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165k ut and 470k volume for the day... I'll take it, we've had some decent finishes recently - good weeked all
Yes bunks - swings and roundabouts in the parks may be shut but they continue in the market...
G back below 3x OP, which was inevitable at some point. It's starting to look like the new 'top' has been established assuming OP stays south of $45 - which seems likely. https://invst.ly/r6r7y
A very poor day for G:
1) Dropped below 3x OP for first time since March.
2) Biggest fall amongst the three KRI Cos.
3) Effectively back down to the nominal 118 support line and at the bottom of the medium-term trend it has been following since early April.
https://invst.ly/r5wa1
Cont....
My real example was FARN I bought previously at low price then it went up to 395p then started to drift towards 350p ...I sold it and never looked back...
Just an example...for illustration of my strategy...
Very happy for you making some profits on CWR..
Rangor.... the share price and market value is determined by sentiment and fundamentals and they drive each other to determine the valuations by the market...
IMO CWR has both and looks strong.....then its up to you to sell or keep.
No recommendations from me ...sorry as I wouldn’t feel good to do this..
Though in my case I always put a target to sell if the the share I made good profits on starting to decline a certain percentage from its high point..to save my profits.
GL
O/T Re Ceres: Well that's what I decided to do Rangor - I sold 50% at around the top today but obviously there's the calculated risk that I may not get a good price when I top back up. But for every trade that doesn't pan out there'll be another one in due course. With shares that are trending up you can jump in and out and accrue profits - much harder to do with one that's falling, like G in H2 2018!
I've also been buying a few CWR (thanks Hasiba!), and was just wondering today whether sell a few in anticipation of a SP pull back from the highs.
Well it's good to know there are still a few people interested in G.
I happen to find it easier to spot a trend and potential limits from a picture. I also like to figure out when G is being influenced by something other than OP and perhaps moving a bit too far ahead of it.
Yes G came a cropper, with the rest of the market, on the 11th but, TBF, the price had already been cycling back down for three days prior, so there was plenty of opportunity to sell a few in anticipation (15 minute chart with Brent in green): https://invst.ly/r5em5 .Interesting to see that lift to the closing price again today.
And just as Friday and yesterday looked like they could be good opportunities to buy G if you were minded too, there are some obvious levels where a subsequent profit might be taken: https://invst.ly/r5er6
Thanks to Hasiba I'm doing rather nicely with Ceres (CWR) - that's been quite a nice one for selling highs and topping back up on lows. But I would not do it without a chart to guide me.
HUh?
Continuing the subject of sheep, idiots and crazy....
How does today's UT come out at the day's peak price, hit briefly hours beforehand in the morning, and a full $1.8 above the day's apparent closing price ?
https://invst.ly/r5097
Someone technical with an abacus please explain.
It may look good now but, of course, it sets a high bar for tomorrows open. Plus it makes a mockery of charts based on open and closing prices
Hey - good result today.
Looks like G's lower prices got tested and the SP may not be going in that direction. Phew!
https://invst.ly/r4--y
BP have apparently got big write-downs in mind - smart accounting maybe? I've heard that before somewhere.
Let's hope the API don't mess things up tomorrow and that EIA are on the same page as them on Wednesday....
It's extraordinary to think that the market slavishly follows the inventory of a land-locked tank farm in Oklahoma with no direct export capability. Ha! But that's the crazy product we are invested in.
The market is largely sheep, one loud bang and they follow the first idiot to move....
Something of a battle to stay 'on trend' (orange) today (following on from my 'Mid June onwards post, yesterday) .
Could get sticky if it slips from here.
https://invst.ly/r4wmt
'Chameleon' : yes bunks - Trading Guy' and 'Mr Long-Term' are often at odds with each other. Today, 'Trading Guy' won the argument - TBF the chart I posted earlier was irresistible! - especially on a 15' view. I did keep cash back in the event of an unlikely drop to 110 ish. To be perfectly honest (I rarely trust people who start a sentence like that btw) I have come to realise that I'd have done much better over the years if I'd traded G more aggressively with no expectation of long-term gain. As a 'keeper' it's been a pretty rubbish relationship. It's a shame 'trading guy' didn't win the argument last Friday!!
Also:
'thought we'd claw at least a few %back in a surprisingly buoyant market today' - that's G for you bunks, often lagging, often leading but rarely 'in sync'. 'Tis a bu55er to be sure. Despite the lack of spark today, things are looking good from here, I'd say. 130 shouldn't be such a tough nut to crack next time and 137 is only a matter of time and OP above $40. 152 doesn't look likely to me unless OP gets to $45. July could be good for that - fireworks for Independence Day maybe? Ha!
Bloody hell, with a 12% drop yesterday thought we'd claw at least a few %back in a surprisingly bouyant market today
Ever the chameleon Boyo.
GKP looks to have the legs 'from here', volume much better than G, appears to be in catch up mode over there.
A longer term view - showing Brent (green) - is perhaps more enlightening. G always follows OP except when it doesn't: https://invst.ly/r3wak .
In a reversal of intentions, partly on the basis of that trend, I added some G today - keeping cash back in case of further market drops.
Despite this week's setbacks, G remains on a discernible upward trend providing it drops no further:
https://invst.ly/r3uup
bunks....I just called Mystic Meg ,she answered and then hanged up!
Though weather forecast seems better tomorrow...
Back to gyrations and volatility....Not happy....
Carnage on wall street - 6%
OP getting battered
Hasiba, we might have to resume our septic peg Dow Jones predictions
Well there’d been a lot of talk about a general market pull-back after the recent rally from March lows and it continued steeper today. If you add in the fact that G had done exceptionally well last week - and was starting to look toppy v OP - this week's sharp pull-back was on the cards.
Not necessarily a disaster, unless you happen to be in need of the cash immediately, but it offers a buy-back opportunity if you took profits last Friday. So, unless you have already done so, immediate interest turns to the potential ‘bottom’ of this phase, where 118 and 112 now appear as immediate possibilities:
https://invst.ly/r3khj
As we can see in the 15’ chart from Friday’s close, https://invst.ly/r3ki7 ,G and GKP are both disproportionately down compared to Brent, the majors and DNO. That may even-out over the next couple days and thus soften any further fall by G
Whilst I might commit ‘profits previously taken’ to G at this stage, I do not intend using ‘new cash’ in order to add until I have a better idea of where the ‘new bottom’ will establish - so I’m personally unlikely to be buying above 112.
The drop back was to be expected - but let’s hope G finds support at 137 or higher.
Since Friday’s close (x15 minute): https://invst.ly/r2lgh
Daily Chart with 50 (yellow), 200 (teal) moving averages: https://invst.ly/r2lg5
EIA weekly report tomorrow the API is a just a warm-up act IMO:
How Accurate Are EIA And API Inventory Reports?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Accurate-Are-EIA-And-API-Inventory-Reports.html
Here's an article I found interesting based on how long moving averages (50&200) can be used to assess the market recovery - in this case the S&P, It concludes that:
' Overall, it seems that for now, there have been many stocks that have benefited from the stock market rally. However, it appears at least based on the one indicator, the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average, there may be a breather that is coming. Meanwhile, the stocks above their 200-day moving average have a lot of work that still needs to be done before we are likely to see a longer-term sustainable rally in the equity markets.'
I thought I'd check how G is doing by that metric (200 in green, 50 in yellow):
https://invst.ly/r1ri8
Full article: https://uk.investing.com/analysis/are-stocks-topping-out-this-momentum-indicator-says-maybe-200442531
An excellent day ending an excellent week for G and many others (pretty much most of the market). Here is my usual ‘bunch of five’ v Brent and FTSE since March 1st:
https://invst.ly/r16k8 Note that G has finally caught up with the FTSE100 over the period - the first of the UK companies on this chart to do so.
And here they are for the week: https://invst.ly/r16ls
Enjoy the weekend - time to start planning for the next phase (for whichever direction the market takes).
Agree with Hydrogen's comments , BTW, although I do tend to think that G is getting ahead of itself and Brent
Seriously impressive today. With oil at 40, questionable payments, production lower I have no idea how this is performing at its arguably strongest ever!
Back at the beginning of March, when Brent was around $51, G was trading at between 147 and 152 (152 appears to be the next significant resistance). As we can see here, G is now running rather ahead of OP: https://invst.ly/r12ia
My thought would be whether G is actually stronger now than it was on March 1st?
Obviously optimism/sentiment seems stronger but as far as revenue and Free Cash Flow is concerned……
On a good day in 2019, before payment issues and COVID, G could reach 200p with Brent at $60. My point being that progress from here - and certainly above 152 - will increasingly be reliant on OP and positive company-specifc developments.