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Turkey has its own problems with oil supply Tartine.
The ship Iran seized was bound for there & they have supply issues from Russia to content with now as well.
So they might actually be quite keen to get crude flowing again.
My mistake earlier got my dates mixed up thought today was Tuesday & its not ! Both the APIKUR meeting & the Genel update are both on Wednesday !
GLA
LOTM
It only means that there is no agreement. Turkey is probably also preventing the reopening as it owes quite a lot to Irak for the breaching the contracts (1 billion or so, I seem to remember). I doubt very much Turkey is willing to pay Irak and so the pipeline remains closed. IOC are just passengers ... they have next to no leverage ....
Hopefully I am wrong and the update this week will be good ... somaliland maybe?
Not sure if anyone has spotted this yet ?
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/210120245
KRG meeting APIKUR &other IOC's tomorrow & then the Genel update is on Thursday !
GLA
LOTM
Theyll probably still be arguing next year
It looks like the Iranians bombing in Kurdistan has given the Iraq and Kurdistan governments a jolt they needed. It looks like deals are being made and oil can soon flow. Not long to go. This could turn out to be a transformational month for both genel and gkp. Atb to all shareholders
Good thing from your article is that it doesn't look like Irak us questioning the legality of the PSC awarded by the KRI. At some stage, it was a concern ...
That is a positive.
I agree with you Lovelosses. Contrary to the current trend here, I think it is a very risky time for Genel.1. Re: the court case, it is against KRG who is not really solvent. I am not convinced that if Genel win the case, The Irak gvt will pick up the bill. 2. The contract we had with KRG might not be necessarily be honoured by Irak, Genel has very little leverage (lucky that DNO us part of the trip). 3. Somaliland might happen one day but it is a very difficult area to operate in ... plus it is being pushed back all the time. On the plus side we have the Tawainese state on board. 4. Morrocco has always been a waste of time.
Glad we are sitting on a fairly substantial pile of cash but the reality is we have a very fragile and reduced income stream, a fairly poor relationship with the region where money is generated.
Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kurdistans-Oil-Still-Offline-Due-to-Discord-Over-Payments-to-Producers.html
i still when i remember someone disagreeing with me on here with me saying itll take ages and them saying itll be open in a month of so - yeah right
It’s going to happen any day now imminently, why would they take on such a risk if it wasn’t going to happen
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Awarded-Major-Contract-By-Iraq-For-Supergiant-Oil-And-Gas-Field.html
Agree, i think more are coming over to Genel, lots of good news to come , im looking forward to next move in Somaliland,
Eventually PI’s are understanding to dump GKP and buy GENL
There’s only so many hints you can give people
Https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraqi-Oil-Ministry-announces-near-opening-of-North-Refinery-in-Baiji
Looks like GENL is about to take off
Seems like some type of insider trading currently
To be fair both genl and GKP have bee rubbish investments with GKP down from £4.60 down to a penny and Genl floating at £10 and down to 72p. At least with GKP you could of made a huge profit on the way up to £4.60 but I don't think Genl has been higher than the float price.
Roxi,
My speculation only,
The IOCs will end up with Iraqi contracts; it's just a matter of what form.
Previously, Baghdad had no immediate motive to flow the ITP, OPEC quota, political leverage, etc.
But things have just changed overnight. The new Iraq budget is very demanding, so much so the IMF debated it; you can watch it online.
The only way to fulfil it and avoid going bankrupt was for oil to stay above $70 and the 400K BOPD to flow from Kurdistan through the ITP. This just indicates what a fine line the budget walks.
Now, for Baghdad,
a) Iran just seized a tanker taking oil from Iraq to Turkey
b) Has just struck Kurdistan with missiles (It's also alleged they may have killed a Kurdish Oil Tycoon, Peshraw Dizayee)
c) Iran has just stopped supplying essential gas to Iraq
The seizure of the tanker puts a question mark on reliable oil exports/revenue via sea, and the gas supply was readily needed. Iraq's situation has just changed overnight, and they immediately have a motive to get the ITP flowing to safeguard the budget.
This should lead to more expedient and win-win negotiations with the IOCs.
Regarding the payment, Iraq or Kurdistan will pay either from the Iraq or Kurdistan budget, depending on the form of contracts issued and the new oil and gas law - This will be historic for Iraq, and like Dana Gas pre Kurdistan's independence, Iraq will want a clean legal slate on the licences.
Interestingly, Iraq needs locally sourced gas as a priority. Dana Gas, who won their case, was also allowed to continue and develop the field under their subsidiary, Cresent. The gas field is in Kurdistan, but the development contract was Iraqi.
Genel's case also regards gas, which Iraq needs. In fact, it's one of the most significant onshore gas resources at 15 Tscf. Iraq will want the case cleared so the field can be developed. It's now a matter of security of supply for Iraq.
All imo.
Hi TSSZ,
That Bulgarian refinery sounds like it needs GKP type crude. I hope you posted the story on the GKP thread for them :)
Ready to take off I'd say, just a case of what the catalyst is ? next weeks numbers or the court case itself
GLA
LOTM
Https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/bulgaria-to-replace-russian-oil/
How will they do this without flowing oil, news very soon
Again GENL slightly up and GKP declining SP
A matter of weeks away now, should be a very interesting few weeks ahead,
how they will extract the cash from KRG on a positive outcome will be interesting, or will IRAQ as sovereign Country be liable to pay??
LOTM,
Ah, that makes sense. Many thanks for the clarification. Huge FCF yield in that case.
I think the arbitration has been kept quiet due to size and the legal council. "You can say XYZ".
To get an idea, it's good to work through the annuals from 2015. The fields proved up 15Tscf of onshore gas. Gigantic.
The similarity to the Dana gas case is marked.
Agree that Genel is a safer company than GKP.
Its cheaper on a EV per bopd bases. Has less exposure to Kurdistan. $400+ in cash and the court case (From a legal standpoint) looks promising to say the least... The amounts are massive compared to the market cap and EV. The ITP shutdown has created a huge opportunity.
GENL is much stronger and safer company, GENL SP has been stable, whereas GKP SP is declining everyday
Smart money is coming over to GENL
Hi FCFY,
If you look at the DNO announcement today they list "gross operated production" to them of 65,773 & net entitlement production of 26,057. The exact same applies to Genel only is 1/3 of the DNO numbers for Tawke.
GLA
LOTM
Hi LOTM,
That's as I understand it also, but the last RNS stated “ Genel’s entitlement share of Tawke licence production in Q4 is 13%“
So I worked off that. I think it may be something to do with full production and the situation. One to ask in the meet company presentation on the 24th.