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BH is still running the show isnt he?
I understand you point of view. We will see what happen. We will probably never know but it would be very interesting to know why BH had to go.
It us not possible to read anything in the appointment if the new CFO, except that it is convenient and kind if steadies the ship. No CEO and no CFO might have been a bit too much.
tartine; fair point that.
That said the costs of any projects aren't all met at once/upfront, so agree use the current elevated cash flows rather than bonds to develop/diversify. I'd be happy with the current excellent yield maintained if they did that, alas, i don't think they have the ambition and/or skillset to do so; they do seem happy to churn the asset, which is no bad thing, but in the absence of 'progress', i'd prefer that excess cash progressed to shareholders.
What's not to like ... well , that there is no progress made elsewhere.
I did not pay much attention to the extra return to shareholders because I don't think it is a terribly good idea for the company. If any of the 2 main projects come good (Sarta/QD and Somaliland ... not to mention an hypothetical PCS revival at BB), we will need cash. If they return too much to the shareholders (bearing in mind it is very nice as it is), then they will have to raise money, no?
When you run a company, cash is king ... especially if you run it in an exotic country like Iraq.
But I see your point.
tartine; they key words in that RNS are "PRIOR" to the invasion and associated increase.....and, "this figure (quarter of a billion) is expected to increase SIGNIFICANTLY"
so disregarding such uplifts, effectively income will equal mkt cap in 3 years with no progress.....whats not to like?
tartine; spot on your post.......the one thing i think is missed here, i haven't seen anyone comment on is the mention of income at various oil prices in the RNS, and the quite specific flagging of exceptional income in the current year, and that any over their base projections WILL be returned to investors.
"Prior to the invasion of Ukraine and the associated increase in the oil price, we were well positioned for our free cash flow to materially increase from $86 million in 2021 to around a quarter of a billion dollars this year. At the prevailing oil price, and given that there seems no quick resolution to the appalling events unfolding, this figure is expected to increase significantly."
"The forecast extent of our cash generation, from an existing position of financial strength, provides the potential to deliver significant growth and further returns to shareholders."
"Genel expects free cash flow of over $250 million in 2022, pre dividend payments, at a Brent oil price of $90/bbl
An increase or decrease in Brent of $10/bbl impacts annual cash flow by c.$50 million"
"Should the current oil price strength persist, Genel will consider incremental returns of cash to shareholders in addition to our commitment to a material and progressive dividend"
i do agree with your new/diversified production comment; they seem either indifferent or incapable to such; that said, at current SP just churning the asset will reward all holders.
I mean a new PSC is unlikely fir me but as you said this is a pure guess.
I was quite happy that we decided to go to arbitration. We spent 100's of millions just preparing the field, studies etc ... not to mention the initial acquisition cost. It had to stop.
For some reason they did not want us to develop it (I think it would have been a big ask anyway) and to some extent U don't think we were big enough to do it.
My genuine concern is the lack of New oriduction asset for a long long time. What has been found so far at Sarta/QD is negligeable and we have heard for too "transformational, etc ...".
I will believe it when I see it.
If we keep growing the cash at that rate, then in 3 or 4 years time, the company will still be worth £1.70 per share, just on cash. That is my reasoning for saying the downside is limited.
But as you know, a lot of things can happen.
Thanks. Guess that’s as close to a crystal ball as I’m going to get.
Part of a new PSC on favourable terms to drop the arbitration perhaps.
Think you’re right that absence of Russian players will force a KRG re-think on strategy.
Unfortunately think we’ll w the last to know. Watch for sudden big buys as an indicator I suppose.
Well, it is still risky but I believe this is about fair value (just based on seeing Genel in the past). The dividend looks fairly safe as most of the shareholders voted for it.
Without knowing the reasons why BH was booted out (and I think it must be some major disagreement).
I don't think there is a big downside risk.
I have 2 holdings, one smallish one of 24k shares and a much larger one.
I will top up the small one and use the div on the big one fir something else.
Time will tell. I now am not so sure about Sarta and QD???
Somaliland is the one that could be interesting.
What will happen in the BB/Miran arbitration case will probably be major. Also remember that we can get involved in the new project if we decide to do so.
In the past I strongly believed that the Russians would develop this field ... it looks unlikely now.
Could the PSC be re-established under a new team???? No idea. It is all very opaque.
Good luck. Not an easy decision.
I knew dividend was 12c but having just sorted out recent dividends in SIPP And ISA to decide what to buy next, the Genel divvy is massive compared to others in the pot.
£1000 on a £20k holding as a half yearly - only DEC betters that in my portfolio but that's quarterly so doesn't hit you in the face quite as much.
But.......still reluctant to top up here, even more so with BoD shuffle going on with little or no explanation. Crystal Ball anyone?
Wouldnt be surprised if the potential board oustings are down to that gas the KRG. Miran had a lot of it and the pipeline was going to Turkey but its not happening anymore in this climate of great demand, that could be a reason potentially
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GENEL-ENERGY-PLC-9445424/company/
?
Did you find a link between Rothschild and Davy? I cant seem to find any
Yes I think Poly made a wise decision not to pay it out at present, survival is key.
Bit concerned by all the board changes potentially, thought Bill was doing ok, though under his watch the shares havent performed well at all really if you consider days of old
LoveLosses
Poly postponed their dividend and decided not to pay it out in May but to hold the cash in their account for payment in August (as it stands). They give 2 weeks notice before the AGM so it wasn't a shock to a lot of holders and it wasn't cancelled but postponed.
Considering the pressure companies with assets in Russia were put under, keeping cash in the company was in my view a better bet than paying out a massive dividend.
I'm taking a position here on Monday. It won't be much (low on funds) but there's value here as long as the KRG behave themselves a bit better this year.
All the best
If I remember correctly, Rothschild owns 15 %. Half in his own name and some through Davy.
Probably because it hasnt actually been paid out yet. Polymetal u-turned their divi at the last minute though unsure if that was before/after any AGM
Sorry, approve.
Hi everyone, can anyone explain the final dividend which was approved at the Agm. As I'm aware we are already about to receive the final dividend of 12 cents next week, so how can they aproce the final dividend at the meeting today?