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Another clearly written explanation from Blox. Thank you.
Hi bigAl67: Thanks for your reply although I must admit that I'm more puzzled than ever having read it. My point is completely unrelated to positive or negative posts (or indeed, the number of such posts that anyone has made,) so I'm not sure why you would mention that, or name particular individuals? I just can't understand why (if you understand the dilution factor as you have stated,) that you would say that you and your wife intend to 'take advantage of the discounted, QUANTITY-RESTRICTED, shares in the OO' when that would further dilute and devalue your current shares when you could equally well buy, AN UNRESTRICTED number, at virtually the same price, on the open market and avoid creating further dilution/devaluation of your current holding? Maybe it's me that's missing something? Or maybe I'm just not explaining myself properly? I note that you said you are not trying to urge investors to buy into the OO but you did write, " I sincerely hope the 25p Open Offer is taken up." That to me certainly sounds like you are advocating that it would be A GOOD THING? If not then surely you would have written " I sincerely hope nobody takes up the 25p Open Offer." So the thing I don't get is - when the open market price is virtually the same as the Open Offer price and you could buy as many shares as your heart desires - why would you think the Open Offer was worth taking up when it will result in dilution and devaluation and the quantity you are allowed to buy would be restricted? Can you explain why you would go down that route when you could buy 100 for every 7 you hold on the open market, at the same price, and without the resultant dilution? I'm not saying anyone should or should not take up the OO as it is each individual's decision but I am querying why anyone WOULD take it up when it would dilute and devalue his/her holding?
Bigal has more chance getting laid than GDR hitting £75m profit lol. Like i said the fishes have eaten the last of his brains
We can still turn 75 million profit , with our only sale to note being to BC lol….
*the new 40p will be 34p in terms of value.
This is what I'm thinking at the moment in terms of share price, considering that not much has changed on the news front except the placing itself and sentiment...
Before the placing there were 63m shares in issue and a fairly solid 40p share price giving a £25m mcap.
After the placing there will be 87m shares in issue, so with the share price at 25p this gives a £21.75m mcap + extra £5.5 cash. So based on that the shareprice should reasonably be 31p (giving mcap of 21.75m + 5.5m = £27.25m)
After both placing and open offer there will be 105m shares in issue, which at the current 25p shareprice gives a mcap of £26m + an extra £10m cash. So you can reasonably say our mcap then should be 36m which equates to a 34p shareprice.
So assuming the fundraise goes through successfully then my very crude calculations mean the new 40p will be 36p in terms of value. Then from there, with 105m shares in issue a shareprice of 60p will give genedrive a mcap of £63m (which it previously would have had at £1 when 63m shares were in issue). Of course this doesn't take into consideration psychology, but gives an idea where the shareprice might go on positive AIHL or POC news. 50p is a nice round number and a good target for starters... which would give an mcap of about £50m (which we would have reached at 80p before the dilution and did so fairly recently).
Considering the launch of both products should be in the next 2-6 weeks I'm feeling pretty confident we'll get back up to 50p at least, particularly if there are orders.
Well said BigAl67,
Good luck next week and onwards.
Bigal you said we was going to make 75 million profit just from pcr, you are the king of delusion
Your strategy is just post BS and when called out on it say you are going fishing
Hi Blox,
Thank you for your post, and no offence taken.
Firstly, I am not trying to urge any GDR Investor to buy into the Open Offer.
Since the Placing/Open Offer was announced, I have posted just 9 Posts, and this Post is my 10th Post. Of these 10 posts, and by and large my posts have been in response to Posters on this subject. I have not started the thread of any of my posts, and have simply replied with my strategy and my reasons why, just as I am replying to you now.
Mcmanus on the other hand has posted in excess of 100 Posts over this same period.
Mcmanus slaughters, anyone who dares to Post anything positive about GDR, using terrible name calling, and has even told Posters to stop posting there, as he puts it - 'deluded posts' .
I understand the dilution you mention, and believe we are where we are, and I believe the OO will go through.
Therefore I intend to watch our SP over the next few days, with the view of taking up my/our full OO allowance, and average down.
I wish every GDR Shareholder the very best, in what ever decision they make.
This is whats going to happen.
A rumour of huge sales will circulate at wich point the iis will sell them db will release a rns stating the rumour to be nonsense (bit like the india one!!)
The company will be worth £10m more after placing… as they will have £10m in the bank. So of course your share will drop in value for the interim. Question is will £10m additional funds generate future value. Have the wait and see.
Jimi: the only way to stop placing is to vote against it on 30th Sept meeting. If we do then the BOD will scare you of imminent collapse of the company as they have said in RNS with funds running out in 4 months.
It will not make any difference if you take the offer or not, there will be others who will request more shares than they are entitled. They will let the SP rise to few pence above 25p to attract the buyers. They will dump the excess shares as soon as they get it, even with 5% profit. This is usually the reason why the SP drops below placing price in following days.
Even if the share price was 50p there wouldn’t be any point in taking up the open offer, except to help fund the company. I’ve only worked this out roughly in my head but if we’re able to buy 2 for every 7 we own, and if the total new shares issued will be 18m then the dilution to our existing 7 shares will cancel out any gains from the 2 @ 25p …it would only be worthwhile I think if the share price gets up much higher - like way over 50p.
My thinking is they are cheeky buggers. Plus they ought to be able to make some good revenue over the next 12months so don’t actually need it. Without the open offer funds they might be encouraged to try a bit harder to sell their tests. So I’ve decided I’m not taking the offer up… unless in the days before the deadline the share price is over 50.
Blox- i've explained this to Bigal already, but the fishes have eaten his brain. Any PI buying the OO ate shafting themselves, and giving more miney to Budd to pay bonuses hence it needs to be ignored. But it is clear Bigal and LTH are in some way affiliated with the placing/company, as tgey have been pushing the OO and placing hard the last few days.
My hope is that Budd has a carrot up his sleeve and had used this to dangle in front of the institutional investors. Mid October or November, they get there money back…and some…and the pi’s get above water.
I’m in so deep the jelly fish are stinging my arse!
Just to share my understanding, I believe CE marking is a self-certification.
If they say they’re aiming for October I cannot see it coming sooner.
I’m buying on the open market.
Best of luck everyone - each to there own!
They'll need to have something good up their sleeve for sure. I think the Indian approval RNS saw the highest volume day at 11milion+ traded. They'll need to keep the flow going to clear 24m, especially when the traders et al jump in. That said they managed to keep it going for weeks when GHIF were exiting and SP held up extremely well. Will be an interesting watch, hope its blatant and lots get arrested.
It’s the company being ‘kind’ letting us in on the same deal as the II’s. The problem is that there’s no real benefit in taking part when you can buy on the open market at virtually the same price. It’s actually worse for Pi’s overall taking the OO.
This is a crucial understanding for PI’s to have.
Of course if the price rises between now and the deadline to take up the offer, then taking up the OO would be understandable.
Each to their own though.
I think you are spot on blox, I can't see how increasing the number of shares in issue will benefit anyone as we can buy them at virtually the same price without impacting the mcap.
Not sure were the SP will go, but agree with the current sentiment about Budd
I WOULD’T TRUST HIM TO RUN A BATH
The oo is actually nonsense. The share price will be below 25p soon anyway. Why would you even think about it?
The only positive is that budd must have some rns queued to make his city friends some profit from 25p
My view is the bloke is the bloke is a real incompetent. Rarely seen. How can you not sell covid stuff via beckman in a pandemic lol?
Completely useless c u nt
@BigAl67 - I don't want to cause offence but I really do think you are missing the point when you urge people to join in the OO and buy at the same '40% off bargain price of 25p' that was given to the ii's. Under the OO we are only "allowed" to buy 2 'cut-price, bargain-basement 25p shares' for every 7 we held on 14th Sep and in doing so - more NEW shares would be created, resulting in a greater number of shares as a whole and thus (whatever the mcap, up or down,) the value of each share would be less as a result of that dilution. However - with the price as it is at present - (virtually the same as the placing price anyway,) we can buy as many as we want/can afford (not just 2 for every 7 already held!!!) and WITHOUT bringing new OO shares into play so therefore avoiding any dilution and associated decrease in worth of each of the shares that we currently hold! We couldn't really avoid the introduction of the extra shares and resultant dilution in the case of ii's as the co. needs the funding but why would you want to further dilute by taking part in a 'restricted purchase number pi OO' when you can buy ANY (unrestricted) NUMBER on the open market, FOR VIRTUALLY THE SAME PRICE and WITHOUT DILUTION AND CORRESPONDING DEVALUATION. It would be madness! Obviously, the situation would be entirely different if the open market price was a fair bit higher than the OO price - but it's not! I hope I've explained that properly because it just doesn't make any sense at all (at least not to me,) to even consider the OO.
Sally be careful with ODX, it's been just as bad GDR in terms of delivery, though they have a business outside of Covid. There are some cheap shares out there at the minute, 4D pharma being one i higligted the other. Directors heavily invested and currently 40% below last placing price where directors invested $2m between them.
There will always be Cardano, Shiba Inu and Doge to try, if you are brave