reformed and here for a good size retirement nest egg now, £50k in around a week ago so need this to do well now.. looking for 30p minimum and 45p for a tidy Christmas! What do you recon sir? Possible?
20m oz would be in the 60p, 80p or 100p area, depending on whether you favour a 3, 4 or 5p per m oz rule of thumb.
20 m oz seems very ambitious to me though.
"Is 20m oz not 60pTMT?"
Do you want my honest opinion, Mickey, or my, "Man, I don't want to sound too rampy" opinion? My honest opinion is your prior predicted price is in serious jeopardy, and well done for changing it. But I do not know if we are selling our gold in the ground or keeping it, and if we do sell it, what we will get for it, so there are too many unknowns. But in my view, it's locked on that we'll be at least 50% above current SP based on known reserves.
Well put TMT and this needs repeating often for any nervous holders even more so thaN Chester’s timelines
Very inclined to agree that it was convenient for GH in his radio silence mode to be asleep and not take questions but he and Callum both seem to have been very clever at exploring legal and clever routes of sharing clues with committed s/h’s . The name checking of Paddy and the ringing endorsement of his estimates (and the comment they were conservative separately ) on what must have been a pre planned strategic way is as telling as any of the many other ducks we now know . Ducks in a row ready to be served with Paterson region sauce l’orange
Sp does seem to have settled at this level at the moment, has it run out of steam until any news lands here?
Great analysis TMT.
Looks like we'll be losing the J from the GDX in record time ; )
Tmt, good post. I am in total agreement re Fact no 6. GH does like to leave a breadcrumb trail for loyal PI’s. or in this case an entire loaf!
Is 20m oz not 60pTMT?
Not sure it isn't worth more than 30 p a share tho TMT?!! I'd say a lot more....
TMT..great post and have to say I like your thinking..Paddy getting a mention was 100% pure class..zoros you should stick to your trading, shorting or whatever.. You don't and haven't contributed anything to this board.. go stick your head back in the sand..EMU type..
Zoros i think youre missing how big a deal it was to mention Paddy and really did confirm to us that He agrees fully with Paddy's calculations and yjey know their stuff and hats off to paddy, and you should be pleased if you hold ggp shares GLA
Blimey...there's always one isn't there!!!
I think you're spot on with your comments TMT.
Here's to the amazing amount of m oz's underground at Hav!!
No disrespect to PG. Correct me if I am wrong but PG's expertise in all of this has been sat data, no?
Some volume calcs but that is all. The "experts" regarding volumes and densities etc surely are the likes of Hydrogen and MagicTrader and a couple of others. Does PG dabble in the mineralisation calcs also?
Regarding the FM's comments regarding PG....TMT you obviously know more than I do in this respect but what I saw and heard was a 'passing' comment on a PI, that's all....nothing more, nothing less. To suggest GH relies on PG's calcs....errrm nah!
Z
TMT .. paddy reckons 500m tonnes of ore at present figures, Telfer can process 22m tonnes a year, take down time and maintenance and say the figure is 16m tonnes @ ave 2g per ton = 32m g ... that’s 1m Oz per year .. just let that sink in as the maximum Telfer has produced is 700,000 Oz per year ! All just bouncing nos. about, quite happy for it to be ripped to shreds ! If it’s factual ..
TMT - a super summary and a very logical and reasoned assessment.
You are quite right, if PG's estimations had been above what they believed to be in the ground, absolutely no way would he have got a mention and name check.
The only summary you can draw from what happened is that PG's estimates, as they are presently, will be exceeded, by how much I don't know of course, but a fair bit I would imagine, again, if PG was close I don't think he would have had a mention either, so I, like you, take that to mean the actual resource will blow all current estimates away, and I too added this week.
GLA
Tuesday I liquidated two assets and put more here, smashing my diversification rules further. I expected little from Monday. I came away amazed. I’ll give my reasoning.
Facts:
1. GH follows Paddy on Twitter.
2. GH knows of Paddy's 15-30 moz estimate.
3. I've never seen a fund manager name-check a PI as WM did. Unprecedented. Some FMs may respect some PIs but they assume PIs can't possibly compete with their own research.
4. WM is no fool. He's a well-respected fund manager.
5. He didn't just name check Paddy, he commended his calcs / research.
6. GH emphasised the cemented breccia is not getting enough attention – from whom? Not the market as a whole, because the market is clueless on Hav.
7. Paddy's calcs, as near as I can tell, do not reflect the higher concentrations (the cemented breccia) discussed by GH on Monday.
8. GH and WM likely spoke very recently, in prep for Monday.
9. GH knows Paddy is avidly watched, and will see Paddy’s views as highly representative of the shareholder base.
Speculation / conclusions:
1. Since both WM and GH follow Paddy, chances are high Paddy's resource calcs were mentioned between them whilst prepping for Monday. If so, GH would be very careful, but could basically let WM know (without explicitly saying) what he thought of Paddy's calcs.
2. In any event, WM has nothing to make him doubt Paddy's estimate, either from GH or his own research.
3. I’m concluding GH thinks Paddy's calcs are reasonable (or low).
4. I’m concluding his emphasis on the cemented breccia means not just “the market” is underestimating Hav, he was telling us we (as represented by Paddy) are, too.
I now assume an eventual resource of at least 20 moz, probably more. I was working off a baseline of 10-15 moz (hoping for more). It's huge.
20 moz, at $400 / oz for gold-in-the-ground, is over 30p / share just for Hav. And that's conservative, $400 / oz is very low. I’m sceptical of some AISC numbers suggested, but compared to most gold-in-the-ground sales, it’s going to be low AISC, low CAPEX, and early production start – and lots of potential buyers.
So, I bought more. Just like in late August, I thought we’d never see 12-13p again, I think we’re departing the low 20s very soon on this share.
I sound like a ramper, reading too much between the lines. But I'm blown away by WM citing Paddy, just after GH said something that must mean he thinks Paddy is leaving out something important (whether thinking about Paddy’s calcs specifically or not). Willem knows what he’s about, and fund managers don’t cite PIs as a source of research or value estimates. That’s partly a well-deserved tribute to Paddy. But it also means we should pay attention and maybe even read between the lines.
DYOR, I might have made a mistake, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, all the usual disclaimers. GLA.