London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Totally agreed!
Q
Cannacord value 11m oz as worth £92/oz to us at an SP of 25p.
That seems a bit low to me.
Q
You got risked / de-risked wrong way round.
Its 33p- 66p
Hi again Bertie, Canaccord are coming in @ 11Moz Au. Hannam csme in @ 12.3Moz, yet the former values it @ 24p and the latter @ 33p (unrisked)...how does that work?
Opinions shift every time one of these brokers breaks wind!
If Canaccord believe we have almost arrived @ their target of 24p, it suggests that future MRE's, the PFS and the FS will do nothing to the SP - yes?
Are we really to believe that this is it? Knowing that their 11Moz won't be exceeded, long term?
I for one will stick with Hannam for the time being...their maths adds up....Canaccord's don't (IMO).
33p unrisked and 66p risked..........all day long.
Z
Agreed Bertie but not much has made me laugh this year - I was in fits last year!! Onwards and upwards!!
Redirons
Canaccord make the statement that their clients see us at full value at 20p ish which was our value around the time of the note .
They say some really positive things about us being derisked and suggest 11mill oz au at 24p .
If I can read that note then surely any ii can and a lot more besides .
That makes me think,that is now priced in to a large degree . Only when we release MREs above 11mill oz au and up to the 20mill oz mark ,which I believe we will in time, then our SP get above previous highs .
Just a matter of timing . A bit like the secret of comedy.!.
Hi Bamps. Love your posts. All we have to do is sit back, relax and see our SP eventually reach fair value. Where that fair value is depends on the POG/CU and how much is found. As for the POG, i see a much higher price and as for what GGP find, who knows. ATB Speedy
If they're managing 4m a shift with 3 shifts a day they will already be past the position of the first vent.
Q
Oops NE of the box cut
The MRE will have a material impact as it will be an indicated resource which is more definitive but you have to look at the PFS as a whole not just quantities.
The PFS is the initial plans on how they will be mining, firstly how they intend to get the sample loads out and secondly any future planning, maybe a second Decline or the first glimpses of plans for the SLC hugely important steps.
It also starts the approval process for mining.
Maybe time scales till sample loads or indeed the FS.
This is why I’ve been saying take your minds away from the exploration phase and concentrate on how they are going to retrieve first ore.
That means money in the bank.
Keep your eyes open for the vent starting, they can’t do that till the Decline passes that position but there is a lot of groundwork to do first.
It’s just to the NW of the box cut in the middle of those 2 dunes.
Exciting times :))
Bertie - you seem to imply that our SP will only increase significantly when II’s invest - in which case will that be once the PFS is announced in September, or would II’s start piling in on some other catalyst?
Bamps I get what your saying about various methods of working out the MRE , but irrespective of the method they have used a value of 11m oz au plus copper .
I just feel that people will be expecting a large uptick in the SP when the next MRE comes in at say 8/9 mill ozs which based on Canaccords valuation won’t happen or won’t be able to be sustained if we don’t get the interest from the institutions.
Longer term with the decline drilling and Sandeeps contiguous bodies we will move to 20mill ozs and it will be at that stage the share will push over 50p imo
Cheers
Hi Zoros, Bertiesboy
It’s very difficult to compare figures for valuations unless you are using calculations that are like for like.
H&P note is 5 months old and we have had a plethora of new information to through in the mix.
They are using 670 deep the latest published data is 1300m and according to the latest Ggp presentation the ore body size has grown and the ovoid between 900-1300 tonnage has practically doubled the size of the ore body from 570 to possible 940.
Now the k/oz vertical meter calculation is one of numerous “rule of thumb” ways of calculating an ore body. The first one to be used was Taylor’s, others included Singer and Long updated Taylor’s in 2009.
As I said they are rule of thumb ways of measuring an ore body not very accurate I may add but close.
Now Bamps rule is to try and measure as close as I can with up to date grades and try to get the volume as close as possible :))
Hi Bertiesboy - I continue to read and re-read Canaccord's assessment. I do struggle to understand their perspective on the target price and often wonder why SD hasn't had talks with them about this, because in reality, this note would be a massive setback compared to all the other broker notes issued to date. It seems the market doesn't agree with Canaccord otherwise we would have been witness to a blood bath here!
Who knows where they get their maths from, especially a broker who is 'onside' with GGP.
I continue to look back at Hannam's note and others which overlaps with some of Canaccords yet reaches a different conclusion.
We all know notes shouldn't be relied on, but simply provide informative data which the user can incorporate into their own calculations.
If Hav was just NCM's and no-one else was involved and they alone ended up with 12Moz+ @ the mining stage...this stock would be worth £1.20- £1.50 every day of the week. (IMO).
GGP however, own 30%...therefore is it suggests they are worth 35p to 45p....target
Z
Zoros
I think you need to review Figure 3 page 5 and the paragraph below on Canaccords note again on what their value for us now is .
I get everyone’s workings out to show a value of x p and truly hope that it comes true .
My question tho remains why do Canaccord . Our broker , not come to the same X . Which parts of their assumptions and predictions do you not agree with.
Morning Bamps....had to make an observation on your earlier post regarding the current SP value.
I think we all accept that there is another MRE imminent that will probably double the amount of gold thus far...later MRE's will add to this again. Consequently your comments about the increase in the SP are about as certain as it possibly can be.
I for one think the MRE(2) inferred will be out before the PFS and the MRE(indicated) will be included in the PFS (IMO).
As for todays SP, Canaccord work it out to be about 25p on a good day!
I see it as this, using the blunt instrument of the predicted AISC:
Based on gold @ $1700 (GGP are using $1400 in their latest reports)
AiSC of $700. (Probably much lower nearer the time).
Recovery rate 93%.
And 4.2MozEq. (Au and Cu).
Profit per ounce: $1700-$700 (that's convenient eh?): $1000.
Recovery rate (93%): 3.906Moz
3.906Moz @ $1000: $3.906Bn.
GGP own 30%: $1.172Bn.
$1.172Bn divided by 4.2Bn shares: 27 cents/share
27 cents: 20p.
QED.
Z
Why do Canaccord give such different estimate to our assets
They give our value based on
11m oz au
copper shown as a BP credit au eq
Output of 8mtpa
Gold price at $1796 oz
Copper $ 3.40lb
Cannacord value 24p
If our own broker is working to these values surely SD et al would have objected to their rational .
Before I am demonised as a deramper I topped up last week at 20.34 p thinking that was about the bottom .
Hi lebugue. Maybe they have. ATB Speedy
Given all these potential assets it's surprising Newcrest haven't stepped in to buy more GGP
Oops “indicated “
MRE Inferred quantities 161,000 ton of copper.
Copper had a high of around $10,700 recently
= $1.7bn
1,700,000,000 x30%= $510m
or around 8.5p per share
This time last year the copper price was around the $5k mark
This time last year copper concentrate was fetching around $4,000pt
so now must be around $8,000pt or more.
MRE gold equivalent =4.2m oz
That works out c44.5p per share
Separately Gold of 3.4m oz = 47.5p per share
and copper 8.5p = c56p per share
Inferred resources can’t be included to the accounts
That's assets without deducting liabilities.
The Feasibility Study or Decision to Mine is also the bankable study.
The Decision to mine looks odds on.
The share price has to catch up with this MRE at some point so what is going to happen when the MRE Inducared resources are increased and assets can be included to the accounts.
Exciting times ahead :))