Wentworth CEO sees both capital and dividend growth opportunities in Tanzania's Mnazi gas field Watch Now
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
@Magsy18 There's an awful lot of negativity wrapped up in that post and much of its dependent on maybes.
You are more than entitled to think that way if you wish.
For me, the idea that lower middle income countries are somehow organised enough to "put in processes to mitigate against any shortcomings of existing products," or that such measures actually exist, is for me simply not possible.
What measures can a government put in place to counter tests that aren't sensitive enough, other than test the person again? It either works or does not. Its either a good product or it isn't.
Having a foot in the door does not guarantee anyone a full belly. Taking India as the example, despite their current uncontrolled outbreak and their cases essentially being as high as they have ever been, they are keen to reduce the costs of their testing bill. Reason. They cannot afford it.
So if new products come along that are cheaper and remove the number of operations, or prevent doubling up tests, or can be stored and transported far easier, or are more sensitive, then the idea that governments won't purchase them because they have a deal in place, is for me absurd.
NCYT can increase its product 10 fold and it still wouldn't be able to satisfy the demand that exists worldwide, which is the main point here. GDR don't need to push other players out to succeed, they just need time to demonstrate the value proposition of their test.
Once established, the test will speak for itself and then they will have the chance to dislodge other test suppliers, who don't necessarily need to be AIM listed. There a great many very poor tests still being used out there in the world and GDR doesn't need to dislodge very many, before Cytiva would be putting on more shifts.
I appreciate your cautiousness and respect your opinion but I don't agree.
Come on GDR let the Gene out of the bottle, how many tests have we sold and how many lives have we saved.
I now have the highest number of shares that I have ever held in GDR. GLA.
GDR m/cap circa £55million
NCYT m/cap circa £200million
Shows the upside to be had here with PCR kit sales alone.
We also have the POC test to throw into the mix later this year and the HCV test (already WHO approved)
Remember we are the first in the world pre mixed freeze dried test kit with 100% sensitivity.
If you have followed NCYT closely a lot of the posters on their board have concerns about the contracts that they have in place (including the one with PHE) NOT being renewed unless they can demonstrate increased sensitivity performance going forward.
That is sensible theory and one would imagine that before NCYT can secure some contract renewals that they too will have to have any new test that they market scrutinized in much the same way as anybody else.
The remain a good benchmark for where the M/cap for GDR should be in a few months if not sooner.
Cheer up, you never know, it might just happen. We’re violently agreeing and only time will tell.
Not being first to market almost certainly has an impact on the future success of the GDR product.
To displace existing products, the fact that our test has advantages over some of the others out there might not be enough. Maybe the advantages of our product aren't enough to disrupt. Maybe governments have already put in processes to mitigate against any shortcomings of existing products.
These other companies also have their foot in the door. They will have had time to increase production and had time to evolve their product like NCYT. I would suggest that governments looking for tests would use those in actual use elsewhere.
Look at India, they have approved almost 60 PCR tests, it's not being 1st to market, we aren't even 50th.
Given the above BBN, how can it be that none of that impacts the potential of the GDR product in any way?
Hi BBN, agreed, I used the word headwind as it needs to be considered, but I don’t see it as a longer term issue, the ease of use will see incumbents being replaced over time. It won’t happen overnight though as I don’t imagine existing stocks of tests and existing contracts for orders being torn up. The initial feedback regarding easy of use DB spoke of was very promising.
Regarding global opportunity, I’m a huge fan of the visualisations here:
There are still a large number of countries that are highlighted in colour showing they’re struggling with testing to a level that helps to control the outbreak.
Also the WHO have partnered with the Global Health fund to cover the cost of testing for the poorest nations which is why I believe once the WHO approval comes in this will unlock many doors.
As WHO has already approved our HCV kit, we have an established relationship.
@PL75 I appreciate the compliment, thank you.
To be clear. Not being first to market has nothing to do with the future success of the GDR product. Two reasons.
1. Nearly all low to middle income countries are failing to test at a level that is required to reduce their covid cases and instigate track and trace, if they indeed have the infrastructure and will power to do so.
2. The second phase of covid testing will be about quality, cost effectiveness and ease of use, which in turn will reduce costs.
The GDR test is more than strong enough to carve out new opportunities where testing is lacking and displace other tests, where the process is more laborious and so the additional costs of use, are higher.
Just because the GDR test costs 8-10 pounds, does not mean that is the true total cost to the user.
Nigeria. Population = 205m
First Covid case reported = 21st March.
Current cases per day = c. 600
Generally speaking Nigeria has moved from finding c. 300 cases per day between early May and early June to the above c. 600 cases, between 9th June and today.
That graph is not consistent with a country that is managing to control its outbreak, it is consistent with a country that has increased it testing slightly and so is finding more cases. However, the idea that Covid somehow behaves itself better in African countries such as NIgeria, is simply implausible.
The number of cases being found in nations such as this is completely dependent on the level of testing being conducted. At 205m population, Nigerai has a problem at just 600 new cases confirmed a day. So if more testing capacity is on offer that can be implemented for less cost, they are highly likely going to purchase it.
Another shining example of this is India at 1.38BN population and yet is still miraculously only finding c. 18,000 new cases, some 3 months after their outbreak started, when they are only testing c. 140,000 per day. It is wholly inadequate and it is being driven by both the cost of testing and capacity.
It is a pattern repeating itself across the world. The nations with the biggest recorded Covid cases per day rigth now (US aside), are not capturing anywhere near as many cases as the European nations did during their largest case numbers. So the reality is far removed from what is reported, which means the opportunity for the likes of GDR and AVCT, even NCYT, is substantial to say the least.
David has already stated that the CE marking process gives us the framework to achieve both FDA and WHO approvals and we know those are due to land shortly.
When it does they will release a RNS for each.
Hi BBN, pleased to see your level head on here today. I enjoy your logical thought process and follow your posts on #gdr. It’s just about patience, which is severely lacking. Every Covid board is currently full of panicking and paranoia due to not receiving updates every day. That’s unfortunately what happens on no news days.
GDR have an excellent product, but we’re not first to market and that’s the only headwind. PPs SWOT thread was a good one and I thought it summed it up well. Happy to hold through this volatility. Gl
Agreed. Hence my point about not posting here anymore.
My view. Achieve FDA and WHO EUA plus India and GDR will have more than enough to be going at for the foreseeable future because it will give them most of Africa as well.
I would like to see some of the Arab countries pushed for because they struggling to control their outbreaks and are wealthy nations. However, I will be delighted when the above 3 with Europe, are all in place.
I understand the fundamentals, The success of any company is the end it's bottom line! It helps to have a successful product(s)... but it does matter a bit if it isn't able to market it well and turn it into sales.
I am a holder here, so I am routing for it's success. It's good to have a gold standard product(s) unless it shows in terms of its's order book. It does not count for much... fingers cross, lets hope we see some good news soon!
No it won't impact the success of the company but that is true of everything written on this board.
In the context of this board it does matter because genuine discussion exploring all avenues of possibility both positive and negative is drowned out.
@Magsy18 Sorry to be blunt but does it really matter? Will it have any affect on the longevity of this company or its success? The important thing is that the applications have been made and the company is moving forward with their products and in particular, front end, the Covid PCR test.
Investing is about establishing as many facts as possible and making percentage calls on what we have learnt, good or bad, for ourselves. On AIM that mantra is magnified several times over.
It is always good to hear other points of view and perhaps learn something. It is foolish to think everyone is pulling in the same direction. GDR and AVCT are both being played right now, not because they don't have bright futures but because there is an opportunity to do so, helped along by telegraphed future news items.
Once those windows close, so will sentiment change and the fundamentals, such as the fact these approvals are in play and that sales are expected, will come to the fore once more. That's why it will be better for longer term investors when the volatility dies down and more sustained progress can witnessed.
You're right and ironically, most of the drivel comes from those who are most positive about the share.
For example, 4 weeks ago, myself and some others were using the NCYT timeline as a guide to to when FDA approval would come in i.e. the end of June. At the time that was 4 weeks away so we were dismissed as derampers as people didn't like the thought of having to wait at least 4 weeks.
This morning you use NCYT timelines in exactly the same way we did and the same people don't say a word because now they view it as a positive as it effectively means the approval is imminent.
It is the easiest job in the world to label someone on these BBs. It is one of the main reasons why I simply don't bother posting here anymore. many hours of research can be shared but dismissed by such drivel and then quickly pushed out of sight.
On 22nd April, GDR signed their agreement with Cytiva and stated "we are working very aggressively and plan to have product available in the next five weeks."
On 1st May, GDR announced their pilot manufacturing milestone and stated "the overall project plan currently remains on track and the company is targeting CE marking in approximately 3 weeks' time."
GDR achieved CE Mark approval on 22nd May. That was exactly 3 weeks later and 4 weeks and 1 day of their indicated 5 week deadline.
They then conducted a presentation with Q&A direct from retail shareholders, on 12th June and asserted there that the first sales update would be early July.
What he also clearly stated was that "we are only a fortnight in (post CE Mark), so we're not in a position of reporting sales orders. I think most people would appreciate that."
"The process of purchasing a diagnostic is different than consumer products"
"End users have to assure themselves that it works and they have to assure themselves that it is safe. They don't do that just because you say it is." So it needs to be put through its paces but personally I think"
"Its amazing what we have been able to deliver in such a short period of time. I don't see any reason why this shouldn't translate into a significant business for us."
"I had already communicated that we expected orders in June. So as a minimum we will do an update early July."
Obviously if anything price sensitive happens before that, we would update the market as well."
What on earth more did they need to do in that time period, to satisfy the "good communication" and to prove that they can deliver what they have told the market they can.
A high performance PCR test with competitive advantage to its peers, delivered in just 9 weeks, is extraordinarily good work and was the hardest part of all this process, including sales.
Agree Safy, if it wasn't for the Cytiva link, I'd have been out of here a long time ago. Lack of news is disturbing. What's taking so long with FDA approval? POC test? Sales? etc
Totally agree, said it loads of times.
The rampers will say David is his own man and will communicate when he’s ready. They’ll even make up stuff to back their agenda. Everybody else knows GDR communication is borderline terrible.
The problem is how to judge the silence. That’s where the nervousness stems from.
I don't think this is a demonstration of my impatience but just an observation that all other COVID stocks keep their investors in the loop of what is happening. I agree GDR are not renowned for their communications; but at this key time when I'm sure they would rather see their MCAP at way more than current, and there is mass interest by Investors in these types of stocks, it would be advisable for them to match their peers! I absolutely trust that they will be working flat out in the background to get all of the approvals they seek bottomed out and getting their manufacturing capacity to a suitable level; but would be great if they let us know that!
As I have already suggested GDR has the absolute platinum test available and I have no doubt of this, but without news, communications, social media the SP will keep spiralling down and interest levels will drop.
I hold a very significant holding in this share and totally believe in what they are doing; but like others would love to be a little more informed.
@andymlloyd with all due respect, you are demonstrating an impatience for results.
I could name several very successful investments in stocks that infuriated investors with their lack of PR or periodic updates.
In the end, it comes down to what the business achieves on the ground, not how often shareholders are updated., which requires patience. I genuinely mean no offence by this, all investors are entitled to feel how they feel about their investments, I am merely offering my opinion to your response.
GDR are not renowned for regular updates but then they never had a such an active test before with so many regulatory and country roll outs required. I would therefore trust that they would update more regularly but as I say, it will be the actual work on the ground that matter most.
As I said this would take something gargantuan to make this jump to £2.
I don't think this will happen, I suspect a small amount of initial sales will jump the price to circa £1.50+, and then it will slowly spiral back down to current levels again until some further sales news is revealed.
This is the way with COVID stocks, no news price spirals down...news out...rockets. That is why so many other COVID stocks are maintaining their value as they are keeping they investors informed.
I'm have absolutely no doubt that GDR has the best test out there, but without sales it is kind of meaningless; and meanwhile other companies are proactively advertising by RNS, social-media etc.
I do believe the slow decline in SP is not the product it is the lack of communications from the company as to what the £8M placing has been spent on....and was it worth it?!
@andymlloyd may I ask, why does something gigantuan need to take place, in order for £2 to be achieved? Why does £2 need to be achieved in a day or a week?
The initial phase of extreme price rises in covid related stocks, has led to a belief that these stocks should always act in that manner. The reality shouldn't be that way. GDR is very much capable of returning to that sort of valuation but it would be far healthier if it did, on far stronger foundations over a longer period of time. The volatility is no good for anyone and puts off investors seeking stable investments who would deliver support to the SP.
It may not be as exciting for some but in my opinion, the most successful investing is generally achieved in that manner. Whatever the short term trends or manipulations of this stock, its performance in its markets are what will ring most true in the end and that will take time to achieve. What's key is that the Covid testing market isn't going away for some time, so the opportunity is a really good one for GDR, as a front end revenue generator, ahead of their AIHL test roll out.
In my opinion.
Going to need something gargantuan to make this jump 100% to £2.