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@Greg I've always found that the absolute grade itself is useful information but only economically meaningful when you know the depth it is found at and the length of continuity of that grade.
Theorising aside we do know that open pitable grades over say 1 g/t and down to 100m are likely to be economic whereas underground grades need to be higher to be economic because of the higher mining costs. If you have higher grades over longer intercepts at shallower depths then your profitability is likely to be higher.
What we do know is that we already have a working processing plant that is already being significantly upgraded in terms of scale, process flowsheet and %recovery efficiencies that massively lower the economic grade, intercept and depth thresholds ... broadly the only real variable is now the overall AISC meaning that the only real risk is that GCAT pursue more marginal resources to up the volumes of ore required to fill the processing capacity. In other words spend more to dig out and produce more at a higher AISC but produce the same or lower free cashflow.
ATB APR
Aprogerson 300Koz is the minimum I'm expecting.
Over 80 drill holes of data will give a clear picture on the 1.6mile strike.
8gt is high-grade and they're putting through 2.4gt saying that's high-grade, the devil is in the detail the profitability must be high to lower the high-grade threshold to 2.4gt.
Good Luck All holders and to those who have sold recently it's probably best not to look here when the MRE is announced
@Swampmonster
Like you Swampmonster I try not to be distracted by either the positive or negative POG predictions, but as ever it would be foolish to tune them out completely. So articles like :
https://ibisingold.com/article/detail/goldman-sachs-predicts-up-to-38-rise-in-gold-price/en
And this one from last year,
https://ibisingold.com/article/detail/next-year-gold-may-reach-usd-2200-per-ounce-banks-bought-record-amounts/en
Both are good indicators of a broadly positive sentiment that shows IMO, at worst, that POG is relatively stable when I'm examining the investment potential of Caracal. For me obviously an increasing gold price would be great, but the fundamentals at Caracal stand up to scrutiny across a decent range of movement in the POG.
Like the second article also predicted though, is that unfortunately, inflation should be a positive factor for us, and that is before a much anticipated recession spreading across the World, becomes a reality.
@Greg So current Kilmapesa 'share' of 671koz JORC (Red Ray & Kili) is 531koz
> 200koz upgrade = 38% resources
> 300koz = upgrade = 56% resources
Let's hope we are both right AND we get a large increase in confidence levels of existing resources from Inferred > Indicated > Measured categories !
ATB APR
I normally don't trust a word they say. But now that they're in my echo chamber.....
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-06-29/Goldman-Sachs-raises-its-gold-price-forecast.html
300Koz minimum uplift inbound IMO
Reminder - extract from RNS dated June 6th:
"With the drilling on Kilimapesa Hill almost complete we look forward to delivering an updated resource at the end of June and are excited to be moving to the higher grade regional targets to support continued resource expansion".
Tomorrow is the end of June.
ATB
Getting excited now the updated mineral resource estimate is very close.
Do we know who is producing the updated report ?
@aprogerson,
I'm sure you are correct that the remodelled Caracal processing can and will rely upon lower grades to meet their targeted output, if only by 'sweetening' the lower grades with sufficient higher grade ore to reach the desired blended grade to feed the specific processing plant, ( as suggested in the prospectus).
Hopefully though the June presentation with it's projected 924,000t/a requirement, to feed all the processing plants, they must already be fairly certain that sufficient higher grade ore is present, and further that most of the lower grade ore is easily mineable, or the natural by-product of mining the higher grades. Because as you have already said, aprogerson, the challenge is upping the ROM total to feed those hungry plants and having enough available to demonstrate an acceptable LOM..
ATB & GLA
Just checking back to GCAT LSE launch prospectus in Aug-21 https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Prospectus-Final-19.07.21.pdf
The prospectus confirms the resource split between Kilimapesa and Red Ray & several things really standout for me:
> JORC model cut-off grade is 1g/t so any ore below this grade is not reflected in current resources
> Kilimapesa JORC on p31 @531koz
> Red Ray JORC on p32 @140koz
Commentary:
1) JORC remodelling cut-off grade = GCAT is using Heap Leach so grades below 1g/t may now be economic so could provide a significant resource upgrade just be remodelling existing drill datasets
2) Infill & Expansion Drilling = the historical JORC model is discontinuous so if joined up then resources could be upgraded excluded resources brought into any revised JORC ... prospectus says "The block model resulting from IRES’s work is discontinuous and its geometry is largely controlled by the availability of data (underground channel samples to the West and drill hole intercepts to the East, see Figure 13). Only about a third of the strike length delineated by artisan workings has been taken into consideration in modelling, and only a tenth is reasonably well documented (KPG underground workings area)."
@Greg you may be right as the above data from the prospectus indicates that nay revised MRE may surprise to the upside especially if the cut-off grade is dropped to (say) 0.8g/t and/or known mineralisation could be brought into the MRE via infill drilling.
ATB APR
Hope so or else the sellers have Inside info and that's why there has been the selling.
Looking forward to seeing the updated MRE and quietly confident it's going to catch all the sellers out!
300koz minimum increase
@Greg Yep. my thoughts too especially after 5 months infill & expansion drilling at Kilimapesa
ATB APR
@Itsyou and OOSM Thanks for the input.
I really think GCAT could do with posting a statement clearing up the status of their mining and exploration licences in relation to Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray prospects outside PL0189 and especially to Caldwell and the status of Bao Mining as this was contentious. Clearly if there is any ongoing legal action it can simply state that discussions and/or litigation is planned/underway and cannot comment further. If it has been resolved then say so ... at least we would know !
ATB APR
As for the disputed area(Red Ray, etc) Page 26 of Q2 presentation shows work commences as the same time as Voyager & Mentelle, which we've been told will be Sept. Watch this space...
Aprogerson I see what you did there, the strike has increased by 38% and you've increased by 38% to make 200koz.
Have you ever wondered why they keep saying high-grade and strong grades when you look at the low-grade looking drill results?
It's because the high-grade threshold is relative to the depth and thickness of the intersection.
There's a lot more gold there than most people think.
That's line is the area of a ML licence for the Caldwell mine, which expired in 2015
@Itsyou Presentation q1'22 p14 bottom left hand diagram showing ALL exploration targets inside and outside current PL0189 exploration licence AND Bao Mining licence area Pl/2018/0072 over Caldwell prospect which has been removed from latest June-22 presentation.
ATB APR
Ref: https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Caracal-presentation-Q1-2022-final-PDF.pdf
@aprogerson,
On the Kenyan Mining portal the situation is currently unchanged, from what I posted previously, see below.
'Yes the picture does not look promising, but also it is not completely hopeless as the Exploration permit PL/2018/0072 for Bao Gold hill was granted 01/08/18 until 31/07/21 covering an area of 10.4633 sq kilometre, but the Mining license application ML/2019/0072 applied for on the 23/07/2019, covering 4.7808sq kilometres, does not appear to have been granted yet (assuming that the Kenyan Mining Cadastre Portal is reasonably up to date).
In both licenses the area appears to cover Red Ray, Natingile, Alpha Ray and half of Blue Ray.
Additionally, there are four artisanal licenses, each 0.2846sq kilometres granted to Farah Awad Gulet on 25/08/2011 until 26/07/2015, shaped in a square totalling 1.1384 sq Kilometres (1124/1-9, 1125/1-9, 1126/1-9, 1127/1-9), none of which cover a prospective target. what is unclear is whether the Kilimapeasa Gold exploration license applies to this area as well'.
https://portal.miningcadastre.go.ke/Site/CustomHtml.aspx?PageID=d7f3f61d-4689-4280-a59a-b865f002dd60
As you say the company are particularly and consistently bullish on this matter, which hopefully indicates that the situation is moving to successful outcome in Caracal's favour.
ATB & GLA
APR,
What part of the Q1 presentation shows Caldwell being excluded and owned By BAO? Page number will do. Thanks
@Suggins Sadly nothing on Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd or their licence Ref: Pl/2018/0072 carved out of PL0189 back in Aug-2018 and contested by GoldPlat. The EXCLUSION of Pl/2018/0072 from GCATs exploration licence in JUn-22 presentation when previously shown in Q1'22 presentation cannot be accidental and should be explained as it is a substantive change.
Anyone with any time/resources and access to Kenyan mining licence cadastre to do some investigation into status of Bao's licence Pl/2018/0072?
ATB APR
Nice summary Aprogerson; have you any indication if Bao Mining have ever sought to exercise any of their rights ? I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere.
@Greg I am 'pencilling in' another 200koz (+38%) additional resources taking JORC from 531koz to 731koz at the operating Kilimapesa mine. GCAT have been infill and expansion drilling around their mine for at least 5 months so there should also be a shed-load of resources moved from inferred>Indicated>measured categories to demonstrate increased confidence in their resources and importantly a decent 3+ years Life of Mine (LoM) figure.
Any revised JORC will then be a stand-alone resource for Kilimapesa as we know from recent presentation (P12) says Kilimapesa Hill "Hosts over 531,600 oz of JORC Compliant Resources" which implies that Red Ray holds the balancing (671-531Koz) = 140koz resources.
Most importantly for me will be any confirmation of the future of both Red Ray (balance of current JORC =140koz) and Caldwell ceded to Bao Mining by the government from the original PL0189 licence.
From my 11-Jun-22 post referring to Q1'22 presentation ...
Contested Licence Area:
Docs also show a 6sqkm contested rectangular licence area of Caldwell as licence area granted by government in Aug-2008 to Bao Gold Hill (Kenya)Ltd Ref: Pl/2018/0072 details in GoldPlat Annual Report 2010 showing as unresolved. Ref p8 of https://cmsignition.co.za/download/files_1428/GoldplatReportandAccounts2018.pdf
"In October 2017 management were advised of an application for an exploration licence over an area in the Kilimapesa exploration licence. An objection was lodged and numerous meetings have been held with officials from the Ministry of Mining and the Licensing Authority, including the Cabinet Secretary (Minister of Mines). Despite meeting with the Cabinet Secretary, it is unclear as to the exact status of this application and the Company is taking legal advice on the best way to proceed."
Outside Granted Licence Area:
Areas outside our current exploration licence called Blue Ray, Natingile, Alpha Ray and Red Ray keep being referred to, but it is not clear the current status of this area which is especially odd as Natingile is referred to in SMR above but shown outside PL0189.
It looks like Red & Alpha Ray are OUTSIDE our PL0189 Exploration licence but the Q1'22 presentation P15 says... "This comprises the Kilimapesa Hill and the Red Ray deposits (discussions on Red Ray ongoing), both of which are located close to the Kilimapesa Gold Processing Plant"
Comments on June-22 Presentation & Licence update:
The latest Jun-22 presentation p13 shows 7 Regional Exploration targets INCLUDING Blue Ray & Caldwell (previously ceded to Bao in 2008 see above) and NO associated 6sqm licence 'out-take', but now NOT Natingile, Red Ray or Alpha Ray (as outside PL0189) which differs from Q1'22 presentation approach ... some clarity would be useful !
ATB APR
Ref: https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Caracal-Gold-PLC_Corporate-Presentation_JUNE-22-FINAL.pdf