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Ooof - what happened to G at the end ? Brent v the rest for the week:
https://invst.ly/setgw
Considering the drama over on the RDSb board, I expected to see a bigger difference between the major and G over the week. Only goes to show what Genelians take in their stride, with both companies around 7% down since last Friday’s close :
https://invst.ly/sc08h
Well you can't complain about that ending to the week: https://invst.ly/s9bbm - unless you happen to be heading into lockdown, of course.
Just going through the motions here - a rubbish week for RDS and G in particular: here are the usual runners since last Friday:
https://invst.ly/s6hyn
Well there’s no denying G ending the week on a flourish: hitting 120.55 before closing the week at 119, putting G at the top of this week’s leaderboard and at its strongest v Brent for over three weeks:
https://invst.ly/s3lim
The refinancing RNS was obviously well received and G may even be back on a positive trend, although that’s a seriously optimistic reading of the runes:
https://invst.ly/s3ljz
Well done Broadland. It wasn’t much of a week was it? and perhaps we should be grateful it wasn’t worse:
https://invst.ly/s0vmt
G was actually up by 2% over the week - largely thanks to prices this afternoon, including the end of day auction, which was only worth £27k. All the others in negative territory, with Brent -7% and DNO -10%.
No US market on Monday to look forward to, so perhaps a quiet day.
There’s very little in the news to suggest that OP is going to pick up, either - quite the contrary: https://uk.investing.com/analysis/with-oil-price-in-a-holding-pattern-3-factors-could-trigger-its-next-move-200446167
NB this quote from the article:
Iraq has reduced exports from southern Iraq significantly over the past 2 months, but exports from the Kurdish autonomous region in the north have not been curtailed.
It seems that despite significant pressure, Iraq is simply unable to comply with its quota restrictions, both for financial reasons and because Baghdad lacks the authority and power to control what goes on in northern Iraq.
The view from last Friday (NB: Brent movements are based on the November contract which technically doesn’t become front month till this weekend):
https://invst.ly/ryq3u
A bad week for G and GKP but, hey, no volatility no trading fun. Pay particular attention to where DNO and Chevron have ended the week - the non-UK market for oil co’s seems to have been stronger. Over time, G invariably tracks closer to Chevron than RDS, for example. That comparison alone suggests that G should be over 130p. Despite that, G is still doing OK in relation to the covid+OP crash in March, here’s the longer view including BP and PMO:
https://invst.ly/ryq1t
which means that if you’ve managed to trade G successfully over the last six months you should be much better placed than when all this nonsense started.
On checking my own performance with G over the last eighteen months, when my average cost per share had risen to 1.58 during the £2+ days, I see that I’ve managed to extract a significant net amount of cash so that I’ve reduced my capital exposure by 30% whilst the number of shares I hold is only 12% lower than it was then. Someone trading more aggressively could have done a lot lot better, especially if they managed to accumulate in the rather tense period below 100p.
Robbie - my last line about BBSD being imminent was a joke - obvious to regulars here but, just in case....
Sorry bunks - I do hope one comes along soon.
Well if it goes down, I will get some more . Thank you for pointing out the trend. So far so good for the little trading ... it makes watching the action more interesting. I wish I started years ago, lol! Still a long term hold for me ....
New oil in Q4 should help (potentially BB ... you never knows) but we have to bear in mind that it is only in early days for the economic crisis following Covid. I think it will be a bumpy next 6 to 12 months and this should affect us one way or the other.
A rubbish week ending on a rubbish day, with the Oil Co’s dropping ahead of OP and dragging or being dragged by the FTSE100. Here’s the week since last Friday:
https://invst.ly/rvxi5
GKP is top this week but Gawd knows why - did they get paid or something? I popped over to the noisy neighbours briefly but didn’t see anything enlightening. Can you buy shares in Kool Aid? IMO, RDS is now on the brink of a plunge back down below £10, what dull mug around here suggested back in March that RDS might be a lifeboat in troubled waters?
G, bless it, looks destined for a drop into the 120’s unless the laws of gravity don’t apply to sp’s that fall out of trend AND below support:
https://invst.ly/rvxin
Don’t rely on the 129 line - it may have offered resistance on the way up but it’s not been tested on the way down and 117 is the next support of any consequence. If you are in ‘buy’ mode then my advice, FWIW, would be ‘sit back, wait and watch’.
And as Friday Club ain’t much fun when G is likely going downwards, my new personal rule is not to enter unless my punt is above the current sp. So, because I’ve been confidentially assured by a reliable source that a BBSD is imminent, I’ll go for 150 if I’m asked.
Overall a ‘nothing week’ for G, although, as I mentioned earlier, there’s a worrying tendency for the sp to creep downwards, flirting with the prospect of dropping out of the trend that has been pushing it upwards since early April whilst also losing ground v OP, where the ratio is 0.1 below average at 3.06x. https://invst.ly/rt5i3
RDS had a moment in the sun midweek but it didn’t last - the major has clearly upset the market deeply since ditching the sacred divi. Chevron remains the benchmark for me in terms of measuring how G is doing - so here’s that long-term comparison (along with Brent) since October: https://invst.ly/rt5hl
Well done Mark.
Not surprisingly G is bottom of the rankings for this week:
https://invst.ly/rq06b
Despite the market disappointment yesterday and today's closing auction, G continues to lead the Covid-19 list from March 1st, also ahead of the FTSE100 over the period - but only just:
https://invst.ly/rq05z
It’s worth remembering just how much some of the contenders have to go in order to catch up: RDS may be at an attractive level but it’s not a nimble mover ordinarily.
Well a big wooden spoon to the majors (RDS and Chevron) this week. The market seemed surprised by the RDS Q2 numbers although enough hints had been dropped.
https://invst.ly/rn1ow
G and GKP were level pegging at the top of the bunch with DNO trailing them slightly.
On a very long term view, G is doing well under all the challenging circumstances and ‘above par’ against Brent: https://invst.ly/rn1s7
Systic Peg was wrong this week unfortunately.
Tuesday was a bit of an anomaly then? Pity - a bizarre profit grabbing opportunity although spikes are difficult to trade - they can presage a continuing rise and the FOMO factor kicks in for many investors. In the worst case you can sell half way up the rise only to face profit dilution (or worse) if the retrace isn’t deep enough. So, Tuesday was really only good if you were able to realise a profit without dilution on buy-back.
Today’s action leaves G below 152 support but just perched on two trends at 150,
https://invst.ly/rk3z3
giving a max sell/buy-back profit of about 20p from Tuesday if you were very lucky. The sp is still rather toppy v OP in my estimation (I daren’t mention my current target for G buy-back at the risk of being accused of blatant de-ramping). Suffice it to say, today’s G:Brent ratio is about 3.5x, the eighteen month average is 3.15x and the 5 day MA is about 3.6x. But perhaps it’s toppy for good reasons that I’m oblivious to and which some were prepared to shell out 170p or more for.
Whatever the case, G was overtaken by both GKP and Chevron in the weekly parade: https://invst.ly/rk3yg
But it remains ahead of Chevon (and well ahead of the others btw) in my somewhat arbitrary comparison from Early October: https://invst.ly/rk3xy
G was slowed down to some extent today by its best challenge yet on the upper blue trend line at 149 - below which it can only be described as levelling out. Captured it too - let’s hope it can hold onto it on Monday.
https://invst.ly/rhaz6
So, whilst G may be bottom in this week’s running order since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/rhasw
that’s the price of leading the group for a few weeks and encountering a barrier. It was only to be expected at some point - RDSb and GKP, in particular, have some serious catching up to do. DNO on steroids today it seems.
G remains leader of the group since Mar 1st: https://invst.ly/rha-y
Another week and another win for G - just ahead of GKP over the week:
https://invst.ly/renj7
RDS dropped sharply with the US market on Thursday, along with Chevron which reported today - both majors bottom of my table for this week with DNO fairing little better.
G also the leader since March 1st: https://invst.ly/renl9
It seems the FTSE100 line had been dropped off the chart yesterday - it's included here: https://invst.ly/rc7dv
Well a full week on from last Friday’s wrap and G has continued to make progress:
https://invst.ly/rc1-b
If you glance back to last week’s you’ll see that G has made steady strides against OP, the FTSE100 and the other featured oil co’s over the past fortnight. It’s pretty impressive - and I don’t pretend that I can explain it.
It does mean that G’s performance since Mar 1st has come close to matching that of the leader, Chevron, and far outpacing oil major RDS. Fellow KRI producer DNO has done almost as well over the period although GKP has suffered severely - a grim 40% down compared to G’s -7%. Chevron is due to report for Q2 in three weeks and it remains to be seen if write downs and other negative news will follow a similar pattern to RDS.
https://invst.ly/rc2l2
Yes bunks, it did. Would have been nice if the momentum of BSD had kept rolling - but who knows? Cracking 130p at $40 Brent is a big ask.
And there was you saying so much for BSD, made all the difference this week...
So here are the usual comparisons over the five days since last Friday's close:
https://invst.ly/r9fov
G doing OK, compared to sector peers, despite the irritating effect of UT's on some closing prices .
That Was The Week That Was: Five days of dropping back with G regrettably leading the pack (over 16% down):
https://invst.ly/r40uf
Never mind. Next week should be better.
Chart= 15 min review of the week from last Friday’s close, G, GKP, DNO, RDSb, Chevron Brent (LCO/August), FTSE 100.