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Unless a test has 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity the one thing you can guarantee is that a test will give false negatives so all tests in effect give false negatives where the level of virus (below the LOD) or the presence of interfering substances cause the test to provide a negative result.
What you can’t say is that the NcYT test performs any better or worse without seeing those sensitivity and specificity data from a larger data set across different clinical settings.
Some tests provided to the NHS produce false negatives.
Some tests provided to the NHS are produced by NCYT.
Basic logic says that from these statements you cannot conclude with certainty that some NCYT tests gave false negatives.
You have well and truly embarrassed yourself here by continually trying to dig yourself out of this one.
And that won’t be your final retort but I’ll let you have it. I am surprised a man of your calibre has succumbed to the ad hominem fallacy repeatedly.
Some here are timewasters, let them do their own research, best not to give them oxygen. Ive yet to hear them produce an original bit of research or to challenge a negative view. All I see from them is critique other's research or positive opinions.
Final retort, Magsy
You're getting more desperate with every fatuous rejoinder you concoct.
NCYT provide tests to the NHS.
It's not rocket science.
As an aside, I don't believe you've ever been lucky and certainly not in your failed attempts at disproving facts. You're a time waster and I've devoted far too much of my time in your direction already.
Again, more insults. Weak.
As I said earlier, I am not questioning the 30%, I am questioning how you concluded that some of those were NCYT. You’ve assumed which doesn’t make it fact unfortunately.
It’s telling how your original points on the comparison make no reference to NCYTs market cap when they were at the same position as we are now. Then once you realised you made a boo boo, you decided to shoe horn that in. Disingenuous to say the least.
I would just take this one on the chin buddy. It happens to the best of us. You will learn from this and make sure that you are more accurate in future.
I know, I know, I’m not that that bright. Guess I just got lucky this time ;)
I don't need any 'help', Magsy, you do.
Had you bothered to regularly listen to the daily Coronavirus statements and also the analysis of the track and trace objectives, you wouldn't have claimed falsely that the 30% false negatives emerging from the current tests don't exist.
Anyway, enough.
Debating with an idiot is fruitless, if for no other reason than you don't have the cranial capacity to recognise your own idiocy.
The share price appreciation will happen despite your inane contributions, upsetting as that may be for you.
Insulting me won’t help you.
You were wrong on the profit margin and you talked about partnerships but omitted that NCYT have partnerships with GSK and AZ.
You are now adding another point to your comparison justification and finally it’s something worth discussing. As NCYT was going through these events a couple of months ago, I wonder how much the gains were amplified by hitting the market earlier twinned with more powerful sentiment around covid stocks at the time? You’re right, if we looked at the NCYT market cap when they were on our position then we are behind. I just think that the market is looking for more now, namely sales, before the big gains come.
The 30% false negatives isn’t true, I can’t research into something that doesn’t exist unfortunately.
I can understand you trying to save face and I do sympathise but next time if you do your research more thoroughly then you won’t find yourself in this position
Magsy
You just continue confirming that you're not the brightest. It's a gift that keeps on giving.
The market cap at NCYT rose to £152 Million in February with a tiny sales volume of 40,000 tests and a CE Mark.
In simple terms, which you need, that's double the current market cap of GDR, who also have a CE Mark.
That's prior to a £90 Million sales value and their margin would have been zero on the 40,000, so it's the antipodes of a 'premature comparison'.
As far as the 30% false positives, you need, yet again, to research more. I'm not doing it for you, mainly because of your wish to behave repeatedly like a buffoon.
The embarrassment is yours but I think you know that already and why you're trying so desperately ,but failing miserably, to disprove the positive distinctions and advantages that GDR have.
So when it was suggested that the comparison with NCYT is a bit premature due to their £90m of sales and you rubbished it on the basis that NCYT have made almost zero profit, you really had no idea that was the case?
Bit embarrassing. May I suggest that it’s you who does their research next time?
Anything more on the claim about false negatives? I’ll assume not based on the above.
Flyingmachine
It was on the BBC News in April.
Accepted, the circumstance may have improved for them since then but the description at the time was 'barely breaking even, if anything making a loss', so my previous reference to the margin position there was measured.
Neither is it to criticise other test producers, it's to provide one of the distinctions at GDR, which is from the outset, they have a £ Multi Billion partner, GE/Cytiva, as do AVCT, with a global presence in 40 countries and with over 7,000 staff, and they have the production capacity and margin. At NCYT, that wasn't the case but it didn't hold back their rapid market valuation increase.
Yet another demonstration of GDR's gross undervaluation currently.
Thought i was on the NCYT BB having read the last few messages. Can we not keep the debate to GDR, obviously you guys are invested in Novacyt too. Not too fussed about their profit margin tbh.
Great post Rollininit. Thanks for taking the time to put that together.
I want to be fair to the NCYT team though, I had thought that the profit margin for their test is now around 50-60% and that's what many of the folks over there have been using recently in their own calculations. Not sure where the near zero profit for NCYT came from, but let's not be unkind to them. They have been a great model for where the GDR Mcap can get to.
I have asked for verification of these 2 things on the NCYT board. I am sure Rolling is correct and hasn’t misinterpreted anything but worth double checking.
How did NCYT end up with £9 million circa cash then at end of April if margins were so thin? I understand both companies have indicated similar gross margins.
Could be a spike to £4 tomorrow. Just have to wait and see. GLA
@rollinginit...... superb post, hopefully DB will use it all tmrw in his press call....
Imo
I can’t find it, just an interview with a business director stating that they aren’t discussing product margins right now. Sure you don’t have a link handy? To be clear are you assuming in your comparison that NCYT have made almost zero gross profit from their £90m in sales?
Regarding the false negative rate, what’s the source that states that any of them are NCYT tests? Presumably you aren’t saying some tests gave false negatives and some tests have been provided by NCYT therefore some NCYT tests gave false negatives?
I am genuinely not trying to catch you out or anything. I see the comparison with NCYT as quite a strong guide for GDR and just backing up a couple of your points would add a lot of weight to what you are saying.
https://www.rapidmicrobiology.com/news/who-release-covid-19-test-scores-of-100
Not according to this perhaps you should stick to facts!
So we have the proactive interview out in the morn.... Possible sky news slot @ 9.30-10.30 ....then Zak's interview later in the day..... 3 opportunities for DB to bang the GDR drum for the world to hear... £3 tomorrow would be justified IMHO.... GLA
Solid factual post rollinginit....I love it...... Let's hope the doubters read it and absorb it.
Doggy
That's generous but thanks for the sentiment.
The NCYT CEO openly admitted it in an interview a while back that they were just breaking even on their tests and that they were struggling to source parts.
You can check back by listening to all of their interviews. Research.
The NCYT profit margins are a surprise to me, I am sure that I read that the gross profit was 60-80%, granted that was a while ago.
Got a link regarding the NCYT profit margin being nearly zero?
Rolling in it
Probably the greatest post of all time
Why a number of alleged 'holders' need further 'research' by others to 'convince' them and to demonstrate why GDR is hugely undervalued and why the GDR share price will rise dramatically, is beyond me.
Here are just a few facts to demonstrate why.
GDR is currently valued at £ 78 Million.
On the 17th of February, NCYT announced their CE Mark for their test along with a very small number of orders, (40,000), and their market cap responded by rising to £152 Million, double that of the current GDR market cap.
GDR also now have the CE Mark for their test allowing immediate commercial sales and it is now also known, in hindsight, that the NCYT test profit margins were near to zero and their production capacity was compromised, whereas the GDR margins are healthy as is their production capacity in advance..
Current tests, some of which will have been supplied by NCYT, have been shown to have a false negative rate of around 30%, rendering high risk for continuing infection growth, whereas the GDR test has a greater accuracy.
Cytiva, GDR's partner, was responsible for the majority of FDA approvals in the sector during 2019.
The FDA have an MOU with the Bill Gates Foundation and the Bill Gates Foundation fund WHO with tens of $ Billions. Wheels within wheels.
Separately, AVCT are valued at around £400 Million with no test ready yet for commercial use and therefore no sales yet.
Yes, they have other facets to their portfolio, but so do GDR.
It's not an 'it's us or them' relating to stocks that produce tests, it's an 'us AND them' that's needed. The global demand for tests is so vast that there's room for many providers, far more than exist at present.
These, in my opinion, are just a few reasons why GDR is hugely undervalued and why the share price in GDR will rise dramatically toward a fairer valuation.