Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I think the gulf between the 5% valuations - even if you halve various figures to be conservative - and the current market capitalisation shows there's a big rerate due. I would not be surprised if Newcrest bought the whole of GGP. It's much too cheap.
Q
Great post Prof.
But after NCM update next Thursday, You may have to rework it all again :-)
And again the week after!
I have now corrected this so that the Havieron PFS AISC is right. It is lower than I'd written down in my notes.
I have had a go at using the Newcrest / Pretium deal to try to value Havieron. Obviously I am no mathematician. Feel free to contradict me.
Newcrest Pretium acquisition.
09.11.2021
Newcrest are spending $2.80bn US for 95%, so the 100 is valued about $2.95bn US.
Brucejack has an AISC $743 and is forecast to produce 311k oz pa over 13 years, which is a total of 4,043,000oz Au. The deal values each oz Au @ $730.
Havieron PFS suggests the AISC will be $643 and the area in the PFS will produce 160k oz pa over 9 years, which gives a total of 1,440,000oz Au. If we use the $730 oz Au figure on Hav that values Hav at $0.25 or £0.18, or £0.054 for GGP's share. It will actually be more than this, though, because of Havieron's lower AISC.
However, we know that we have 4.2m oz Au eq in the MRE. Applying the $730 oz Au figure to that values Hav at £0.55, or £0.165 for GGP's share. Double the MRE, which doesn't seem unreasonable, and you get £0.33. That is £0.039 per m oz Au eq.
Regis / Tropicana came out about £0.044 per m oz Au.
Multiply the average (£0.042) by 4.2m oz Au and we get £0.176.
10m oz Au eq would mean £0.42 and so-on. You can do the maths.
Obviously the Brucejack mine is up and running while Havieron isn't yet, but there is obviously a lot of room for our SP to climb. It may take a while, but it will definitely happen. You only need to look at the satellite to see that.
Using the £0.042 per m oz Au eq figure to value the 5% Newcrest can acquire (0.042 mulitplied by oz Au, divided by 6 to get 5% instead of 30%, multiplied by number of shares (4,206,000,000)).
4.2 m oz Au: £123,656,400.00
6.3 m oz Au: £185,484,600.00
7.4 m oz Au: £217,870,800.00
10.0 m oz Au: £294,420,000.00
Berenberg 5% value at $220,000,000 / £165,000,000. Implies 5.5 m oz Au.
If we use these figure to value the 25% remaining, that gives these figures per fully diluted share:
4.2 m oz Au: £0.15
6.3 m oz Au: £0.22
7.4 m oz Au: £0.26
10.0 m oz Au: £0.35
15.0m oz Au: £0.53
20.0m oz Au: £0.70
Interesting times: looks to me as though at the current price we're sitting on the launchpad.
Q
Hi ProfQ
Thanks for your effort in working the figures out
Did the pfs not state a total inferred and indicated qty of 3.6m oz Au?
My simple maths /logic at trying to understand the current situation is;
Assuming $550 per oz and 30% (of36moz) to ggp gives a figure roughly equivalent to current share price of 14p
then the new combined will be a multiplier of the current. So say the new figure is double (7.2m) then ggp share price should expect to be 28p all other things remaining equal. this is assuming the current figure has not put any further expectations above 3.6moz!
not accounted for anything else as its too complicated, but ofcourse realise theres a lot more involved!
would be good if other more experienced LTH would let us have their more detailed and accurate thoughts on what we can expect
GLA
@ProfQ - I haven’t seen a Berenberg valuation for the 5% but if you’re talking about the Cannacord one, it was $228m with them using 10-12moz I think. They also gave an estimate of around $50m using JUST the MMRE amounts.
Think I worked out the price in a previous post for the $228m at between $450-$600 per ounce, which I would be very happy with.
O yes! I got that wrong before and never corrected it.
The time to go over it all again never seems to be available!
Q
ProfQ - the October GGP presentation shows PFS AISC $643/oz. Link below:
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf
I have added a bit at the bottom to my go at using the Newcrest / Pretium deal to try to value Havieron to show the possible effect on the share price of the assumed number of ounces in GGP / Newcrests discussions. Obviously I am no mathematician. Feel free to contradict me.
Newcrest Pretium acquisition.
09.11.2021
Newcrest are spending $2.80bn US for 95%, so the 100 is valued about $2.95bn US.
Brucejack has an AISC $743 and is forecast to produce 311k oz pa over 13 years, which is a total of 4,043,000oz Au. The deal values each oz Au @ $730.
Havieron PFS suggests the AISC will be $743 and the area in the PFS will produce 160k oz pa over 9 years, which gives a total of 1,440,000oz Au. If we use the $730 oz Au figure on Hav that values Hav at $0.25 or £0.18, or £0.054 for GGP's share.
However, we know that we have 4.2m oz Au eq in the MRE. Applying the $730 oz Au figure to that values Hav at £0.55, or £0.165 for GGP's share. Double the MRE, which doesn't seem unreasonable, and you get £0.33. That is £0.039 per m oz Au eq.
Regis / Tropicana came out about £0.044 per m oz Au.
Multiply the average (£0.042) by 4.2m oz Au and we get £0.176.
10m oz Au eq would mean £0.42 and so-on. You can do the maths.
Obviously the Brucejack mine is up and running while Havieron isn't yet, but there is obviously a lot of room for our SP to climb. It may take a while, but it will definitely happen. You only need to look at the satellite to see that.
Using the £0.042 per m oz Au eq figure to value the 5% Newcrest can acquire (0.042 mulitplied by oz Au, divided by 6 to get 5% instead of 30%, multiplied by number of shares (4,206,000,000)).
4.2 m oz Au: £123,656,400.00
6.3 m oz Au: £185,484,600.00
7.4 m oz Au: £217,870,800.00
10.0 m oz Au: £294,420,000.00
Berenberg 5% value at $220,000,000 / £165,000,000. Implies 5.5 m oz Au.
If we use these figure to value the 25% remaining, that gives these figures per fully diluted share:
4.2 m oz Au: £0.15
6.3 m oz Au: £0.22
7.4 m oz Au: £0.26
10.0 m oz Au: £0.35
15.0m oz Au: £0.53
20.0m oz Au: £0.70
Interesting times: looks to me as though at the current price we're sitting on the launchpad.
Q