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Hi Boyo...You are right about your suspicion of Gkp and the many PIs investors lost more or less all their money few years ago 2016 when a huge share consolidation took place so you will notice over the BB there many either discourage you from investing or dislike new investors buying Gkp because they still feel very bitter ... but who can blame them!
Well luckily I was not investing then but joined only recently and built my holdings from around 57 p and last one was today at around 81.7 p so over all my average around 18% in profit so far..
Gkp management planning and style are very different from G...and as you know they have a huge oilfield but recently because of the Coronavirus they stop drilling on many fields and sent workers home but the production fields production continues at 38k bpd...the Future investing growth is on hold and so is the dividends for now...the ceo is paying himself a fat salary but he is an experienced and brutal in planning and execution and saved Gkp from bankruptcy ...
The SP is now equal to the huge cash in free cash not accounted for valuable assets ,and the small debt due in 2023 and well covered..so bid is a possibility too at the current sp discount which I think it’s a manipulation by big boys for a low ball bid or to fill their boots before the rise...
That is why the severe volatility in SP during day trading..
Return on equity and capital is far better than even G but the equity and SP in the hands of institutions and hedge funds and PIs has little control as they only hold 32% of the total..while G is over 50%..
I have a target to exit as I do in all my oilers and Gkp imv is a good bet on value and to less extent quality...and a possibility of a bid or merger..
I have 10 oilers and all doing ok apart from two of them in a loss..
Oil price wouldn’t bother me much at present as I exploited it and bought many oilers at a very cheap price ...I always invested in commodities mainly though I have a couple in bio pharma too..
GL and another casino day tomorrow..
GKP is certainly interesting Hasiba - I don't often look at it (one Kurdy risk is quite enough for me) but the sentiment is obviously out of sync with G and I really don't know why:
https://invst.ly/qg20x
The 'market collapse' gap is 115-136 over there but, unlike G and many others, GKP has never got close to it. It's either very good value right now or there's something not quite right or investors over there are way more cautious than G holders (was not always the case). If it's the latter then I can't say I disagree with them. Oil and Oil related is probably going to be a bumpier ride than usual - and it's never been exactly smooth.
OP will bounce quicker than we think....
Historical boom and bust all there to see over decades of oil ..
Every bust cycle is followed by a boom one..
Absolutely no fear of this volatility..
Today added more to my existing holding ...Hur,Gkp and Pmo and if G was going to 116 p I would have added more too...
“Balls of steel“
WTI getting hammered, was 10% down 5 mins ago .... doesn't bode well and adding to the disparity with brent which is only 6.6% down lol
Agreed, Boyobach, it's become very difficult to pull up new posts (I keep getting "service not available") and it's not always easy to post either.
LSE seems to be playing up, fifth attempt to post….
Yes indeed Ocelot, bunks as I echo below…G might easily have been around 110 on recent performance v Brent, although 116 would have probably held. So better than 120 is very positive.
A week in the life of G in 15 minute segments v RDS and Brent:
https://invst.ly/qfzn9
Pretty good considering - which is not a guarantee, of course.
If anything rather stronger than RDS although the two broadly track over the period, with G naturally more volatile, it’s when they noticeably diverge that things get more interesting.
As far as today went - here are the usual suspects (in 5min steps) plus, because it may now be of more interest, the price of WTI as well as Brent:
https://invst.ly/qfzr8
The scale of the WTI drop and GKP’s volatility stand out, along with G and RDS failing to observe social distancing - two best mates for the moment.
Thought Genel held up remarkably well, given that Brent (oanda) was down about 9% from 4.30pm last Thursday to 4.30pm today.
Thought Genel held up remarkably well, given that Brent (oanda) was down about 9% from 4.30pm last Thursday to 4.30pm today.
I'll take 121.6p today - good luck Jack btw
Thanks Boyo,
Without a doubt, you have been one of the very best contributors to this board and your technical analysis has been first class.
I feel sure that when the dust settles in 12-months or so, Genel will be extremely well placed to grow.
For me however, there are just too many "Ifs and buts" atm, and the Iraqi / Kurdy political and finacial situation if far too uncertain over this period of adjustment.
Take care and hope you eventually get your break even.
Jack
ATB Jack. Maybe you'll find a nice re-entry.
If you sold above 127 then there was up to 10p to be made on re-entry this morning.
As a LT holder of G I remain invested but at a substantially lower level of exposure. I do regard 129 as about the top intra-day , with 127 being the resistance for closing/opening as far as I'm concerned. The trading range of 116-129 seems established for the moment.
Fully agree Boyo.
Triple top doesn't bode well either & presumably Iraq pruduction cuts will also include Kurdistan, and reflected / shared amongst all Kurdy producers.
Regular payments in this environment also has to be an issue as well.
I've sold out completely this morning.
We'll see if that was a wise or foolish decision.
Best wishes to all whatever you decide.
Jack
There's a gap from 130 to 137 which occurred when the market plunged
https://invst.ly/qftlh
In my view G will not close that gap until the market - the Oil sector specifically - closes the same gap that features in sp's across the group.
G does not logically warrant an sp much above 130 unless/until one is able to anticipate a full recovery to OP above $45, resumption of normal payments and no long-term issues. The market isn't likely to take that view for a while yet IMV.
That's twice they've run us up to 130p and back, could be a while before we have another go....
Since last Thursday's LSE close, Chevron (US Market open today) seems to be settling about 2% down and otherwise tracking OP. Two flavours of Bent shown (NY Crude and LCO Futures). G and the others have naturally not moved so all on the 0% line:
https://invst.ly/qfiqu
What has AIM got to do with this board?
Cuts from Q1 ave production?
From Reuters on Friday, I understood that 15% was dependent on US & Canada:
Russia and OPEC said they wanted other producers including the United States and Canada to cut a further 5%.
I’m reading that The cuts that will be announced from current production levels (not October 2018) are expected to be more than the 15 million bpd?
No one benefits from crazy low oil prices. As the lockdowns start to lift, OP will shift upwards swiftly, particularly if the supply remains at reduced level. I can’t see G going down to 80p, but if it does, it’ll present a good buying opportunity. That’s my view anyway.
Also, while I respect the technical charts (normally), not sure they work as well in AIM stocks. Ultimately they’re a self fulfilling prophecy, and since most retail investors haven’t got a clue about technical analysis, then that prophecy may or may not be be fulfilled.
Let’s hope OPEC++ sort themselves out and do everybody a favour
Yes Ocelot. The price of oil and related shares has recently, more than ever, been influenced by words and policies rather than the physical reality of supply, demand and the practicalities of storing oil until demand resumes. The worst may be over in terms of OP, although there are pundits who say otherwise, and G's sp may well remain above 80p, as the charts suggest, but, as you and I seem to agree, there is a very long way to go before OP is likely to reach $50 again.
At least, Trump, Putin and MBS are all talking together and seeking to act rationally.
For a while there, after the break-up of the OPEC+ meeting of early March, Russia and Saudi Arabia seemed to have gone "crazy" (to use Trump's word), which, in turn, made investment in oil and oil stocks a pretty crazy proposition.
Some context for next Tuesday:
On Thursday the five-day moving average for G v OP reached 3.6x which, ordinarily during the last twelve months, would have been viewed as an achievement. Since then OPEC+ has achieved little in terms of reassuring markets or, indeed, of doing anything to prop-up OP, which has consequently weakened - to what extent we’ll discover before markets next open.
On this Discussion Board, 1msn has meanwhile had the temerity to suggest that G might revisit the 80’s and got mocked for his/her trouble. Now, here’s the recent daily chart for G with Brent rebased (green): https://invst.ly/qevxi
Let’s just say that, unless something firmly positive happens regarding OP, there seems little chance of G progressing upwards from Thursday’s doji closing price of 124. Downwards there is the recently converted resistance turned support at 116 which offers some comfort. We also know that there has been Director, Bilgin and rumoured fund buying from the low 80s upward, which might cushion any rapid fall-back.
A 15 minute chart shows there are recently tested levels of support at 82, 90 and 98
https://invst.ly/qew0f
Forgot to add chart showing why I mentioned low 90s -
https://invst.ly/qdu45
Which is the next floor down if G does not get off here, at 116.
Having hopped back onto the 'down' escalator today, will G drop back through 116? It's a potential buy-back point for traders who maybe took profits yesterday and should now provide some support:
https://invst.ly/qdu18
A return to the low 90's hardly seems likely - unless KSA & Russia talks go TU.
Jack: I think G's recent performance has little to do with the G:Brent ratio (which has got rather stretched) and is more about anticipation of an OP boost to $40+ . That, in itself, seems to be a potential bubble with minimal global demand and storage capacity brim-full. Spot prices and near futures currently appear to be influenced by market sentiment rather than the reality of physical supply. Odd.