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I almost forgot about the US reimbursement, I had been thinking the payment for the initial shipment from March that BC are currently selling was all we would receive, but seems we will also receive at least a percentage of the reimbursements too which are significant.
Also mentioned in the article... "The reimbursement per test in the US is a magnitude higher than it is in India."
From the New York 360DX July 13th article... about the HCV test.
"Budd said sales have resumed in Africa and Asia Pacific, which he described as the primary markets for the test. "We see more activity picking up, and I think we can feel positive that it's turned around," he said. "
“ Dave, I do not think BC has sold anything because no FDA approval.”
Beckman will have signed the deal knowing very well that the tests might not receive FDA approval before the tests reach their expiry date, they know the industry inside out. This will likely be why they got such a great deal, they will have factored both scenarios in (with EUA/without EUA) to ensure they can sell enough to make a substantial profit.
They will be making deals I have no doubt what so ever. They have plenty of independent reports and studies to show to customers how good the tests are. As I’ve said before, Beckman know what they are doing!! :) …they spent a long time assessing the test and doing due diligence.
One thing they will not have done is gambled money and marketing resources on the chance that the tests received EUA approval before they expire. Most likely scenario in my mind is they planned for this, knowing that if by chance EUA suddenly landed then great it will make selling easier, though it won’t have been a requirement.
Alot of talk on placing which alot don't believe will happen also alot of talk on a takeover which is a possibility also sales and partner news and all other news and there's lots could drop any day, week, month GLA only worry for me is a placing anything is possible have to wait and see
@gloria 100%, and I believe it will come back! I hope everyone makes a few quid I think it’s just how long everyone is willing to wait!
I am going to keep averaging down , may be a terrible idea but when funds allow I’ll have a go!
"@gloria I invested 100k , yes it’s worth half now but I didn’t invest 50k did I ?"
MR Deerhunter, Indeed, your initial investment was 100k. You now have 50k invested and hope it increases, at the very least to cover your current paper loss. But as we all know, if Mr Budd is spending more time negotiating with ii's wrt to a share dilution (probably 20-30p placing at a guess) rather than focussing on sales to raise the bank balance, then your current 50k investment my drop further. But then that's not why you are here, we are still holders because we believe in the products and that there is a demand for such products and GDR will turn a good profit. And why not? Covid is not going anywhere any time soon.
Rookie- even if you rule out America, the BC deal covers the EU too for which we already have approval. However it's highly unlikely every lab in the USA will be waiting on FDA proved tests. Beckman's iwn antigen test is with the FDA, yet they have been selling it for a while. I'm sure they know how much they could sell.without FDA approval, before advising Genedrive to go.down this route.
"Or do you always hold a stock to the bitter end come what may?"
MrPunter, I've kept a stock to the "bitter end". I took a very nice profit on the stock and it fell. But then I bought back in at what I thought was a fair price. Unfortunately , the price kept falling. My buy back in investment of 5k is now worth less than £100. I've still not sold it as the appearance of that stock in my portfolio serves as a £4900 lesson!
However, GDR is a covid play and covid is simmering everywhere . My real concern is Mr Budd. Yet stubbornly, I refuse to believe Mr Budd and more importantly, GDRs products, are as bad as the sales figures suggest. Which is why I've not sold at a loss... yet!
Jeez thepunter1, if you'd read his previous post you'd see the context, he believes it will be higher therefore does not wish to sell at a loss now. We know you're just here to prove some sort of point because you told us so, but at least read the posts your trolling.
"Anyway I refuse to sell at a loss"
That is a very expensive mentality to hold.
GDR aside for one moment; Have you never been undewater with a stock and considered cutting your losses after re-evaluating? Or do you always hold a stock to the bitter end come what may?
Rookie, not making a prediction here but to note that that doesn't tell the whole story - they are able to sell to CLIA certified labs in US (as well as of course sell in other regions with CE-mark or approval they're marketing i.e. EU)
Dave, I do not think BC has sold anything because no FDA approval.
@gloria I invested 100k , yes it’s worth half now but I didn’t invest 50k did I ?
Anyway I refuse to sell at a loss so I’ll wait for £1 min and then re evaluate
GLA
Rookie i wasn't trying to jusify the lack of sales, if you read my history you'll see i have said numerous times he has no excuse for lack of sales in other markets, and have been critical of Budd.
My post was more a response to someone who suggested the sales from BC would be 0. Now im not saying they have sold tens of millions, but they certainly will not be zero, and if they are BC need too look at themselves in the mirror
" I am expecting to make a good return on my 100k even if my average is 105p , even if it’s not until next year!"
It annoys me when I read investors speaking about their investment in terms of money, instead of number of shares.
Deerhunter, You don't have a 100k investment at the moment, it's now a 50k investment, unfortunately. I hope you regain your losses and even make profit but don't pretend that you still have a 100k investment. It's like saying someone has a 1mil investment at an average of 1000p, it's a completely false statement.
I'm sitting on a similar loss for this year having wiped out my gains by jumping in at 120p, my investment in GDR is still the same number of shares though, they are just worth alot less.
Dave the lack of sales by BC is out of their control! Because FDA has not approved!
But DB WILL use this as an excuse but what about all the places we have approval for??? UK, EU, SA, INDIA, THAILAND !!!!!!!
Iv come to the conclusion that I may need to hold this now for another 6 months , it’s been to 140+ may 2020 , sept 2020 and feb 2021.
There are only 3 real options :
1. Jace is right and between 3 major collaborations we have sold ZERO
2. We have sold some products that will keep the company going until bigger sales arrive in the coming months as sales cycles start and hearing loss / poc is released (sept/Oct?) , or Budd is waiting for those that could be imminent before releasing news
3. The wheels are in motion for the buy out.
Either way at 50p your either stuck and waiting for another peak to get out , confident you’ll make good money or bought in at 60p or less and gonna make a killing!
I have no idea which way it’s going to go but I am expecting to make a good return on my 100k even if my average is 105p , even if it’s not until next year!
GLA
Yes there are bound to be sales, Danaher's Life Science business brought in $10B last year and h2 2021 showed revenue up 40%. BC and Sysmex were key contributors to that, so it seems they know what they're doing.
Even if there is one single deal to supply 1 lab running 1 machine 24/7 for 12 months, it's about $10m of revenue I think if my rough of the top of my head maths is about right. Without EUA, sales may not seem significant to a multi-billion $ company but for a £30m company they will be massive! I need to check my maths tonight, that seems too much.
£1 is still low Swerves, though i'm sure many of us will accept it and move on, but doesn't make all this suffering worth it for the last year and a bit.
I disagree about there being no sales. There are bound to be some sales, albeit not as significant with FDA EUA. If "$6bn BC" haven't sold anything for 6 months, then they need to rethink their existence as a life services firm.
J there not….He’d be risking jail if he did,Dudd is an arrogant joke but he ain’t a criminal….
Jh27- how can iis protect from a lowball offer, when the majority of the holders here are PIs. Anyway they don't hold any special powers, and are normal investors like us, very difficult to overturn a management decision like that. Normally it's done in a way so that the offer is the best option for all stake holders. For example they could in theory drive the company to a position where it needs immediate cash, and it's either death spiral financing or a takover. I know which i would vote for without question. Have a look what managment did at Carpetright as an example, where managment teamed up with the largest shareholder and wiped out all institutional and private investors.
I would class anything below £2 at this stage a low ball offer, given how close we are to AIHL launch.
I don't think they're neccessarily hiding sales I just think they are a company that develops great products to be sold in the market, sales are expected. They aren't going to put out an RNS announcement whenever they sell something, it's not a revelation to them. Although for some posters who believe we've sold zero and never will sell anything it would be.
I am surprised though that they didn't RNS some of the stuff in that article, certainly the HCV sales in particular. It might be that they're planning a full update and just waiting for a few key things to happen first so they can be included, like a second BC order, WHO, AIHL, POC... etc. There are a lot of major items expected soon so it would make sense to wait and include these.
Why would they hide sales?
*rtPCR