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Let's hope so Withoutt - I think we'll all be glad to see G back into the 190s - but yours is obviously a very good call - OP up and G performing better than of recent times (for good reasons)....
I'd love to see Hawkey in with a chance too but I don't think there's enough time for that just yet.
Brent touching $62 all good for tomorrow .
ATB
He certainly is bunks and it would be good news for us all if he carries the trophy tomorrow. If Withoutt wins outt then good for him but it won’t be the stronger platform we all need to see with G back onto that trend rather than bouncing back down from it. https://invst.ly/mpu33
Being picky about G, for a moment, it has actually been a bit weak today - back to just 3.1x OP and hasn’t closed at 3.2x yet this week - although managing it briefly intra-day. Let’s hope for better tomorrow: https://invst.ly/mptxl especially if OP holds firm.
In this last chart you can see how G has progressed ahead of the others over the last two weeks of trading - good to see GKP recovering too.
The Mayor is in the running again
I agree Leem, although I think the sp could move swiftly positive if market confidence in Sarta and Bina Bawi gains traction. My post was to acknowledge a very perceptible change in G's behaviour this week and a consequent change in my own expectations since I made my FC entry. There is now a real possibility that this week's FC winner could be somewhere near the middle of the pack - which is as it should be if we are making rational and realistic predictions:
Boyo 178
Wolfbag 184
Withoutt 189
Bunks 193
Hawkey 200
Broadland 202
ocelot 205
If Genel can convince the market that they can create success with the drill bit (QD and Sarta) and get bina bawi moving maybe just maybe this has some legs- could take time though
We are well into the week now and, together with G maintaining a stronger relationship with OP, we have seen some improvement in OP itself. These factors are combining to make the chart look rather more optimistic than it has of recent months and we are seeing signs that G may gain a foothold on the middle blue trend line here: https://invst.ly/mndik .
What we need for this, of course, is for G to close above 190 - preferably 191 - in the next one or two trading days.
Earlier today I mentioned that G seemed to have enjoyed a particularly strong run compared to Brent and its peers since 8th October. On closer inspection the divergence really seems to have started from the 10th. There doesn’t seem to be any obvious explanation as yet but it is very marked and not dissimilar to the effect seen during the buyback process. https://invst.ly/mbwr2
Quit right Ocelot! Always scope: some days offer just a tiny bit more encouragement than the compelling reasons that exist all the time.
There's always scope for the sp to move higher, Boyobach :-)
According to my reckoning, OP has averaged $64 so far this year but, if current levels are maintained, this would fall to $63 by January. G’s sp, meanwhile, appears to have averaged 194p to date, giving an average GvOP ratio of 3.03x.
As the GvBrent ratio has edged above 3.15x during today it’s perhaps worth mentioning the significance if it reaches 3.2x. Using prices at the close rather than intraday, I reckon that the G v Brent ratio has only equalled or exceeded 3.2x on 26 days this year - that’s 12% of the time. It has managed 3.3x or better about half as much, ie for only about 6% of the time.
So I think we should be encouraged by the recent strengthening of G v Brent, which is hopefully due to genuine progress on various fronts as outlined by Malcy in his blog today, as well as other reactions to the same PR event .
There's also scope for the sp to move higher today, as OP firms up: https://invst.ly/ma03q
Well something does seem to be driving the sp, Hydrogen.
There’s been a perceptible improvement in G’s sp since the 8th October, which is best demonstrated in this chart https://invst.ly/m8qnf which shows that Brent today is at the same level (0% gain) as on the 8th whilst G is up over 5% and the others are all down - GKP especially. PMO is not shown here btw - but has also had a good run.
Qara Dagh Being drilled Q2 next year. Is this going to be the next Peshkabi?
Rns on psc just out
Great analysis boyo as always and very pleasing where we currently are.
I am a ramper and ofcourse if you hold a share and its a bit mad not to support it.
However hand on heart I honestly believe Genel could be at the start of a huge upturn.
Theres are just some of the reasons why we could be at the beginning of a journey upward.
Tawke production increasing
Taq Taq production increasing
Sarta 15k starting production but could increase to 80k-100k BOPD.
Qara Dagh Being drilled Q2 next year. Is this going to be the next Peshkabir.
Bina Bawi...I honestly do not believe they would have visited this filed unless they were very very confident of oil and gas production...Game Changer.
So the story looks very exciting and I haven't even mentioned the 7% dividend.
There are many REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL......
Hawkey
Just to underline the cheerful aspect to G at the moment...
OP's 2019 peak was at around $73 in mid May - in case you blinked and missed it - and from that point to today (not throughout the period in between btw) G has performed better than most of the other usual suspects. G is matching RDS over the same period to today. https://invst.ly/m6pba . These things can be deceptive - PMO is also looking good at the moment, considering it has had a pretty dire time, this is due to some good news last week I believe.
Not too shabby as Hawkey might say...
It’s been a while since I paid much attention to G from a chart pov. This is because it is fairly slavishly locked to OP. That situation hasn’t really changed much but recently it has bubbled up above OP slightly and is having a good day today so far, moving up despite a falling OP, so it’s probably worth a recap on what we need from G.
In simple terms, the green trace on this chart https://invst.ly/m6csg is 3xBrent (LCO) closing prices with its current or last closing price (x3) marked by the green dashed line. The daily candles are G, of course with the latest price marked by the red dashed line.
In general we need G to be above 3x Brent by the best possible margin. When it falls below then it is underperforming relative to its average performance v Brent. When G starts to really perform then I’ll be able to plot it against 3.5x or even 4x Brent. As a guide, if G gets to the levels indicated by recent broker figures - approaching 300p - then the ratio at $60 Brent will be 5x. Ha! So now you get the reason I’m not hanging on their every word just yet.
Other lines on the chart are:
Pale red parallels: the previous and now weaker rising trend
Blue parallels: the current rising trend.
Orange: an historic falling trend which G hasn’t bettered since August 2018 (so don’t dismiss it as a potential factor as G progressively approaches it).
Grey horizontals mark potential resistance (going up) and support (going down) - an sp may simply cycle between these
If G starts to make headway then you can expect to see it punch upwards through successive trend lines.