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i think you're talking about the record date
The annual dividend of $25 million is expected to be paid on 2 July 2021, based on a record date of 25 June 2021.
no its tomorrow the 25th
guess GKP is Ex Divi today, hence the drop over there.
It's a good start finishing above 160p, looking forwards to that Payment RNS on the mat tomorrow or Friday.
oh the anticipation ...tick tock
received my Divi today, brightened my mood slightly, I'll be a happy camper at 200p.
I reckon next payment RNS should clarify some concern in here....
should be soon
Just 185 would do me for starters- some kind of parity with pre-KRG ‘red letter’ day:
https://invst.ly/v7ye4
Glad Ammu is feeling so positive these days.
GLA
yeah and the 3 before that were red, it's the May 12th to May 28th period that hurt us, even considering Ex Divi on the 13th, at the moment we're just rolling with the market. -12.04% on 13th & -4.38% on 19th.
If your opinion is still we should be 200p already I don't see how you can be ultra positive Ammu ---- moaning is a bit strong btw
sp has been blue for the past 3 day's ....
some still moaning as usual...
Hydrogen, You're quire correct that we're all willing participants in this investment / drama / reality show. We all have various strategies and I'm happy to take a gamble waiting patiently for fundamentals of cheap oil production in KRG to be reflected once more in Genel's share price. Most of these realistic comments below sprung from an attempt to explain to you why the share price isn't the £2.50 odd you thought it should be a few weeks ago.
It's in everyone's interests (shareholders and KRG locals) that oil extraction and sales continue so fingers crossed they can sort it all out but payments will need to be regular for 6 months plus before bigger holders pile in and drive the price up. No major moves in next 6 months expected by me - but I like the divi.
I think as LTH's we're entitled to scrutinize every element of company communications but you're right, I probably over cooked it somewhat, it's in my nature im afraid, I do tend to think the detail is important (like most of us). The good news is it wouldn't take much to polish up their act, as we've seen next door. I took take your point though, these RNS's are bombed out with little peer review / governance, I don't imagine Buffalo Bill is in his 5th floor office in Broadway at 0700am each time a release is drafted .... Lets hope none of this gets worse because my patience is being seriously tested with all aspects of my investment here.
I think the doubt and uncertainty rightly expressed here can cause us to over-analyse the contents of each RNS. We’ve collectively made that mistake in the past - myself as much as anybody. I’ve found over the years that they are best/safest read at face value without too much interpretation. I also believe that G are obliged to correct any RNS that is, or proves to be, misleading but they are not obliged to confirm individual payments. Given the circumstances, I do expect an RNS when they receive payment for April’s production which must then provide clarity about the status of receivables recovery and override payments up to that point. It’s worth remembering that G was generally performing in step with the rest of the oil sector up until the KRG’s unilateral decision to slow the rate of recoveries which, unsettling as it was, fell well short of being a default. Providing they do not default on payment for production and overrides, the slower rate of receivables recovery for 2020 is highly irritating but is not a game changer in my view. I also think that there will be better exit opportunities in the next month or two for those who feel they’ve had enough - although that’s a purely subjective comment that takes no account of individual risks and exposure.
They should have said they're in discussions about it, the usual BS, that little bolt on not only set an expectation but indicates there is no dialogue, its also not in keeping with the diplomatic approach Jim quite rightly refers to - a bit passive aggressive.. Not good.
Ok - yes!
I'm saying they should have left it at that, and not said "Genel expects to receive both payments shortly"
Unless I’ve misunderstood you, bunks, I think G did exactly as you want in terms of giving the expected arrears payment details. This is from the payment RNS:
Assuming the proposed revision to the terms of recovery stands, the recovery payment will be $3.1 million. The override payment will be $8.2 million.......
I have to say the notion that we have the override / recovery payment(s) and haven't advised the market is unlikely and if so, highly irresponsible. I think it comes back to schoolboy communications again, you either report monthly payments or you don't, well in our case we said we wouldn't and then when things got interesting we decided to report on them again, sort of:
"Genel expects to receive both payments shortly"
sets an expectation and you can't say that and then not disclose if it's been received as expected.
They could/should have taken the noisy neighbors approach and said
"the Company has engaged with the KRG to discuss its proposal to amend arrears repayment terms as announced on 13 May 2021. Based on such proposal, the March 2021 arrears repayment would be gross $x.x million"
DNO certainly hasn't set any expectations either.
Again, they could have played this way better - What are they going to say when the next monthly payment lands with no interim Over-ride / recovery. I'll continue to check my inbox but my faith is diminishing with each day.
Surely they people to buy as well :-)
the payment issue is not specific to Genel.
Gkp and DNO share price is doing well so I believe it's just MM's knowing no news till Aug just having a bit of fun and getting people to sell.
I guess if we try to look at events from a KRG perspective it all makes a bit more sense.
In an area with many calls on limited funds and a very delicate political situation, paying IOCs is recognised as necessary for the long term but doesn't achieve anything for local population or politicians in the short term.
So, they pay what they can, based on local priorities, exacerbated by difficulties in getting federal money from the Iraqi govt (whom in turn don't get much credit from voters for passing money to an oil rich KRG).
The recent announcement that KRG will get 6 months of backdated Iraqi federal payments will helpfully assist KRG cashflow and allow local short term commitments to be balanced with longer term needs (such as paying IOCs).
Am sure Genel and GKP get all this verbally, but are encouraged not to publicise any comments that might impact the delicate balance of local / national politics.
Out and out confrontation with KRG won't work, so softly, softly is only viable approach.
Guess the uptick in Brent takes 3 or 4 months to result in more money in KRG's coffers and hence flexibility to pay IOC's anything other than the bare minimum.
Fingers crossed that resumption of federal payments to KRG allow compliance with previous payment agreements with IOCs.
You are not the only one bunks - thanks for the candid post
My thoughts are similar. We often discuss the corruption evident in the region but the fundamental instability of the KRI economy is a constant risk. The latest payment issue was triggered in November 2019 by a Lebanese bank failure rather than any obvious corruption, nevertheless it doesn't inspire confidence in KRG competence/ risk management.
I have also contemplated exit, however there are obvious positives in progress currently - aren't there always? - and my approach is to set an appropriate stop loss level at which my exit will trigger if I'm not 'at the wheel'. It's not what I want to happen but it will at least protect my capital in the event that things suddenly drop below predicted poor performance levels. G have left an element of doubt about the receivables payment from last month but it won't be the first time that they have been shy about reporting payments. Having given guidance that the payment was expected shortly - within the expected time period - then it could be argued that a further RNS was only required if the guidance proved to be wrong. The next update should clarify a great deal of our current optimistic suppositions. With OP and production levels rising, there are strong arguments to suggest that the sp should head upwards and I will be moving my stop-loss accordingly. If it triggers a bit prematurely then so be it - I can always buy-back if I'm so inclined. The recent tragic cable-car accident near Stresa, Italy (a journey I've made myself) reminded me that taking risky trips with no emergency brake can be catastrophic. ATB
I am reaching somewhat of a tipping point in terms of my involvement here.
The lack of consistent KRG payment is priced into the SP at these levels for sure, seemingly for G more than some of the others imo however, unless the lack of March override / receivable recovery payments are at least acknowledged as being (a) in discussion or (b) settled prior to the next monthly payment, I fear this could get a lot worse in terms of what is priced into the SP. I suppose receiving the monthly payment revenue is the biggie but the fact I'm thinking about fundamental payment as 'lucky' speaks volumes. Unless the vague KRG statements have indeed been misinterpreted, which again needs clarifying with the KRG and investors.
I am seriously considering my positions here. GLA