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I have my doubts about G's ability to operate QD coherently - tawke/pesh, sarta (until certain criteria is met) remain operated by others, namely dno/chev.
Sounds like a wise move
Took some off the table today towards the close, mainly due to the potential for QD results to disappoint but also the limited upside of QD being positive because of the amount of other outstanding unknowns. Just my take.
I still own what I consider a more reasonable quantity, which were purchased at a higher price, probably still more than I should considering the risk(s) but had to limit my exposure. Will consider adding when some of the uncertainty subsides - still think there's massive upside here, I just had too many - not sure how I feel about it yet. GLA
I think the water ingress bit was the concern Boyo:
Production from the Sarta pilot project continues to provide invaluable dynamic data from which we can plan future activities, and averaged over 7,000 bopd in H1 2021. June saw the highest average monthly production in the year to date, 8,400 bopd, following the maximisation of uptime in the month. Of this production, the Sarta-2 well produced c.6,400 bopd, and the Sarta-3 well c.2,000 bopd, with the latter having been partially plugged back to manage water ingress from the Adaiyah production stream, the origin of which is yet to be determined. With production temporarily limited to the thinner, less volumetrically significant Mus reservoir, a fall in pressure in June across both wells resulted in Genel and the operator, Chevron, reassessing the optimal way to produce these wells ahead of the addition of production from Sarta-1D, a well set to access production from the entire Adaiyah reservoir section for the first time and via a smart completion. Reservoir surveillance work at the start of the year had already proved strong communication between the Mus reservoir in Sarta-2 and the Mus reservoir in Sarta 3 over a short distance of c.3 km, together representing a portion of the container more limited than our expected extent of the Mus reservoir.
At Sarta, while pilot production has not reached the levels that we had hoped in H1, it is providing valuable information regarding the future development of the field while generating meaningful cash to support the funding of the appraisal campaign. The three well programme is a key focus this year, and we look forward to the results of the campaign, which is now underway following the spudding of Sarta-5. The wells will help give us an understanding of the potential of the field, as we work with Chevron to ascertain the optimal field development plan.
I mean I'm not much of a twitter sort of chap but neither is Genel seemingly, their contribution is not exactly pulse raising, in a good way.
Re QD - 3rd Aug 21:
Our high-impact appraisal campaign is now well underway. The Qara Dagh-2 well is currently at a depth of c.2,300 metres, targeting a portion of the 400 MMbbls of prospective resources. Results are anticipated around the end of Q3 2021.
Re Sarta - 3rd Aug 2021:
The Sarta-5 well spud in June, with results expected in late Q3/early Q4.
steady on IR machine.
It's like a tragic comedy. Hope the KRG now realise how much the gas might have been worth if they had co-operated with a plan to get it out of the ground and distributed.
No matter how good the reserves and pumping is at QD and Sarta, if Genel aren't getting paid for it in a timely, reliable way then once again we're just subsidising the development of the KRG with interest free loans and associated depressed share price.
Lots of this is not down to poor management but continued lack of communications with investors is!
Latest update on Genel IR webpage is 2021 half year results. Reasons for investing and strategy are the same old sugary ****** that has been there for years and is never updated. I recognise they can't ramp their own shares but tell us what is happening please! Or is nothing happening? Leaving it all to Malcy to promise the world between lunches ain't working for me.
Sorry to hear that Klassic, also noting the posts by RG and Invest.
After a slog elsewhere, my total portfolio has just recovered to the value it reached at the beginning of April - when it was pumped up by G at about 40-50p more than I eventually offloaded at. It was not an actual book loss but a big dent in my expectations. The bounce RG mentions could be a realistic expectation but I've been bitten by G rather too many times over the years to be enthusiastic about the prospect. I wish the charts were providing a more positive indication but the sp has been drifting down compared to OP (in green here) during September: https://invst.ly/w3-3-
The company hasn't indicated if there is any recompense due or other amelioration expected if the termination of BB & Miran licences proceed - so the market must anticipate the worst. There was a niggle with Sarta too at the H1 wasn't there? and QD isn't a dead cert. So, yes, the market is pricing-in a lot of bad luck - and RG is probably right about a bounce IF Sarta and QD go to plan. I'm hovering on buying a couple of thousand but nothing like the tens of thousands I've held at times in the past. ATB & GLA
Previously post bad news the sp seems to just drift back up provided the oil price is strong. The company fundamentals remain very strong but the risk element has risen considerably. As others have said on any good news either in discussions with KRG or drill bit at Sarta and QD the price will bounce sharply which is what I'm staying in for for now.
I remember holding gkp at 70p when genel was circa the price it is today, that was about 15ish months ago. I shared the same frustration with gkp then as i do now with genel, most notably the lack of interest and trading volume. however it didnt take long for sentiment to chang and gkp sp to shoot up. The bod over there have forced the issue with aggressive dividends and a delivery on their strategy. Our bod placed their bets on sata and qd and lets face it if they come in we will soon be keading gkp in sp again imo. However if they dont they really should go and fresh blood brought in. I have to say i am suprised with the lack of interest given qd2 and sarta are due any time in the next few weeks especially considering the value they could add.
Bunks yes I’m still here. Being a true amateur I was so dazzled by my success with GKP that I failed to cut my losses here, so I find myself marooned with 10k shares at £1.74. Definitely not lol.
Daily volume is pathetic.
The new KRG oil minister Atroshi seems determined to make a name for himself by squeezing the IOCs, and Genl is the ugly sister there.
So I’ll just hang on and wait for the gushers at Sarta and QD to make us rich. Or maybe Somaliland will become a stable progressive society where G’s investment appears well advised and profitable.
See you at the party.
oh well - we only need a circa 64% rise to hit GKP's SP of 200p - what a mess - I think I'd take 130p for mine considering the current G S show at the F factory
Yep, I did the same as you two. And I have similar reservations. my gut feeling is it will work out OK in the end but my gut has been fairly wrong with genel from the start nearly 10 years ago
Yep - things were looking good then Npusher, mistake I made was holding that tranche I purchased at 163p through Ex Divi, which was at a higher price if I remember rightly, - It didn't feel like a risk at the time but then we all know what followed, notably the KRG revised payment terms, (on Ex Div day) which hasn't materially impacted the others btw and the Gas PSC's, which were not priced in anyway imo.
As you say, here we are with o.p at an eye watering $75 and GKP 199p, I would say "where did it all go wrong" but I think we know. Whilst I say lets hope for a positive RNS, I have to admit to dreading the notification in my inbox , I've been in here for many years but I suspect I might be a seller into any short term rise, sorry Bill, to say I am despondent doesn't begin to cover it. (@Jim - Just a midweek checkin, nothing to see here lol..)
My sentiments entirely Bunks,I seem to follow your trajectory,topping up in March as I felt the share had a chance of reaching £2,even reinvested final divi and look where we are at £1.23.
Giving serious consideration to unloading some but feel markets are due a correction and if my memory is correct Genl holds up quite well in those conditions but failure of the BOD to pick up a distressed oil asset in another country during the slump is a telling indication of their complete lack of forward thinking.
Hawkey, good to hear from you old buddy. I think we've all had some personal investing crises and triumphs and have to deal with those in our own way. When it comes to advising others, or being responsible for others' investments I absolutely get what you mean. I think whilst any of us might contain our own emotions they get amplified when it comes to others.
If your heart was in the right place when you positively promoted an investment, then in my book you have nothing to feel guilty or sorry about. Be kind to yourself and remember that it's the buyer who should beware not the advisor. The rule has been around so long even the Romans had a name for it; Caveat Emptor.
But there again, they were quite brutal ;-)
"sp feels too near the top to me"
A what if this is "as good as it gets" moment from boyo there, let's hope for some positive news soon and not a taq taq revised cpr type rns. GLA
Hi Bridgedogg - I was referring to the RSA that Genel has with the KRG, which ends on 31st July 2022 and which, according to my records, generated $8.8m or 26% of total income ($33.7m) of the last monthly payment for June's production (please check the relevant RNS to verify for yourself). I believe $8.8 was the highest attained so far this year but I think the payments should average at least $8m at current levels of OP. By my reckoning, these 'override payments' together with the more recent receivables from last year, accounted for $13.4m of the last payment whilst actual production accounted for $20.3m. Sarta and QD are obviously essential to replace any natural decline at the current fields and hopefully the eventual loss of RSA and receivables.
I was having a look at this along with TLW, GKP and SNG and concluded that GNL was the best option having done a skim of the various half yearly reports. Looking to do a deeper dive today but when you say we only have '12 months to run' what do you mean? Also looks to me that positive results on QD and Sarta are not yet priced in? Any thoughts would be welcome.
The short answer is ‘no’, bunks. The 10p cycle doesn’t appeal especially when I perceive the risk to be relatively high. G used to cycle through 30p or more with a fairly reasonable long-term target of 230+ given the prospect of ‘transformational’ (their word) potential at BB & Miran.
However, with BB & Miran in dispute, overrides that have less than 12 months to run and no clarity on what QD and Sarta will ultimately deliver, today’s sp feels too near the top to me.
Boyo - are you not considering trading this 123p to 132p (ish) range? Seems fairly predictable...
I mean Jim obviously, sorry, I'll get my coat.
Phil - I wasn't swearing at you below buddy, think of something that rhymes with blocker starts with a C but has a perceived expletive as the first 4 letters, this amazing site can't seem to get the basics right but will block words within words if deemed sensitive.
Having ongoing trouble cracking the early 130's I see, going take something very special to get through imo, and no, Hawkey (NSS) showing up with his cross dressing blue chip frock and high heals in place of the usual hunter boots and smoking jacket didn't do it... the ensuing back slapping was embarrassing, could be anyone taking the ****.
Phil - what were you saying about the market not liking my posts? 2x up days and 3x down days prior to this post ****er.
Hey Klassic, good to hear from you - always a pleasure, dad dancing was very nice, even by your standards.
Of course I'd have preferred to look in and see a weekly rise, at least she had a go at 132p ..... maybe next week eh, o.p / RNS permitting. GLA
I agree with the others. It’s good to hear from you. No need to apologise. We’re all responsible for our own decisions. The first 3 months of last year was very depressing for IOCs, particularly those dependent on the perfidious KRG. Hopefully we’ve all recovered. But remember, whilst history often repeats itself, the results are never the same.