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I tried to do calcs for EUAs West Kytlim and admittedly only have a basic knowledge of how to do these things but wow the abuse I got was nuts! I soon realised its because WK is not what they like to make out and they didn't want anyone mentioning numbers for fear of it harming the sp smh! Stupid thing is WK is supposedly only a small part in what EUA has. I did read yesterdays RNS on that share and instantly just looked up and shook my head! Jam tomorrow are two words that I would use, dragging on is an understatement! I will leave it with I hope those that hold shares in EUA do finally do well as I still hold all my shares purchased a few months back and its also good to see us mere mortal pi's do well with shares no matter how toxic some people can be. Apols to anyone upset at talking about another share on here btw ;)
OMG! Do peeps really do that?! YUK!
That's completely ruined my day, and it's only just started! :(
Lol!
Rex do NOT look up what "Loofing" means on Urban dictionary lmao!
Loofing, LOOFING?????
Looking!
:)
Thank you for the kind words Spoons, but my last calc of 20p in early September, based on official numbers, went down like a lead ballon. Even though the sp was at 19p when I said it - which meant the market agreed with me & not the wolfpack. Go figure?
Anyway I've "learned my lesson" here. I'll be keeping my own counsel from now on re valuations. It gives me a distinct advantage re overbought/undervalued periods. This lot can scramble around in the dark for all I care.
Loofing forward to December :)
Rex
Rex you have to learn to ignore the insulters who dont like hearing numbers unless they are pie in sky ones, there are many here who dont mind debating calcs aslong as its backed up with decent info. I love seeing peoples workings out as it does a few things for me, allows me to cross reference what they have said to see if I get anywhere their figures and also teaches me how to work these things out. I just wish people wouldn't jump to wrong conclusions if someone mentions something that comes across as negative its so anoying and all it does is stop people asking questions for fear of being slated and there in itself lies the issue, is this the reason why the do this me thinks?
Calc away Rex I'm all ears as I'm sure are many others.
My valuation method is to ignore anyone who tries to discuss applying a P/E ratio to this company. This is a world class asset takeover target any way you look at it, and should be valued as such.
Use the $320 per oz. premium recently paid on a separate mine in Aus (Tropicana) to acquire 30% of a 7.6m oz deposit. Tropicana AISC guidance is approx. $1,000/oz, great producer though with limited exploration upside at the deposit.
With Havieron, you have (100%)…10m oz in a few months time? Yes. 15m oz? Yerp.. 20m oz? Well…ya. And so on…
AISC of say $600/oz which will inevitably trend downwards (would be significantly lower on today’s copper prices, alone).
With our additional margin and significant exploration upside, someone would need to explain to me (like I’m a 5 year old) why our 30% (based on a total deposit of 15m oz) is not conservatively worth an acquisition cost of $550/oz, putting a floor in the 60p region under the company. Don’t forget they’re actually buying a 25m oz + deposit.
If I had $4b spare cash,I would consider investing for a 25%+ return, particularly against a commodity which will likely maintain/ increase my RoR along with inflation.
Someone will be along shortly to tell me we must value the company against 2mtpa until we’re told differently. Just wait until the first smell of a takeover, prior to first ore. All goes out the window, the most dangerous thing you can do is forget how rare and spectacular this asset is.
HIInvestor - if you are interested you should have a look at the various broker notes. General consensus from them is + 40% from current level in short to medium term, with further growth beyond that going fwd.
Don't bother. I got horrific abuse when I showed my calculations.
The grief ain't worth it.
Rex
Share your calculations for the benefit of us all
I understand anxiety about the stubbornly low share price for Investors who bought in north of 20p
What methods are people using to determine target for sp?
Net Asset Value (multiple against benchmark)
Future cash flow
Wealth Creation IRR
If you have a method to determine share price value should help anxiety.
At market cap £700 million and 4 Billion shares using only the PFS theres an amount of good will baked into the share price especially when assessed through risk transition which market discounts ~17%
You could say the sp is pushing its current sp.
however we know the PFS is just a small section of SE crescent
It would be really good to have an assessment of resource size for the different zones of Havieron. Using average grade assumptions from drilling to date.
This numbers could be used for multiple PFS type data to help determine value.
Inflection points:
Discovery at another location
resource size upgrade (adds years to reserve life)
Plan to increase milling rate Mtpa
I’m good where we are, recognise that drilling, drilling, drilling is required to grow the resource and hopefully find another deposit
Always interested to hear how others are valuing GGP.