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Well said Spratt......whatever method was used to find the stuff successfully at Havieron they will use at Scallywag. Can’t wait for lead up to first Scally results!
I mean zeros no point even letting on how undervalued solg is I would keep that one under your hat your calcs seem bulletproof ..just silently walk away and put everything in solg and let us suffer with this dog of a share...ffs pmsl.
Bingo Tom the bomb, the valuation here is still very conservative at 15p as it’s highly factored And risk averse which is what you would expect from such companies..A worst case scenario if you will. But as you illustrate a lot of the progress since has not been factored in such as the recently announced successfully step out let alone the high grade breccias..once these are proven up and formally announced we are indeed looking at multiples of today’s SP...then add to the mix hitting even decent grades at one of the other projects, which currently have almost no value attached, and well I cant imagine what that will do to the SP. the geo technical work has so far proven itself and I simply cannot believe that we will not hit at least one from the multiple targets in the next few months.
Looking through the posts then there is a lot of good positive information to keep this post on the straight and narrow. There was a mention about Sprott portfolio driven by algorithms, but the Sprott Geo's and MoneyMen still have to make fact based decisions. Obviously there can be particular factors that help them make the decisions to buy certain stock but also there can be simple knowledge factors that can maybe help influence them. Check what Sprott's Steve Todoruk, says in this video at 19 minutes in:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPHn0fufIqY
If there is confidence in GGP from Sprott, then that's confidence enough for me.
You don’t know what your talking about your $200 an oz value for gold in the ground is comedy. Try more like $800-$1000 per oz with little to no Capex required due to Telfer up the road.
Zoros knows all this, his posts over on the SOLG are in exactly the same vein but from the opposite side - bigging up GGP and negative on SOLG!!
He is entitled to his opinion and I think he generally talks a lot of sense - guess he just likes to be a pessimist!
In short ask yourselves this...why are Newcrest chicking all they've got at this and salivating and chomping at the bit to get this resource found ? It's got to be an elephant!
Look at how NCM managed to ramp up their reserves (from 4m to 19m) by further exploration and moving from open-pit to block cave to exploit new discoveries. This is almost Havieron copied
'The mine opened in 1977 as a joint venture between BHP Billiton and Newmont Mining. In 1990, a merger between Newmont Australia Limited and BHP Gold Limited resulted in the creation of Newcrest Mining, with ownership of the Telfer Mine now lying with Newcrest.[12][13] The Telfer gold mine was expanded in 1991,[14] and in June 1995, the mine reserves were 3.8 million troy ounces, with resources at 7.3 million troy ounces. The annual production was 370,000 to 380,000 troy ounces of ore.[15] In 1997, the mine reached the milestone of having produced 5 million ounces of gold.[8] Open cut mining was suspended in August 2000 due to high operating costs. The closure of the mine came one year ahead of schedule as production of underground ore was well below mill capacity and therefore not viable.[8] High production costs were primarily caused by the presence of cyanide soluble copper in the open pit ore.[13] Newcrest then focused on exploratory drilling for new minerals.[12]'
Second mining period from 2002
'In 2002, Newcrest Mining announced a new redevelopment project worth $1 billion,[16] after discovering new mineral areas and a reserve base of some 19 million troy ounces of gold and 640,000 tonnes (710,000 short tons) of copper.[17] The redevelopment expanded underground mining areas, deepened open pits, constructed a processing plant and power station, and built a new gas supply line from Port Hedland.[12][18] The Telfer mine is not connected to the Western Australian power grid but instead produces its own power from natural gas via a 450 km purpose built pipeline. The power station on site is able to produce 138 MW of power.[19] The focus changed from open pit mining to underground mining, and Telfer became one of Australia's largest gold mines,[12] second only to Kalgoorlie's Super Pit.[20]
The mine reopened in November 2004, after commissioning of the processing plant and, initially as an open cut mine, from March 2006 also with an underground operation.[13][19] '
Well informed posts Schlemiel and coupled with Chart's expert blockbuster of info as ever, hopefully this puts doubting Nellies to waste somewhat.
I do always agree that both sides of the story should be pondered as all are informative if well researched and knowledgeable and I learn along the way as a bonus not being a mining aficionado. However, even given the facts we have now without a figure on the actual MRE, we are vastly undervalued at 12.5p. Even I can see that..
Go go Schlemiel well pointed out, im sure there sre dome posters who just like to be negative to scare investors to sell. Its very black and white and any one thats done a small percentage of research should know everything you have pointed out
How much would it cost to mine Havieron economically, build the transport infrastructure and then build the processing facility? All in? $4bn? We get it all for less than $350m!!!! Even if that cost rises to $500m, that's just over our own market cap. For SOLG the capex demands for Alpala are over 8-10x their market cap. yes, that's neutral for GGP and 10x for SOLG
Read chartbusters old posts. He predicted the demise of solgold months ago. He is probably the only one here with real pedigree in the mining business and believes 20 million ounces from Havieron is feasible from the data released so far. Couple that with Dales presentation and Paddys map the price of the share it's far north of where we are today.
Lostinspace69.
Where did you reference that A.I.S.C.
are we building another processing plant ?
Zoros - You fail to understand the importance of capex in your analysis. Choosing to focus on what's contained within (and even these figures are subjective and open to change) is only half the picture. The capital required to extract (mining), transport (rail-road), process (facilities ala Telfer) and then deliver to customer can be crushing to the point where some companies falter and wither under the strain of this inability to raise the funding (SXX is the prime example here)
The relative capex requirements of Alpala and Havieron are at opposite ends of the spectrum. For GGP they can raise their capex requirements ($50m) in the blink of an eye, SOLG need around $3bn-$4bn. The difference is huge, HUGE. SOLG will not be able to raise that capital on its own and don't forget this is Ecuador and any capital provider will want a risk premium for their funding to reflect the political risk. Australia it ain't
Havieron has Telfer processing facility, we have Newcrest (the best block cave miner in the world) as our partner, we have a high grade discovery with upside and potential elsewhere in the discovery, low AISC, low capex and low political risk...and our surrounding tenements are highly prospective
I'm not dissing SOLG. I believe it will be taken out well before mining. mather knows this as well. He's playing a waiting game. SOLG shareholders will enjoy a decent pay day and I wish them well
AISC for Havieron estimated at around $900. Gold at $1750. 5m ounces = 23p. 10m ounces = 46p.
In all fairness it’s a point I’ve been curious about and @zoros last e mail is clearer. My question to myself is what does our 12.5p include, and it’s clearly based on the 5m/5.5m oz view. So the point is what is making up the difference between 12.5, 27, 60p and this board has clarified that really well with plenty of references and online links. Just sit tight. Sit on hands. Read, read, read and it all becomes clear. GLA
Zoros,
The numbers you're citing for SOLG ring a bell: wasn't it SXX that had similar numbers, and a similar approach of going it alone? Nothing is sure in this world but I reckon GGP is less risky at the moment.
do you mean 250m not 250k.
23M worthless oz's in Ecuador (tinpot country) with +$3B capex, deeper and much lower grade than Havieron.
if your thesis is that SOLG is undervalued then Im afraid you just dont get it. Nick Mathers is busy p*ssing everyone off there too.
Glad to see NCM heading for the door at SOLG too.
Cheers
CB
GGP
Comparing GHP to SOLG....... PMSL
I apologise if I am making anyone uneasy. That is not my intention. I, like nearly all of you wish GGP every success and all the 'news' surrounding this discoverer is very uplifting and promising.
But I must address the issue of market price once and for all, in general and then I'll leave well alone:
If we assume the "inferred value" for gold underground (with NO confirmed volumes) is currently $200/Oz (and that is being generous) and we assume there are 5 mil Oz sitting @ Hav.
That makes the value of the mine (at this stage): $1 billion. GGP own 25% of that: $250k.
4 billion shares. SP should therefore be: 6.25p.
20Mil Oz: 25p/share.
The markets are betting on there being 10Mil Oz. minimum. Lets hope so, eh?
Meanwhile another company over on the other side of the world with PROVEN assets of 23 Mil Oz, is vastly underpriced: SOLG. NPV: $4.6Bn. 2.5Bn shares. SP should be: $1.85. Currently 20p ish.
I am sure it will all work out in the end.
GLA.
Well the men are shrewd in so far as they rely on the algorithms - and not their own judgement!
Sprat - The Sprott portfolio is driven by algorithms, not 'shrewd men!
Tom you are correct re the Numis value of 15p but I believe this is still factored down by .5 due a risk, whatever they maybe, so we are looking closer to 30p if proven out for 5mil oz. Most I believe will agree it’s looking to be a lot more than that hence investors like Sprott have finally bought in at close to all time SP high knowing this is only going to grow...and remember these guys are very shrewd