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"I have just binned you"
As I recall, you "binned" me yesterday?
I did welcome Cella, might I suggest you google "irony"?
I can't understand why you see fit to continually attack me.
Maxwell - I have just green binned you. At 19.44 you agree with everything Haveagoodday posts and by 20.07 you welcome Cella to the GGP board thanking them for their view being a breath of fresh air - Cella’s first post was to “out” Haveagoodday as a deramper (looks like another subtle dangerous one, a bit like yourself) - so for that reason Maxwell you are green binned and I will be keeping a close watch on Haveagoodday.
Cella, welcome to GGP board and thank you for your view. Breath of fresh air!
It is probably worth noting that everytime Haveagoodday (along with a couple of other derampers) has turned up on the SEE board, it has been a fairly accurate buy signal. So, here’s hoping for next week as I am invested in both of these.
Nice one enjoy, I do appreciate all the effort that people put in (wright or wrong) Help's keep an open mind on things. Even tymers has some valid points (grumpy old git). But i do believe this Is turning into a rather large gold find, that time will only tell how big. But its def going to be mined Just look at the pics of portal etc. Big question is are there more in that area, teflar just up the road etc. Why do you think the juriventure hit stage 2.
I hope new and recent holders take notice - wise words indeed!
GGP is not a short term gain; 2 to 3 years and serious profits will be made by all (should GGP be the subject of a takeover, profits will be made by all too, hopefully).
I have on checking some penny shares we hold , SEE is one and greatland is one of the others we put past for our granddaughter , this is the first time I have posted a message on this board BUT the similarities are frightening , it seems we have a number of serial rampers who will post anything to ensnare anybody to purchase shares in this company ,REMEMBER 70% of AIM companies fail , 20% manage to hold their value and the rest have a slight profit or go into the stratosphere , thats why we have a punt , stay safe and have A GOOD day
Thats this weekend work.
I’ve created the structure of analysis for the different mineralised zones.
Tonight though syd I’m having a couple of beers. Taking some lovely IPA to task! ;)
Sorry missed the brackets(Good discussion. I also talk enjoy seeing how others have come to their valuation. This weekend I am going to the and work out a PFS for the diffident deposit areas.
Regarding valuation methodology I found a brilliant (a little complex at times) video on you tube. It’s an hour long but really informative. Explains different methods I value producers, developer, explorers and gives some good watch outs for the junior penny dreadfuls. :) regards s
Hi Hllinvestor some good points for us all to take in. how r u doing with ur calcs. Good discussion. I also talk enjoy seeing how others have come to their valuation. This weekend I am going to the and work out a PFS for the diffident deposit areas.
Regarding valuation methodology I found a brilliant (a little complex at times) video on you tube. It’s an hour long but really informative. Explains different methods I value producers, developer, explorers and gives some good watch outs for the junior penny dreadfuls. :). regards s
GGP are in an enviable position of small part developer and explorer as the heavy lifting of capital expenditure is carried by NCM. Development and exploration is happening at break neck speed. With a board at GGP who are proven, credible stewards for the task at hand.
Exec summary as requested:
Macro picture is good for gold. Gold best correlates with US deficit spending and US 10 year -tve real rate
Persistent Inflation scenario very bullish only if the inflation is not as a consequence of strong underlying economy (which would be -tve gold).
Deflation scenario Gold would initially drop with slowing economy but then rebound strongly with government stimulus.
US is underpinned by wealth creation from stock market.
1. Understand where we are in the commodity cycle. Don’t fight the trend.
2. Valuation should assume flat price of gold.
Segment Companies Senior - Junior:
Net Asset Value
Senior 1.1 X
Mid (250k oz production/year) 0.75 X
Junior 0.6 X
Free Cash Flow 5%
Wealth Creation Rate of Return over a sustained period of time.
Producers must find more gold than they produce per annum to keep growing the company.
Capital To Build Mine. CAPEX must be fully funded. Watch outs if companies try taking short cuts in development costs I.e. leasing trucks and equipment.
Free Cash Flow
Risk Transition Typical market discount 17%
Wealth Creation. Profit after all costs over life of mine.
All about credible, expedited management.
Does not invest until consistent grades have been found.
Determine Finding costs=Value for Amount of gold found-cost of exploration.
Questions to ask board of junior:
What is the thesis for exploration?
Are you planning to build a mine?
Have you done this before? And have demonstrated success in same jurisdictions, geology and task at hand.
What is the question you need to address first?
Are you fully funded to answer that question?
What is the company worth today (take out or liquidation value)?
Put another way, If the company sold its tenement rights and assets, how much would you get?
What is not going as well as you’d like? - The CEO who answers everything is perfect nothing is going wrong should be viewed sceptically.
How many people are on payroll?
What is the % annual expenditure going towards exploration and exec remuneration?
There are lots of bad actors in the junior exploration space taking salary and enjoy in the trappings of the role. exploration is a race between making a discovery and spending cash. Be sceptical of CEOs who take hefty salaries, if they believe in the project and their ability to deliver they will be rewarded handsomely when the discovery is made.
Too many PIs pick companies on PR and hype , nothing else. (I’ve done it).
Use these questions when interacting with any junior explorer your researching to expose
I don't believe I have. My starting point was the $320/oz (Tropicana deal price per oz) where the AISC used for that deal was $1000/oz. Our AISC is $600/oz so the adjusted "deal" price is 320 x 1000/600 = $533/oz, but I've stuck with the $550/oz used by Texlax30.
With $533/oz (deal price), 15Moz and 4.2B shares gives a floor SP is 41.5p per share for our 30% of Hav.
I have not checked the POG when the Tropicana deal was done...
For me I appreciate simple 'back of fag packet' calculations on the company valuation, as it puts perspective on the share price - appreciate that many assumptions that have to be made though, and in 12m time it will be much higher.
I took Corradus' figure of $550 as the buyout price per oz (based on the Tropicana deal but adjusted up for a lower AISC).....the pog ($1800) minus the AISC ($600) would give a figure of$1200 which any buyer would demand a hefty discount to.
What is exciting though, is that if the Pog increases by 25% ($450), then this should elevate the buyout price to $1000 per oz without affecting the AISC too much, thereby increasing the value per share from 41.5p to some 75p. (All based on 15m oz deposit). Gold bull markets in the past have seen the pog rise by many hundred %, so a 25% rise could easily happen in time.
Have been reading on here for many months, and am fully invested....would like to thank all the informed posters for their wonderful insights and for giving small PI's like me the confidence to invest significant amounts of our wealth into GGP.
Hi Corradus. Your figures.
You're using the AISC in your calcs. You should be using the PoG minus the AISC in your calcs, not just the aisc.
Secondly you should use all available shares @ 4.2Bn.
I posted my reply as I dont think its beyond the pale to assess the possible sale of the 30% stake in Havieron assuming similar terms to the relatively recent Tropicana deal, and certainly judging by the number of recommendations for Texlax30's original post many others thought so too. My intention is certainly not to antagonize anyone (there are many others that are much more proficient at this than I!!), but to underline where our share price should be, and possibly to point out a slight inaccuracy in Tex's original post (although I may be wrong on this and am happy to stand corrected).
Hi All. Too many variables and unknowns to get a accurate valuation. Safe to say in 12 mths time we will have a higher SP than what we have today. ATB Speedy
Worth adding that this is a floor to the share price based on 30% stake in HAV being assessed at 15Moz and bought on similar terms to the Tropicana deal. I personally believe IF (big if) it happens the terms should (must?!) be better and the assessed size will be bigger... (Au price, Cu price, AISC, circumstance re Telfer, etc.)
Good to get some calculations - always good to peruse those. May I just ask if you converted your final figure from dollars to pounds? The figure I get is somewhat lower based on your assumptions (I used 3.96B shares in issue, which I believe is correct rather than 4.2B used re any potential TO?).
550 x 15,000,000 = 8,250,000,000 (15Moz)
8,250,000,000 x 0.3 = 2,475,000,000 (30%)
2,475,000,000 ÷ 3,960,000,000 = 0.625 (total shares to give $ value)
0.625 x 0.7257 = 0.4535625 ($ to £)
Shares in issue 3.96 billion.
I also get a slightly lower $ / oz of 533 ($320/oz x 1000 / 600 - comparative AISC), but I've used 550. For info 533 gives 44p.
If 4.2B shares rather than 3.96B then 41.5p.
Of course if 20Moz add 33%, etc...
Thanks Hllinvestor... could you give us an exec summary...relevance to GGP? Cheers
Good discussion. I also talk enjoy seeing how others have come to their valuation. This weekend I am going to the and work out a PFS for the diffident deposit areas.
Regarding valuation methodology I found a brilliant (a little complex at times) video on you tube. It’s an hour long but really informative. Explains different methods I value producers, developer, explorers and gives some good watch outs for the junior penny dreadfuls. :)
I for one, found your calculations interesting and informative.
So thank you for posting them and incurring the wrath of the GGP ramp squad.
That's a very interesting observation Spoons. Would definitely change the chat on these BB's.
I dont like the top 5 board I think its very dangerous to have a "Like" System on share boards as it can lead to false dangerous impressions of people that some could use for their benefit if you get my drift? If people want to provide info for other users they shouldn't be "Rewarded" as such for doing so with likes. You can smell posters just posting for likes a mile off! I suppose if theres one thing it does it makes me wary of those that like hunt. I do want to say though that there are many what seem to be genuine people who post and get many likes so this isnt a slight towards them. I just think they should take the like system away and see how these boards change. I have to go now but nice talking to you.
TBH Spoons, most individual shares are a mugs game, occasionally you find a no brainer like GGP and place your bet. I've not looked at EUA, but I see it's always on the leading chat "top 5".
I've got a few "very good potential" shares in my pf, but the vast majority is in ETF's & a few good funds.