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Hmmm, clouds on today's satellite picture. A wee tendril just stretching out to tease us by hiding much of Havieron. Maybe we could pass the time till the next picture by starting a conspiracy theory about deliberately blocked out chunks of the Oz Outback, would go nicely alongside the usual bleating about MM manipulations?
Hi Paddy
No there is at least one new sump in the central section. Just had a thought, they may well be fan or directional drilling up on the Northern step outs now they have swung the drill direction around to the SW-NE.
Reckon Ruiz gunna win this fight.....if i can stay awake long enough!
Cheers
CB
Sadly looks like there were no new drill pads prepped these last 5 days. Two more updates takes us to the 17th and I wouldn't expect any more then until after the Christmas break.
Good find on the copper - GH days in the interview last week that the copper equated to about another 0.8g/t gold in the mineralised zones so that's quite a significant addition to the gold intercepts.
I wonder what next week will bring for us??
GLA Paddy
Omg,yes copper is set to rise next 12 months as demand increases imho
We know gold price is forecast to continue rising....Copper price was depresed recently but this may help in the long run....https://www.mining.com/4-charts-that-say-this-time-the-copper-price-surge-could-last/
Thanks again paddy for your valuable work and thanks again for your link to hotcopper . That chap may or may not buy into ggp but what I took note of was he mentioned newcreast working in the summer must be very unusual for rigs to work in the summer. Has we know work has started on HD45 with at least 6 rigs working 24/7 how long will it take them to complete 100 holes ? Would appreciate your views on this matter. Thanks again. Thanks
Message today on the ARV board on HC. One of the guys there has said he's buying GGP next month. Maybe our Aussie cousins will start to take some more positions going forward.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/newcrest-havieron-update.5029769/page-46?post_id=41841505
Cheers Paddy
Timid, I think there has been some assumptions based on fact that NC are supposed world leaders in block caving. Also GH, CL and CB all were talking about block caving at the AGM. Maybe, along with everything else, its a bit too early to be definite.
I'm guessing if they could set up a Block Cave at 70% of the cost of Cadia and in 70% of the initial time it took there then it would make sense to bulk mine it all in one go.
Remember they are Block Caving @ Cadia on a head grade of just over 1g/t and can do it for an AISC of $132.
I realise that this doesn't take the initial CAPEX spend into account but Telfer has an AISC of around $1200 - $1300 at the moment.
For an idea of CAPEX costs have a look at this feasibility study for Oz Minerals for Carrapateena from 2017
https://www.ozminerals.com/uploads/media/170824_ASX_Release_Carrapateena_Feasibility_Study_Update_Presentation.pdf
On Slide 22 there is a breakdown of costs - the total cost was $916M but that included plant, airstrip, camp costs etc.
The decline development cost was $171M.
Personally I think they will go for it as a bulk operation from Day 1.
Remember we should hopefully be able to see what NCM have been up to this week from the new image in the morning.
GLA - Paddy
Plappers, ignore the holder and this wine bottle approximates what Havieron might look like. The top of the bottle is in the northwest - https://www.getinhours.com/products/details/resin-abstract-horse-head-sculpture-wine-bottle-support/1683.htm
Timid, I don't think there was anyone from NCM or GGP that specifically said it would be a Block Cave.
I know you've watched it but look again at the Denver Gold Presentation webcast -
http://www.denvergold.org/company-webcast/dgf19/88/
@ 13.35 minutes Sandeep discusses the trials that they are doing on Block Caving undercuts at Telfer & Cadia which if successful could lead to a 30% saving in time and cost in setting up a block cave and then straight after he says "which given our suite of block cave opportunities going forward could rattle off into a number of opportunities to leverage that technology - so watch that space"
Straight after that @ 15.50 the Havieron slide comes up and he discusses the drilling and structures in detail.
Cheers Paddy
And your problem is Plappers? Why cant a cylinder lie diagonally?
Dog walks are good for thinking....
GH said that they would consider putting up their 3d model on their website. NC has their own, but I cant see them sharing this yet. I presume GGPs would give us a better idea of how the cylinder is shaping up? I dont know whether Paddy can use his 3d image to calculate cylinder size?
Hopefully some new satellite images soon.
My calcs get the range as 9.25 to 31 myn ozs, and a value of between 5p and 51p! I can see why we need more drilling....
All IMHO of course!!
Bloody hell - where did you go to school? a diagonal cylinder?
You are asking good questions Jerry.
The fact that NCM has changed drill direction means that they have a better idea of the shape & orientation i.e. Havieron is vertical, plunging steeply to the SE so drilling SW/NE will give geos a better idea of true widths. ATM we don't know true widths although there seems to be a good sense of the footprint. True widths are important for the high grade zones.
The Havieron fault may be a control as it runs SE/NW.
If the plunge is very steep then calculations about true depth are immaterial but drilling across the cylinder will be a big help in seeing where this series of high grade zones are located and their actual size.
That's why NM want to drill 100 (?) holes in total over the next 9-12months.
Another question: "When did it become accepted wisdom that blockcave mining would be the method?"
I have talked to a mining engineer about Havieron. He thinks if the high grade zones are wide enough NCM could selectively mine those before coming back later to mine the low grade envelope.
We really are just speculating ATM in the absence of a whole lot more required info.
Thanks so much to both of you. So my next question is about the cylinder.
If the cylinder has been drilled to a true vertical depth of 1450, but is at an angle, surely the cylinder of gold ore is much longer than 1000m? Based on diagonal being longer than vertical etc.
Do we know the angle of the cylinder?
I think there were multiple g/t scenarios in the Sprott report but Jonathan Guy definitely referenced 2g/t in the Numis note (well at least the bit that we got to see).
Yes, that's correct. The 2g/t au equivalent is a number that's been bandied about. I have no idea if that number has been calculated from results to-date or is the lowest number used by Sprott and so has become the de-facto base case.
Ok so if we assume the parameters as Timid suggested (conservative some may say) earlier
300m diameter & 1000m depth.
Volume = pi*r²*d (3.1416*150²*1000) = 70,686,000 m³
Tonnes = Volume * Relative Gravity (70,686,000*2.7) = 190,852,200 tonnes
Assume (conservative) 1.5g/t (190,852,200*1.5) = 286,278,300 g
Troy Ounce = g/31.1 (286,278,300/31.1) = 9,205,090oz
The thing here is if we have a base resource of somewhere around this – now for every 100m that we extend (assuming the width stays at 300m) the formula changes to.
Volume = pi*A*B*d (where A & B are the radius of the two axis)
So, for 400m of strike length assuming the depth stayed consistent the numbers would be.
Volume = pi*A*B*d (3.1416*150*200*1000) = 94,247,700 m³
Tonnes = Volume * Relative Gravity (94,247,700*2.7) = 254,468,790 tonnes
Assume (conservative) 1.5g/t (254,468,790*1.5) = 381,703,185 g
Troy Ounce = g/31.1 (381,703,185/31.1) = 12,272,033 oz
So, for every extra 100m of strike (assuming constant width & depth) the orebody could grow by 3 million ounces.
If you change the g/t to 2 then the initial figure is 12.2 million and it grows by 4 million for every 100m
Obviously, this is just for illustration and is not to be taken as gospel – it just gives an idea of where we could be at and how quickly this could grow.
Hi Timid. So by my calcs a 300m diameter cylinder 1000m deep gets me to 12.5 myn ozs based on 2g/t. Is that what you get?
In the metals space RIO's strategy is primarily copper whereas Newcrests is primarily gold. RIO is not interested in NCM for that reason. Winu is not yet big enough for RIO. It is 60-70km from Telfer. I'm not sure of Winu grades to know if trucking to Telfer is an option. If it became a stranded asset for RIO I assume NCM would be interested.
Thanks Paddy, I did say "lower" because FDN is pretty damn good!
Jerry, I think we are still speculating at to size but it appears 300m diameter cylinder 1000m deep is reasonable. I think it is possible stretching further NW based on the latest drilling news & images. The problem is extrapolating this 300m (or other) diameter footprint down plunge. It needs more drilling. I think we should be excited by then NW trend and Paddy's find about the Havieron fault which is also trending NW.
Older I think you might be referring to me!
My point was just that we have a partner who is large, with loads of lovely free cash flow, who is committed to the area and has done a lovely deal with us. They are also very excited by other, nearby blocks. some of which we own.
Adding Rio into the mix just confuses things and will certainly delay things. So I am not sure that it would be in our short term interests, but each to their own.
Paddy, that's my point! More than one poster last night indicated that a bid by RIO wouldn't be in GGP's interest. I have great difficulty with that point of view.
Wrong on both points Older -
I think you'll find that Timid said Havieron was LOWER grade not low grade which it is when compared to Fruta Del Norta.
If RIO were to make a takeover bid for NCM there is no way they would shut down Telfer. I would think given their substantial presence in the area that keeping Telfer open would be one of the big factor in their decision to make an offer. I wouldn't necessarily see a takeover as being a bad thing but having said that I'm more than happy if we carry on with NCM in the current arrangement.
GLA - Paddy
Hi Schlemiel, its not just GGP, there are others in the area too. These havent drilled anything to speak of yet, but claiming nearology and are pumping their SPs. Most are quoted on ASX. If you can find a map of the concessions that might help.