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LOL Mush - exciting is definitely one word for it mate and think about the work our livers are doing too in the name of GGP results evening's!
Hopefully the next 12 months see's yours and many others plans back on track bud :-))
You would need a sturdy belt also
Mutley..haha. You can bet I would have. :)
I've no idea mushroom but they'll "know" you have big pockets :-)
Whatever the outcome Dip, I don't think I have ever been involved (as a shareholder) in anything quite so exciting.
Analogy: I have five fields, one in the middle and four circling around the edge, all of one acre. I have gone over 50% of the central one with my metal detector, discovering Roman coins in every 10% parcel, all have revealed finds with an average rate of 20 coins per parcel. A tentative search in each of the remaining four (one 10% parcel of each) has also revealed hits everywhere. This time at 10 coins average for each parcel. How many coins will the British Museum assume I have and pay for, without me having to search for any more?
Thanks dip
Oops my uber long post should read looking at scenarios 2 & 3!
Freddie, probably a consultancy firm such as SRK Consulting who authored and conducted the example I studied who conducts valuations under the Valmin Code as they would have the relevant experience/knowledge to assess a FMV to judge both valuations.
So who do you think the said 3rd party would be , independant obviously but would they be mining experts or do they do this kind of thing for all business types ?
We have to also keep in mind that that the 5% FM valuation we will probably see is a result of two teams negotiating, not the same as an actual public valuation report conducted using guidance under the Valmin Code where some of us can happily pore over a massive document reviewing every little detail.
If the above were the case, we would see a range of values and then a case for selecting a particular value and methodology from the various ranges and secondary methods used to justify final assumptions.
Example:
1/ Valuations within a 10% range are agreed so average taken and £210m is the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because :
- GGP happy at £220m
- NCM happy at £200m
Both happy.
2/ Say we go to arbitration and £200m gets determined as the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because :
- GGP submitted £425m for their valuation
- NCM submitted £200m for their valuation
- 3rd party calculated £300m FMV so they go with NCM's value as per FMV process as determined as being closer to FMV
NCM happier.
3/ Say we go to arbitration and £350m gets determined as the price tag for NCM to mull over for 30 days because:
- GGP submitted £350m for their valuation
- NCM submitted £200m for their valuation
- 3rd party calculated £300m FMV so they go with GGP's value as per FMV process as determined being closer to FMV
GGP happier.
We'll only be told the final price tag from my understanding, perhaps not even if they had to use an average if no 3rd party required? If so, then making assumptions it is an accurate and true valuation is perhaps not that accurate as taking the FMV price tag and calculating our 30% of Havieron is thrown off by even a £10m difference for each 5% :-)
Looking at scenario's 1 and 2, to me it really really makes sense for NCM/GGP to be collaborative as some really random outcomes could happen via 3rd party based on whatever valuation each party submits, even with the same FMV value and also why I think each need to keep this in mind and be sensible!
Dcgc.. nope you nor the market can use todays share price for what they think the 5% is worth, that’s just stupid ! This share price has been manipulated since 32p for what reason I cannot understand, only for large accumulations whilst, taking it up and down for huge profits !
I agree the share price doesn`t come into the calculation of the value of our 5%.but does indicate the market believes the value is somewhere around £60-£70 million. If the market has got it wrong and it turns out to be £200mil we are due for a massive upward re-valuation. We shall find out in about 3 weeks time.
Sums me up to a tee dip666 :-)))
But the reverse is also true … the 5% valuation could have a huge impact on the share price.
A point that needs to be emphasised, is that current share price will have NO impact on the 5% valuation !
Some forget that NCM 's overarching strategy is not just about Havieron or indeed Australia - look at their portfolio - spinning a lot of plates and the Pretium deal displays they have growth plans on other continent's too.
Good idea to think about NCM's strategy with the more corporate and expansive POV that Sandeep and their BOD have, yes Havieron is critical to Telfer but they have to spend a lot of time and focus on other things.
In a way, their grip on Havieron is very secure as they already hold 70% (and probably soon 75%)and time is their friend in that they could perhaps choose to buy out in a few years after risk is vastly nullified and they have a better idea of Juri/Scally prospectivity. yes they pay more - but risk is lessened at that stage so would balance things out from a corporate view.
Good corporations take long term views carefully weighting risk as much as opportunities, don't get me wrong they may well buy us out by 2023 but when considering things from NCM's view - take onboard all of their considerations as a business and also their major shareholders who are probably more risk averse than us crazy b@stards :-)
''Newcrest shorting GGP??
Reputation in tatters
Future deals with juniors compromised
Industry pariahs
I think not''
To secure themselves possibly the largest gold discovery in several generations and guarantee the future profits of the company for decades?
Possibly!?
Newcrest shorting GGP?
Arguments for
Targeted small area for MRE
Updated even less of that area for PFS to keep it under a tier one mine.
Accelerated works to trigger 5% FMV, before other targets investigated.
Arguments against
Reputation
Good working relationship with GGP - although SD having 5o form an experienced team to fight our corner
All of the above arguments for, can be explained by the need to keep Telfer operational.
I suppose it depends which side you are standing on, as to which one you want to believe.
Keep holding. Hopefully good news starts tomorrow evening.
If newcrest want all of haverion they will have to make an acceptable offer as the juri juri etc will carry on. An in the ground price for what may be a low estimate of whats in the ground won't achieve that . Taking on the experienced staff they have,ggp will demand a good deal and i can't see less than $3 billion. How much of that us shareholders would get will be nearer a quarter of that. But ggp would bevin a strong position. Last day for the shorters today, can't see them having much success going forward.
Lot of waffles been eaten this morning 5% will come when both parties agree terms:-)) My crystal ball tells me 13p a joke:-))
Crystal ball tells me gold mine is much money unless the James gang turn up and steal it:-)).
NCM will eventually take all of HAV. They want all of it. They may need to take all of GGP to be able to take HAV, but they will take at least HAV. My gut says later this year. But let’s wait and see.
The longer it takes them to take HAV / GGP, the more it will cost them.
any suggestion that Newcrest would be shorting demonstrates a really low level of understanding
Newcrest shorting GGP??
Reputation in tatters
Future deals with juniors compromised
Industry pariahs
I think not
What possible advantage would Newcrest gain by shorting GGP?
Hydro, isnt the shorter Newcrest ?
“The market” don’t know Jack about the 5% valuation. Silly to state that. Less than 4 weeks and we will all know where the cards fall between GGP and NCM.