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5% down on about £100k sold..0.05% of market cap...by algos the day before the meeting to discuss a deal..erm yeah, good one...markets way to thinly traded, shorters just running a mock
The bond tender was at £93...that is not a distressed price. Directors buying, arbitration hearing in Feb with potential to win ruling for damages in excess of mcap...the meeting this Friday could rerate this above a £1 imo as it will become clear if there is a deal to be done
Bob
Fortune favours the Brave. Good luck Pal - I hope they manage to break the stalemate soon.
Hopefully a deal is sorted soon as I'm pretty loaded up on both GKP and Genl and will top up even further when I get some more cash.
Good luck all.
Bob
Manage to top up and get two buy orders at 74.74 and 74.78 £5k each :)
Happy days at this price, cant believe how cheap these are at the moment.
Cheers,
Bob
SHAFAQ NEWS
Shafaq News / Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani discussed on Wednesday cooperation between Iraq and Turkey in the energy sector, avenues for its development, and deliberated on resuming the 19th session of the Joint Economic Committee's meetings. They also continued discussions on Iraq's oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
During the meeting with the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, Al-Sudani affirmed the government's readiness to find a solution to resume oil exports.
This solution, as stated by Iraq, should be within the framework of fair resolutions and adhere to the constitution in addressing various issues concerning neighboring countries.
What is the tawke depletion rate like, how many years production is left? I am not sure prices received for local sales can cover capex indefinitely..but it's far better than nowt. I had mistakenly thought that recovery by DNO was a quarter not a month ..thanks for that info. the Bina Biwa arbitration hearing could add a chunk to amounts owed to Genel, I was elsewhere when the cancelled that contract but it is a very odd one...feel like with the arb and fact Genel are not operator on tawke and talk of looking for assets elsewhere whether Genel are out of favour in Kurdistan with powers that be.
Hi Thunder2040,
DNO recovered $8M of there outstanding amount $300M from the forward sale of oil in October & production only started to ramp-up mid month. So they maybe on track to recover @ $12M+ for November.
Now I know its a tiny fraction of what's due to them & it would take @ 2 years at that sort of rate to recover the overdue amounts as well as the cash due for the current month, but its a reasonable start.
Genel confirmed on the conference call that they will have recovered a similar pro-rata amount of there outstanding balance of $110m as well ( @ $2.75M for October on the 75/25 ownership split) & so they will likely recover another @$4M for November.
LOTM
Looking good here this morning..not.
If they pull their finger out in negotiations and do a deal and convert the production sharing contract to profit share agreement we should be off to the races...but some very impatient sellers out there today...I also wonder if we will ever see the amounts owed for previous oil supplied
Hi Roxi,
What you've probably not noticed is the following ..........
The divergence between Genel & GKP is stark.
Virtually everyday Genel's buy volume outweigh's the sell volume significantly & the closing auction happens close to or above the offer price.
GKP on the other hand has more sales volume than buy volume & the closing auction occurs at or below the bid price.
This has been going on for the last 2 weeks really & yet somehow GKP's share price is out performing Genel's over that period now!
Something has to change soon.
Oh & there's a shortage of Genel stock around because try buying when the price is moving & they want a hefty premium even for 5,000 shares.
LOTM
Back in the buying range, great value currently, imo
A really interesting article...... well worth reading
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html
Going by that, its going to do the complete opposite & it seems Biden has been messing with something he shouldn't have been.
LOTM
No problem Autonomy1
Yes the pipeline has been close since March.
They had to get the internal politics sorted out 1st of all between Baghdad & the KRC. That has taken quite a bit of time. Baghdad had to show the KRG that it held all the trump cards, but at the same time get them onboard with the way the whole country is going to be run in future.
I think the 3 days comment was very optimistic to say the least, but at the same time it was a very public statement by those at the highest level telling those below them that they want this sorted out as a matter of urgency.
So now no-one is any doubt as to what is required.
They just need to find the right "addendums" to make it work for everyone.
You have to bear in mind that the existing Baghdad oil & gas contracts are completely different to the ones the KRG issued and as such, they have to alter the KRG ones so that they work for the APIKUR (our group) the KRG & Baghdad so that they don't disadvantage all the other IOC working in the rest of Iraq otherwise they'll open up a massive can of worms for themselves.
No good getting the KRG bit fixed to find other IOC's shutting down production or refusing to drill new wells etc until they get similar terms to APIKUR members.
Hopefully not to much longer to wait ....
LOTM
Thanks for the info
It just seems that to me that they are finding any excuse not to open it.What is it about 9 months of closure.Why couldnt the contracts have been sorted out in the summer so that when Turkey was ready to open it again everything was ready to go
Last week it was going to open in 3 days now i read that Ioc have only met with Baghdad once so it will drag on for more weeks until the contracts/debt is sorted
Hi Autonomy1,
I think your wrong about Baghdad. They have to pay the wages of all the KRG staff & that it quite a monthly sum. They also have to pay Turkey for the pipeline if there isn't a certain amount of oil flowing through it.
So by not having KR production they are forking out a lot of cash with nothing new to show for it. Get the KR oil flowing properly again & the income from it will cover most if not all of the above & probably gives them some money to distribute to other regions as well.
But your right about the contracts being a problem & this is where they need to find a solution & soon to get that oil & revenue flowing again.
LOTM
I just cant see a solution to the reopening of the pipeline,Baghdad are not not bothered if it opens or not and i cant see them paying the debt of the Krg to do so.The Krg need it open but have no money to pay the 1 billion that is owed and Ioc wont pump until they get the money owed.Baghdad want different contracts with the Ioc so its a real mess
Hi Mr.Spacetomato
I'm not someone who follows "technicals & charts"
Yes the sharp drop in crude prices recently has surprised me, but there again Biden is weak & past it. Otherwise Iran & Russia wouldn't be exporting like they are now.
Saudi's apparently need around $85 to balance there hefty budgets, so I'd expect them to cut production further, others may join in.
This of course causes a problem further down the road when crude consumption picks back up, not enough oil above ground in storage, which will then cause prices to spike yet again.
All of that of course assumes things in the Middle East don't get any worse, if they do then who knows what's going to happen.
LOTM
"Technical Analysis Daily Light Crude Oil Futures
The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment.
The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop.
The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements.
Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels"
And I see that China market dropped 2% today! Yesterday all major oilers went down big time Yesterday.
What's your take on What's happening to the markets this week? I thought OPEC restrictions and US cracking on Russian oil tankers would have prevente a drastic drop on the oil price?
Someone is buying up Genel stock big time at the moment, could well be the directors
I can't get a quote on 10,000 share at all now.
Barely able to get a quote on 5,000 ( sometimes it gives it other times refuses) & the price is 1.1p over the current offer price of 84.4p quote is 85.5xxx
And if you want to sell them volume they'll give you a premium for it.
Could be an interesting close
LOTM
Just saw this in the share news
Jefferies starts Genel Energy with 'hold' - price target 95 pence
LOTM
By the looks of it there are 4 refineries in the KRG
1. Kar refinery (Kalak or Keurgosk)
2. Bazian Refinery
3. Lanaz Refinery
4. Tawke Refinery
With a combined capacity to process in excess of 250,000 BOPD
Wouldn't it be a good idea for APIKUR to buy an interest in 1 or 2 of the refineries so that they can get income from the whole process ?
At the moment they only get mid $30 for selling there oil to the refineries, but by owning part of the refineries themselves they would get a much bigger slice of the pie than there getting right now.
LOTM
Back to wanting over the offer price for 5K again ! by near 0.5p not as bad as the 1.5p over the other day !
Its one of those shares that goes quiet then all of a sudden there is a burst of interest ........ its all about timing
I wonder if the directors are busy buying more at the moment!
LOTM
Roxi, I’ve started holding here, as this could double on news, and after update I’m feeling a more positive (still got my GKP).
Over GKP, Genel always slow to catch up, maybe later today we will see some movement ?
Why is gkp on an another planet compared to genl? They have had better rise and managed to sustain it.
More liquidity?