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Correct Hasiba - in the end it is the price you can obtain v the price you paid that counts.
It is about how to play the market when opportunities become available and switching at the right time..
No rules or rational can be the reasons for an investor to succeed but only if you follow what the market is offering to you at certain time.. Genl is solid but to back one horse and hope for the best is not the winners game ..just imo. Mixture of 12 at least in my portfolios at all times..
Today the proceeds from G selling went into EUA ,odx and Eqtec...no recommendations intended here but always dyor first as I can be totally wrong in my selections..
GL genelians
Because of course this always rises like this in a falling market when everything else is collapsing.... doesn’t it? .... just normal price action......
Well Leem, the UT is the outcome of the after-hours SETS auction and -depending on orders placed via that system - may not be as close to prices quoted leading up to 16.30 as we both might have previously expected. In terms of closing prices, G has now eased back over three successive days. It may also have been influenced by, or have something in common with, GKP (blue here): https://invst.ly/re6z6 , in which case it may well run out of steam in coming days unless there is something more specific driving it. Either way, I think we'll soon see.
Been thinking the same Boyo, volume not large, weird UT all the time. The payment delays, projects being held back, capex and production down, oil not doing great but share price is so strong. Beats me unless it’s speculation of some description as you say
Yes Leem - but what?
Volumes are back to average levels so there's no apparent accumulation activity unless it's being very carefully managed.
If it's simply speculative in nature then it's potentially a bubble that could pop any time.
To be fair to G, we shouldn't be expecting much progress on projects demanding cap-ex right now and payment normalisation is a long way off, so hard to find a plausible reason for the recent rally apart from consolidation of the rise in early June into the 137 - 150 range.
Genel would ordinarily be around 120p now if it followed normal behaviour and or peers so something is up
Market seems to think something is afoot Boyo. Has done for a couple weeks whilst this continues to defy gravity and all other headwinds
G’s recent strength is not a figment of imagination and has already been more than just a two or three day spike. To demonstrate, here’s a daily chart of G v Chevron (blue) - the top oil performer in my long term comparison group since oil peaked at $86:
https://invst.ly/re4uq
By any measure, be it OP, FTSE100 or peer group, G seems to be defying gravity and today has been as good an example as any in that regard.
Here’s another view since March 1st and the COVID driven collapse:
https://invst.ly/re4ch
We’ve seen it do this before, of course, and, with the H1 statement less than a month off, it’s bound to lead to some speculation about what that might reveal.
But, in the meantime, it is difficult to see what has sparked the recent enthusiasm.
Yesterday I pointed out that G had previously encountered little resistance when moving up through 137 but had found some support when falling back. This morning G may have found that support again and, with Brent on the brink of potentially securing $43, there seems a fair chance that G will maintain its present level and maybe even build upon it. Having taken some profits earlier in the week, I’m currently ‘equal weight’ as far as my personal holding is concerned - so neither in buy or sell mode at the current sp.
The G:OP ratio is 3.19 (as of mid-day) - slightly above its 18 month average of 3.15, so the sp could be described as ‘normal’, although prevailing circumstances are far from that.
If G continues upwards then the next significant step could be in the 146-152 range, where both have previously offered resistance. https://invst.ly/rbziv
Together they represent a nominal ‘150’ barrier. I personally don’t imagine that G could get beyond this unless Brent is firmly over $45 and/or there is some significantly positive company-specific news. On which point we should bear in mind the prospect of the H1 statement which I assume will happen in about a month’s time.
No problem at all Bunks.
In your post
Me neither, no dungeon place for you then, and good luck with your trading pot, hope it works out for you. Apologies for getting the wrong end of the stick, you were clear I your post.
Closing price is only indicative of the last trade the share traded at...not as relevant .
There was a small (810 share) trade at 138 after the UT apparently. It smells doesn't it when the UT does not seem to bear a close relationship to the intraday prices ( which don't appear to have quite touched 137) ? We'll just have to wait till morning to see if it properly points to G securing the 137 level or if the sp now falls back. Brent continues to rise this evening so I guess there's a fair chance that G will continue upward tomorrow https://invst.ly/rbppw .
On the other topic - I'm sure Tartine is way too smart to make a massive punt that runs the risk of a damaging loss.
There are no perfect ways to invest - it's a risky business and the best we can do is try to calculate and mitigate the risks and hopefully maximise our returns. I've made too many mistakes to mention and G has provided me with plenty of learning opportunities. I may get the hang of it one day.
Watching and monitoring the unraveling developing events closely.....!
Read my post again ...that is exactly what I did ... and I don't pray anyway ??.
I've just been in the dungeon installing the social distancing stickers, there's quite a few LTH's in there still, hardly recognisable now, let's give Tartine a bit longer to decide what to do but I the meantime I've earmarked a suitably dark damp corner, it's not nice down there...
It can't be a nice feeling switching on hoping for a drop in sp and preying pasitive news hasn't landed. Somehow I think it won't be long before Tartine works out keeping a core holding alongside a trading pot to pass the monotony is the way to go. Much less stressful imo - imagine sitting here for so long and losing out through boredom.... Risky strategy
Yet again the magic UT above any price paid today. Be interested to find out what is going on as someone knows something. This should not be rising the way it is
Bunks...please open the Dungeon as I just spotted a mutiny by a fellow Genl long-standing member...”firm action is needed urgently “
Thank you Boyo,
I am just started this morning and I aim at doing exactly as you do. I am a bit bored just looking at it and your strategy is pretty much spot on. Sadly, this is not 25% of my holding .....
As long as they don't land something big then why not do it and even so with most of the holding untouched it is not much of a worry. Reading your posts for the last few years has been very helpful and hopefully this little trading is going to work out ....
I wish you the best of luck Tartine.
I've usually been quite conservative about trading , varying my average core holding in G by up to +25% (my overweight level) and down to - 25% (my underweight level). The tranches would usually be around 10% of the total. However during the worst part of the recent collapse I was rather more aggressive. As long as each trade makes a profit I'm happy. My days of 'averaging down' with G are gone - so I don't chase the price downwards. Each individual 'buy' (or sell) has to stand on its own feet as far as I'm concerned and if I make my target gain but miss out because the price continues upwards (or downwards) then I have no regrets. ATB.
Done 25000 shares gone. We will see when we buy back in ....
I am tempted to sell a few, the first in years .... as your strategy of trading seem to be quite astute and certainly more fun than watch it yoyo. I have decide to trade my way up ...