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Well the end of day auction answered that point: https://invst.ly/u2pj9
Who knows - a good news RNS and a healthy opening price could secure 194, but it seems a big ask at the moment.
Only a week ago I was talking about 165 but despite a lacklustre day given Sarta and OP, G looks like it may recapture 180 in this 15 min view:https://invst.ly/u2p93 . Let's see what the UT dishes up. It wasn't too surprising to see it turned back just shy of the historic resistance at 194. There'd be no doubt about 180 or 194 if payments were on track: will be interesting to see the reaction if/when news emerges.
Hi Hydrogen,
yes, thanks for the tip at Aminex - it did indeed go up rapidly. I did a few ISA trades and overall lost out. I've still got my £12k of shares in the SIPP currently worth £9k and will sit on those for the 18 months to 2 years (to 3 years lol) required to see a potential 6 bagger according to Malcy's 3p shout. It seems baked in now that they have all their finances sorted. Just got to do the work. Here's my research on Aminex: https://lemming99.blogspot.com/2020/10/valuing-ruvuma-before-farm-out.html
I've got £40k in Independent Oil & Gas - IOG which I would recommend if you're looking for something on a 3 month timescale. The shares don't move much, and when you buy they tick up. I don't think there's much trading. Haven't tried selling any yet.
I've got too much to mention in Tullow, and enjoying that very much. It's about 75% of the SIPP and 100% of the ISA. I do have 5% in G too. I just updated my valuation model on them yesterday. https://lemming99.blogspot.com/2021/03/how-to-value-tullow-updated-model.html
Have fun all!
Cheers hydrogen.
In terms of Macro - Yes, green energy plays might just be starting up in this new green energy revolution! But oil is just as important if not more for foreseeable future and for oil price, just following Saudi A actions and words in.opec might be enough to determine oil price direction - they are like the federal reserve, you can't fight them and they will win eventually as shown from last year's events.
Fed and Powell will keep the QE on for long until US employment is fully back, and the market will keep partying until they decide to take the punchbowl away. Of course dollar might face the brunt of it which is good for commodities. But I would caution against miners now as they had a great run over the last year and most big ones like RIO, AAL etc. Are close to all time highs while oilies have been left in the dust - so flows might move to oilies from miners. Miners might still have upside but maybe not as much as oilies. Also remember as oil prices go up the costs of miners go up massively and hence their margins go down, as energy costs of extraction for miners is more than 50% of the total prod. costs, for example for copper extraction/production costs are around 50% of the production costs for big miners Kaz, Glen, etc. But it's all IMO and could be wrong.
In terms of Micro - Yes, it's PRD - Predator Oil and Gas, it's a Green Energy and also a gas exploration play (think TXP whose sp performance over last year has exactly been like GGP but in gas exploration space rather than gold exploration!) and best of all its Carbon Capture and Sequestration EOR business alone can underpin upto £50mn of market cap vs the current c. £20 mn, so massive gas drill is on top with no real value attributed. Obviously all IMO but give it a deeper look especially the CEO interviews and you might like what you find.
Yes, oilers are taking off although it might just be the start of a trend change from tech heavy / growth stocks to value stocks I.e. Oilers like GENL, GKP, SAVE, I3E and PHAR instead of heavily indebted ones who have debt maturities coming up like TLW, ENQ. Tlw especially has convertible bonds and it's refinancing coming due next quarter so chances are debt to equity might dilute Tlw a lot. Best to go with relatively strong balance sheet ones.
all IMO dyor
Hydrogen - Cheers for your past green energy stock suggestions.
If interested - Take a look at PRD. It's got a recently derisked Carbon Capture and Sequestration EOR business that's yet to come on the Green energy investors' radar, and also has a TCF scale low risk gas drill coming up. All for £22mn market cap.
Look at their 3 segments - all transformational in size. You might find interesting.
Haven't seen hasiba for a while here but he's in I3E in size which is also a great Canadian oil play c.10kbpd at £50mn Market cap.
All IMO dyor
fair point Boyobach, the sentiment I got when reading it was "we know we should be good citizens of the world, but hey, just look at our costs. What can we do?"
The other sentiment I pick up is similar to googling what does a cartel do?
A great week for G. Brent $70.1
Lemming: 'The average cost of production seems to be north of $70 in OPEC+....'
That's obviously not the cost of production but the level of OP needed for the respective banana republics to break-even economically. That's a very important difference.
I sliced a few today too but still left enough to make it worthwhile :)
I’m still holding most of my Gkp as I think there’s a fair bit to go there...let’s see.
And another lot at 185.60 ....
Hi Lemming99,
Interesting, however the oil analysts tend to be bullish ... I am not so sure it is going to be that simple but who knows.
At this price level, I cannot see what is going to prevent a glut in the market again. Maybe, I am too candid ...
Hi Tartine, this graphic says a lot to me. The average cost of production seems to be north of $70 in OPEC+
https://mobile.twitter.com/ARaj_Energy/status/1367490171827011590/photo/1
Just sold a lot at 186.72p.
Fairly happy with it.
How do you guys read the strenght of oil at the moment? Is it the old under-inverstment for years etc .... or the market expect the world economies to go out all guns blazing in the next few months ... or a mixture of both?
Personnally, I see the economic diffculties hitting the market in the months that will follow the withdrawl of all the various grants .... We will see.
On Genel front, we probably should see some news on the new wells soon .....
G at around 1.13m volume sp +4%
GKP around 1.4m sp +7%
Fair enough
Today might be a good trading opportunity with G, but - as always if you are essentially ‘long’ - the profit only gets measured when you re-acquire. So the eye has to be on the prospective fall-back price. Today’s rise is driven by OP but still only represents a ratio to Brent of under 2.7x. That’s not been an adequate sell indicator for me in the past. Added to which, G has been consolidating above 165 and today’s breakout looks like it could stick. It’s all looking good for a continued progression to 195 - if they get paid!
https://invst.ly/u1ps7
But don’t blame me if you hold and the price drops back below 160 because the KRG screw up again!
bankrupt travel stocks leading the market higher! Lol
Have to agree with that statement
Hi Boyo hope you are well mate. No I sold out too soon around 120p circa neutral. The shorting on it put me off a little and I still believe that this oil rally has got way way ahead of itself (although accept I’m wrong and the reopening euphoria will win out). Nothing really stands out as value at the moment including Genel. I’m not that optimistic on the economy but I’m in the minority
Hi Leem - are you still in PFC? saw a couple of your posts over there.
The human race needs to clean its act up but needs energy sources and oil hasn't been replaced yet - nor will be for a few years. Meanwhile, lack of investment in exploration and development mean there could be a supply crunch as the machinery of economic recovery kicks in.... could be G's last window of opportunity (having failed with all the previous ones), Ha!
It has been doing nicely since the end of October but a hiccup with KRG payments could easily send it back down - and they usually manage to thrust a spanner in the works at a critical juncture (like now). https://invst.ly/u1591
Thought I’d seen it all in this market, EV craze, penny stock ramps, excessive exuberance etc. Never thought I’d see in the thick of the worst global economic crisis witnessed oil shares and bankrupt travel stocks leading the market higher! Lol
470k of the 558k volume was the UT - frogs and buckets anyone....
my goodness this should be flying now, once it does start moving up beyond 170p I think it will be on a charge through 200p. O/T sold my Barclays holding last week at 163p, made a tidy 15% but sold too soon ..... timing... tricky little sucker
Here’s a long view (3 years) of G, against Brent x2.9 on the sp scale.
G is on the brink of consolidating above 165 - the baseline for its price during 2019. Hopefully this will be more permanent than the spikes of last June and a few weeks ago which took it briefly to around 180.
https://invst.ly/t--lw
If it does consolidate above this level then it brings 200+ into the prospective trading range.