We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
More likely (110-111) is more suited
I have skimmed through the guide and what screams at me here is the part about market value of a company ggp with one major asset/mineral resource. {15}.
It appears that J P M and/or Newcrest have also seen this!
Cannacord will not want to be seen as b ulling ggp by over valuation.
We app to be f**kd
Opinions are like @rseholes, everyone has one. The 5% will be based on NCM and GGPs perceived gold/copper/silver etc in the ground. That’s it. Basic really. They’ll decide what they believe to be the resource size, cost of extraction, net profits of such activities, and then what the net present value would be in today’s money. The petty arguing is unnecessary.
That's part of my point matty56 Shaun has stated offers on the table etc. but if we can get to production with minable loans and dilution that's all in our favor. As a share holder. Ok maybe be we don't get a huge amount for the 5 percent. but also we only pay 25 percent of costs to production instead of 30. so I'm sure some one can do the add ups on that. And like (think it was Bamps ) we did not give away the initial 65 percent We needed them how the hell would we be at this stage now.
Syd....fully agree...the idea of the 5% deal was put in place a while ago - the risk of not getting maximum value is a sunk 'cost' of getting NCM on board. Fortunately this sunk 'cost' will actually be millions of dollars coming in to GGP (Vs just being another earn-in like the other 70%). It may be that the FMV used is an annoying distraction (why so low?), or a really positive one (our remaining 25% looks super valuable) - but whatever, looking forward a bit further 25% of the mine with less need for debt/equity dilution than without the 5% deal...
I think we should leave the 5% to those who have more information than all of us , this as been going on for days.
Know more waffle eaten for dinner and over loaded with crap.
Fair market value can be augmented by both parties.
Respect to all of you (well maybe not all) Some really excellent points put over this evening. But i think we need to remember yes we did make the discovery, but how the hell would we have funded it with out them. I'm pretty sure will we be part of a tier 1 producing gold/copper mine in roughly 2 years which will expand as things develop. And even if the 5 percent does not live up to a lot of expectations. If it can cover our costs to production without dilution then i would be happy. If you said to me you owe 30 percent of costs or 25. There is a lot of different ways to look at this. But I'm happy thinking i will have a share of a 20-30 mill oz copper/gold mine for the next 30 years+ and I'm pretty confident that the share price will blow us all away. keep the faith
No worries Merc, I thought you'd been sniffing those petrol fumes again LOL
Respect that spade, but the JV agreement states “fair market value” not “future market value”
I think it was written to be valued at this point in the process and will be valued accordingly.
Lets see, obviously i hope you are all right and i have egg on my face lol.
SpadesAspade,
Good post, I agree.
I'm gonna put my neck on the line now for the February deal - having done a bit of research, I think Newcrest will offer $800 an ounce for the 5% that's known and confirmed (& probably some sort of annual royalty going forward as more of the resource is confirmed). You can't put fair value on an entire asset when you're only currently looking at "a fraction of a fraction".
Rex
Merc, not arguing but the where do you get the $400 an ounce, we all know and they do as well, that there is a lot more than 7moz down there, that will be taken into consideration ! Both companies will have to agree on an expected deposit figure. God knows what that will be, but well above 7moz I would imagine !
Merc, no disrespect mate but there is no way it should go for that sort of figure.
Think of it as if you were the owner, knowing that there could possibly be 20,30 40 million ounces of gold and god knows how much copper and other minerals in the ground, would you settle for £50-100M, I don't think so.
Why would you take a 5% deal based on only a fraction of a fraction. You just wouldn't, or at least a CEO with ambitions wouldn't.
And yes I know all about you can't get a 100% of what the gold in the ground is worth, but I think paying 50% for it should be looked upon as a great deal for NCM. It's like saying you buy one ounce and you get one ounce for free.
I'm banking on reserves being at least 20M ounces in time, and @ $1000 per ounce profit that is an overall pre tax profit of around $20 Billion. with POG staying around $1800.
So in my eyes and my opinion, 30% of that would be a nice $6 Billion to GGP. So I would be saying, look Sandeep, both you and I know what's down there, if you want a further 5% then I will give you a 50% discount for it, so just sign the cheque for $500 Million and be done with it. You will also make $500 Million over time, otherwise I'll keep the 5% and cash in with a $Billion dollars myself over time. In fact I could use that as future collateral against any loans I wish to do to finance our ongoing costs.
And like I said that is without any value for copper etc and any rise in the POG.
Exactly aquakid, and so what if 5% is £100m, thats 5% of what its worth NOW
If our 25% is worth £500m NOW that means its worth £1bn at 10m oz, and 2.5bn at 20m oz
My points were that the 5% will not reflect in any way what this ends up being worth, and we should not be disappointed if its below what some expect, its NCM’s reward for taking the early stage risk.
Ty hydro, as always, peace and love to all. Roll on news!
Mercedes man has it spot on , that kind of figures would be excellent, we are talking about 5% here , 5x the offer of 5% is what the rest is valued at , it doesn’t mean the share price is going to rise very quickly, this is a long game to production or a buyout .
Lenz i respect your position (and math) but i just think you are too optimistic
I dont think NCM are going to pay for 5% of 12m oz when we have 5-7m oz proven
I think they will say 7m oz *5% is 350,000 oz * $400 an oz = $140m or £103m
Look who’s back! It’s Catweasel!
We get MRE2 for 7m oz,
Merc . Even just going by that figure 5% is worth $350m
Mercedes’ not when you work out the value of the 20moz . At todays prices and current AISC . That’s $20bn + so easy maths 5% is worth $1bn and that’s still a steal, I worked on what the brokers said 12moz so that’s $12bn .. 5% is $600m but I think GGP would accept $400m
Josh im in far deeper than most here, your silly teply just highlights your immaturity, not knowing how to respond to a discussion you dont like. Im uber bullish on GGP both short and long term (as my tweets point out) im just not in La-La land thinking its going to be 40p next month. Spoiler alert, it aint.
And im in 2 stocks?! I cant be any less diversified lmao
Lenz, lets pretend Hav ends up being 20m oz
We get MRE2 for 7m oz, NCM give us £100m for 5% and an additional £130m for the additional 13m oz over the LOM
We have been paid £230m for 5%, that pays for all the set up costs and future mine upgrades, and we retain 25% or 5m oz
For a junior miner that is an astonishing position to be in. I fail to see how that would be seen as negative, i think its superb.
merc - falling off my chair if the add ons come to £10 per ounce when the shared profit element is at least $300 per ounce because of the ultra low AISC. Beware the credibility gap. The £50m and £10 per ounce add ons would mean a total breakdown in the relationship between GGP and Newcrest and that ain't happening.
Merc, it wouldn’t be a good deal as it would hit our share price like a brick if that was it, even then it would still be under valued at $10m per additional oz! So we could get another $200m over 30 years .. sorry but no thanks !
Take no notice of that idiot mercedesman, you’ve only got to look at his Twitter to know what he’s currently in and out of. Probably wants a re entry.
250000 divi would keep me going for a couple of years very nicely my friend. DM