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Here no evil see no evil 3 blind monkeys springs to mind.
F... me
Don,
Since 9.40a.m., the number of GENI sells today shown on LSE has outnumbered the number of GENI buys.
It was then 13 buys, 14 sells, & 2 unknowns.
The initial buying was enough to cause a rise, and the falling since then has coincided with the small selling.
I think that would be enough to cause the fall, especially in these markets.
But of course any share can potentially have delayed trades showing at the end of the day.
If there's large delayed trades at the end of the day, they can match each other, i.e. a large delayed sale, and a large delayed buy.
So I'm not saying that there won't be delayed trades showing at the end of today, just that the retail selling looked enough to me to cause the fall.
8th Feb 2022 7:00 am RNS Positive results for Lipid inCode in NHS study
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/positive-results-for-lipid-incode-in-nhs-study-cw5qtv1wyp1hpj6.html
The company well is on course, and is cash-rich after raising £17M. in its IPO last summer.
The problem is obviously the markets, not the company.
I can understand why people would want to increase their cash % of their investment accounts at the moment, but I would think GENI would be one of the last choices to sell.
It's clearly very undervalued, with no cash or business concerns, and little exposure to challenges like supply chains difficulties and inflation.
And higher interest rates will give it a greater return on its cash.
It's sad that poor market sentiment is currently weighing on it, but things in investment can change very quickly.
Additional positive FDA news could be a real stimulus, and the final results should be soon, after which the directors will be able to buy.
In addition, a takeover at this depressed price is a real possibility.
Iam down 40% on this getting very painful to watch the flight from tech and pharma.
Will be a delayed trade will show end of the day.
Sells dont outnumber buys for this kind of fall .
The largest trade shown today is for £4,353.
It looks to me like small retail sales, not a large seller, in line with weak markets at the moment.
And our big seller strikes again.Going nowhere till overhang cleared.
what I like about Geni is the fact that they gave a seemingly modest valuation at IPO and raised only £17 million which was to see them through the next 18-24 months i.e. Breakthrough, De Novo application and operation in the USA. This should enable a release of Cardio in July-August 2022 (possibly slightly later). They have allowed £11.5 million as funds towards Eversanna Health performing the rollout on a 7 year contract. This contract is primarily based on a commission base but as it moves forward goes to a cost share base where Eversanna picks up 25-50% of the operational costs. This means that we do not have the extraordinary high costs of setting up office and recruiting a highly technical sales force and Eversanna have skin in the game. It will be the equivalent of Geni training 100-150 sales people but on the positive Eversanna already have the appropriate commercial doors open. As time passes and Cardio in code gets established they can introduce our other products that operate on the same SITAB cloud based system and so increase sales with diversification. At some point they then have the opportunity to take Big Pharma Opportunities to stratify patients based on targets SNP's, genes to deliver PCSK9 inhibitor and silencer therapies.
As our products roll out I am sure that Big Pharmasutical Companies will sit up a take notice of our with position with interest.
The company will be offering a whole in lab service and what they term a 'Pack' service. The 'Pack' service can be offered to institutions that have gene analytics capacity already and just want to download the results obtained onto SITAB which then calculates patient risk. At the investor Meet I asked the question that if more 'Pack' sales where requested would this affect our revenues from the sales. The reply stated that was not the case as the margins made from 'Pack' sales was roughly equivalent to those made from a full Lab service and in certain circumstances can be more. There is another reason for offering the 'Pack' service in that when applying for FDA approval they very often look at which part of the proposed offering from the applying company can be done in house i.e. by existing American Companies. This seems to fulfil that hurdle during the application process.
The final question will be the next raise (when and how much)? Well I don't think they know exactly yet and have to remain flexible in that approach but it sounds like we expect it in early to mid 2023 and my gut feeling like those of Hedgehog100 will that it happen on both American and London markets at which time we can only hope for an expected re-rate rather than suffering from dilution as interest and liquidity should hopefully be increasing incrementally.
My personal feeling is that I am invested in a very well run Company and have all the expectation of success and at current SP represents me with a great top up opportunity. GLA and DYOR Swissy.
Thanks Swissydog - that's very helpful.
So within a few years GENI's profits could be greater than it's current market cap. ...nice!
@Hedgehog100, with ref to your last post outlining margins I would note that there was a reference to in during the investor presentation. It was suggested that Europe (mainland) is the most cost competitive market where margins are approx 50%. In the UK Lipidincode for example achieves approx 60% margin. In the USA which has the most elastic pricing structure we are looking at 60-70% and even 75% margins on our products once available to the market. It was also suggested that revenues within 5 years should be in the region of $100M. I don't know if this information helps draw up the fine picture that you were building in your last post. The presentation is available on line if anybody wants to check.
Diversified Posts: 1,914 Price: 40.75 Strong Buy
Stifel broker note 175p TP 10 Sep '21
"'@Stifel initiate coverage for @GenIncode with a BUY rating - "With US launch planned for 2022 and potential for sales to reach $225m by 2028E, we see significant upside to the shares." Target price 175p #GENI"
Diversified,
I'd be interested to know what profit could be earned from that US$225M. of potential GENI revenues in 2028.
Health sector margins can be extremely high when there is strong IP and barriers to entry like GENI's.
Bioventix (BVXP) for example has pre-tax profit margins of 74%:
18th Oct 2021 7:00 am PRN Results for the year ended 30 June 2021
"... Highlights:
* Revenue up 6% to £10.93 million (2020: £10.31 million)
* Profit before tax down 1% to £8.12 million (2020: £8.23 million) ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BVXP/results-for-the-year-ended-30-june-2021-9w94oo7e0ioauzj.html
And at its current sp. of 3,095p, BVXP has a market cap. of £161.23M., i.e. 14.75 times full year revenues.
Applying that ratio to GENI'S potential 2028 sales of US$225M. would give a market cap. of US$3,318M.: i.e. about £2.5 billion at current exchange rates.
Compared to GENI's current market cap. of £27.31 million at 28.5p.
Hi Hedgehog100 you have been very busy commenting of late and I much appreciate your views. I have had the opinion that the SP will fly if they do end up listing in USA in time. There was suggestions in the Directors presentation that this was a possibility and if things go to plan we should be operating successfully in the USA by then which will prove very tempting to new money investors at that point. GENI was always a long term hold for me and I think that this strategy could pay handsomely for early investors. It has been a little disappointing that the share price has dropped since IPO as the fundamentals of the business and management have very much kept a steady course but we have been going through strange times with Covid etc. I'm still very excited at our future prospects and by Autumn (if not before) I think we will be in a very positive position. DYOR and GLA.
RENX dual-listed in the US in the summer of 2020, floating at the equivalent of over 4 times its AIM IPO price only 20 months before.
This could be the 'template' for GENI.
Which could equate to GENI dual-listing in the US early next year, at about 200p/share equivalent.
21st Jul 2020 5:30 pm RNS Closing of Global Offering and resulting TVR
"Renalytix AI plc (LSE: RENX) (NASDAQ: RNLX) ("RenalytixAI" or the "Company"), an artificial intelligence-enabled in vitro diagnostics company, focused on optimizing clinical management of kidney disease to drive improved patient outcomes and lower healthcare costs, today announces the closing of its global offering of an aggregate of 11,000,000 new ordinary shares, including 5,485,000 American Depositary Shares ("ADSs") at a price of US$13.50 per ADS and 30,000 ordinary shares at a price of £5.37 per ordinary share (at an exchange rate of GBP:USD 1:1.2563), for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$74.3 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by RenalytixAI. Each ADS offered represents two ordinary shares of the Company. The ADSs were offered in a registered public offering in the United States and the Company's ordinary shares were offered in a concurrent private placement in Europe and other countries outside of the United States (together, the "Global Offering"). In addition, RenalytixAI has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 822,750 ADSs at the initial offering price per ADS less underwriting discounts and commissions.
The ADSs began trading on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol "RNLX" on 17 July 2020. RenalytixAI's ordinary shares are admitted to trading on the AIM market of London Stock Exchange plc ("AIM") under the symbol "RENX". Application has been made for the new ordinary shares issued in Global Offering to be admitted to trading on AIM and it is expected that admission will become effective and dealings in the new ordinary shares will commence at 8:00 a.m. (BST) on 22 July 2020.
J.P. Morgan and Stifel acted as joint global coordinators and joint book-running managers for the Global Offering. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RENX/closing-of-global-offering-and-resulting-tvr-sarvprqmbsyvfan.html
The comparison of GENI to RENX before it ten-bagged is compelling.
Note that GENI and RENX even have the same NOMAD (nominated advisor), i.e. Stifel.
"Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker
Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited
4th Floor, 150 Cheapside
London
EC2V 6ET"
https://investors.genincode.com/investors/advisers
"Nominated Advisor
Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited
150 Cheapside
London
EC2V 6ET"
https://investors.renalytix.com/ir-resources/advisers
Well, GENI has finished the day up 1.75p (5.5%), at 33.75p.
The s.p. only rose today, in four steps, with no fallbacks.
And this is actually GENI's best one day rise since August, as is befitting today's good news.
Just two or three more days like this and we could be back in the upper 30s, which would be a good base from which to build further.
6th Nov 2018 7:00 am RNS RENX Admission to AIM and First Day of Dealings
"Renalytix AI plc (AIM: RENX), a developer of artificial intelligence ("AI") enabled clinical diagnostic solutions for kidney disease, announces the admission of its ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") to trading on AIM ("Admission"). Dealings in the Ordinary Shares will commence today under the ticker "RENX" and ISIN GB00BYWL4Y04.
The Company's Admission Document is available from www.renalytixai.com/investors
Transaction highlights
· £22.25 million raised through a placing, US subscription and restricted offer to shareholders of EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc ("EKF") (the "Fundraising") at a price £1.21 per Ordinary Share (the "Issue Price")
· 53,816,134 Ordinary Shares in issue at Admission ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RENX/result-of-placing-total-voting-rights-j4q2kio1sm0ds62.html
I don't think we will be complaining if GENI performs like RENX.
RENX floated about three years ago at 121p, with a similar IPO fundraising and market cap. to GENI's.
By last summer it had ten-bagged.
And though it's fallen back since then, it's still 560p, market cap. £405M.
Big buy went through lets see at end of day if our seller matches the buys.
And for information purposes iam in renx who have been waiting 2 yrs for fda approval so dont hold yer breath.
I didnt say they were finished .But any buying is matched by big sell .Thats why the price is way down here!
Recent Share Trades for Genincode (GENI)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
10-Jan-22 08:53:36 32.85 10,000 Buy* 32.00 33.00 3,285 O
10-Jan-22 08:14:50 32.98 4,902 Buy* 32.00 33.00 1,617 O
10-Jan-22 08:00:25 32.00 17 Sell* 32.00 33.00 5.44 O
Don,
The only trades so far today of any substance are buys, and the s.p. is up.
Considering that GENI's last up day was three months ago, that is not to be sniffed at!
How do you know that the big seller isn't finished?
Today's news is very positive, and could mark a turning point for the share.
Shame big seller sitting waiting to pull the trigger and nobody is biting ahhh.
It is reasonable to suggest that with approx 50% of the market cap represented by cash leaving corporate core assets valued at just over £16m, with a turnover of a few million and decent news flow soon to kick in.
This is purely a case of poor liquidity through a lack of volume/interest. Let the news flow tell the story. It’s been a slow start and it’s now time for management to deliver on its admission document.
That is just standard retail investor paranoia.
When a share price goes up, people tend to think 'someone knows something good we don't'.
And when a share price goes down, people tend to think 'someone knows something bad we don't'.
But in the large majority of cases, the buying/selling isn't benefiting from anything that isn't in the public domain.
There's been a GENI overhang since the IPO in July, but the seller(s) should have started from below 3%, because there's been no holdings RNSes, so I should think that should be nearly exhausted, if indeed they aren't already.
What's more telling is that people have been buying them, because people sell for many reasons, but only tend to buy because they think that something is a good investment.
And someone must have been buying £100sK. over the last couple of days, perhaps as a worked buy that is yet to show.
Big sellers though often have very poor market timing, and there have been many examples over the last couple of years of big dumping immediately before share price takes off.
So much so in fact that I would actually regard big selling in a situation like this as a real positive, because when the selling dries up, the only thing depressing the share price has ended.
Been here since inception
Somebody knows something we dont?
GENI may well be my top share pick for 2022.
Diversified, you said in September that you expect 145p by the end of the tax year.
Well I think that 200p by the end of 2022 is possible with the right news, which would be about a six-bagger from the current s.p. of 33.5p.
Look like Christmas has come early this year!