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I agree Boyo. This is now just a gamble as you cannot predict :
1) when/if payments will resume
2) what the effects of the economic crisis (which is still to come)
Praying might be an option for those of you who believe ...
Personally, I am more worried about the more general crisis but regarding Genel it would seem prudent to look at cash and asset preservation rather than being all guns blazing about assets, we will be paid etc ...
The very large rise in the past few days might hint at something extra-"ordinary" happening but it is very difficult to know what ... TO might happen in the end ....
GLA ... Testing times ...
So, after carefully building back up over the last week, I'm now back down to 40% of what I was holding prior to the OP crash....
With the current KRG situation I think that's about the limit of what I'd want to risk but I don't rule out trading on a day by day basis. With no payments likely, I can't see how G's sp can recover as quickly as others in the market. If I'd known about the Lebanon bank story on Wednesday I'd have ditched the lot at 116.
That's a 5minute chart so I'm talking intra-day - sorry should have been clearer. Only an opinion.
I have sold 50% of my G this morning. I de-risked just over a week ago and then re-acquired most of it and did some trading on the way. I've now offloaded back to where I was immediately before the results day, 19th.
Was strong but last 2 days this has been battered
you mean intraday or close Boyo? Currently hitting the daily low of 89.48
So, will G continue in the blue trend today? If it does then 90p won't hold....
https://invst.ly/q9buj
Yep. I also think the sp is currently pricing the company at a nominal 80p + the dividend, on which basis it might remain fairly settled provided OP does not fall further. That roughly 3.1x OP +10p .
Lebanon bank 'shizzle':
https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1kwbrjj7pczrz/lebanon-depositor-bailin-39may-be-the-only-way39-to-save-the-banking-sector
Ammu...Lebanese not Lybian bank!!!
The country just defaulted on Eurobonds... capital controls n shizzle...
(does not mention 2020 as far as I can see) - - obviously mentions the budget issue but not specifically Oil Co payments, although the picture is very grim indeed.
Thanks Ammu, here's one source (does not mention 2020 as far as I can see):
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/032520-iraqs-krg-delays-oil-payments-with-cash-stuck-in-lebanese-bank-sources?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=plattsoil&utm_content=edffc0e8-4954-489f-9ec6-9b48f8e76bb6&utm_campaign=oilnews
sorry - overslept - a few got through
It’s all over Twitter with krg can’t access money tied into some dodgy Libyan bank
Well done to those that saw the selling opportunity, garbage share and sector
Source for that Ammu?
Krg can’t pay monies in 2020....
Here we go
https://invst.ly/q9849
Back to normal. Usual Genel
Well bunks, you are doing well at the barricades.
OP and the market are generally retreating a little today but G has so far held the line and isn't readily giving up on the nominal 100p support.
We are boyo, and we still haven't seen Hawkey.... Weekend might be interesting considering the eomonth early next week eh
It does look that way (and it is purple rather than blue, as you said, if your screen is any good) Ha!
However, G is not easily giving up on 100 (98 to be pedantic). Defying gravity given the circumstances.
https://invst.ly/q8zye
Quite a performance given OP. I guess Hasiba and Bunks really are turning sellers back at the border?
So red or blue?
https://invst.ly/q8y6c
G working quite hard to stay on the red track at the moment...
I agree with H's comments.
It's a bit toppy at the moment as far as I'm concerned and my assessment is optimistic as regards the KRG related risks .
Directors don't necessarily study the sp in detail and it's rather easier for them to buy than to sell as the latter has a negative impact on the company - so they tend to be locked-in for the very long term. In that respect, around a quid is OK. But for us PI's, given the current circumstances and all ready 'in' quite deep at a personal level, it may be a very different matter. Each 5p at this level is 5%....
Another director buying at 109 now
Sure...
i really dont see why any fund or insider would rush to buy when outlook guarantees a downward trend.
also its not a question of valuation i'm bringing but the sheer coincidence of so many insiders shuffling around money within such a short time period... has never before happened not even during the last time prices hit sub 100p let alone the 50s in 2016.
Let's see...