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Afternoon all,
I agree with your calcs aprogerson, my view is that ultimately we will be aiming towards 50kozpa at Kili once all the plant expansions have been achieved, with the proposed HL commercial plant central to this. As I understand it, the leach pads are to be operated "in series", which will impact on the optimized operating parameters. The larger commercial pad would I expect be operated independently. The final outcome will depend I guess on the MRE (expected end June),as to how far we can go with this, but it certainly looks promising imo. The next step is then in Tanzania, How far can we go with this? From what RM has previously stated, he admires the THX developments in Nigeria/Senegal (targeting 80-100ozpa), this may be his target in the future, I'm sure we'll find out in due course.
7.5% drop in Carnival today. #mysterysolved
Without proof, it would be foolish to say.
I simply find it easier not to trust anyone now, especially those that close down open debate/discussion.
I used to like TG boards, but owners just boot people that don't fit their narrative.
I'm fed up with this cancel culture!!!
Anyone we would know ?
I hope RPdard’s aunt is still holding, she made a very chunky buy a while back.
Plenty of chunky sells going through, I suspect a few HNW's are moving on (well, at least one!). Bye bye
I was in a rush, I just re-read your posts Legalwolf.
HL won’t be in the next update then. Q3 update, as you say.
My 3000oz (for Q2) is based on current CIL and tailings adjusted to the stockpiled 44.8kt that is higher grade. … and 2 heap leach pads.
In other words it assumes 2 heap leach pads commissioned but no improvements to the CIL and tailings capacity.
ID78/APR - good posts. Realistically, are we looking at Q3 to see those increased production figures? Not only does the HL plant require completion, but there are EIA approvals to obtain as per below.
"Environmental Impact Assessments ('EIA') were initiated for the heap leach project, the surface exploration drilling programme and the open pit mining area. The EIA for the heap leach project has been completed and the EIA for the exploration drilling programme and open pit mining area was submitted in May and is expected to be approved in June."
I included Apro’s changes to my calc, I went in the middle assumed 50\50 split between CIL and tailings with the 80% and 52% recovery factors.
IF the 2 heap leach pads get through the 22.7kt stockpiled ore and IF the mined 44.8kt not yet processed (at higher grade) is processed then my calculations of the combined gold produced is 3000oz for the next quarter.
For investor confidence the next mining update, which is a good 3 months away presumably, really does need to reflect the progress we are being told is being made at the mine…
@ID78 Just Google Heap Leach cycle as loads of info and diagrams and flowsheets out tehir and really depends on how they run it to get optimal recoveries. I understood that their stated 'test' was a 14-day cycle that gave them 53.5% recovery if they irrigate it for longer the % recovery goes up but at a relatively slower pace giving an S-curve recovery over time ... hence the pilot and the optimisation they are doing.
ATB APR
Another great post, Apro
Heap leach is c complete game changer. We now need more gold!! So the next update is very important.
We also need mining operations to intensify, but if not, as you say, heap leach for longer and achieve a better recovery.
Can I ask you mention 14 days and a month. Is 1 heap leach basically a month? 14 days of leaching and the rest of the month being used for preparation, loading, unloading the pad? So that every month 5000 tonnes is processed? As opposed to every 14 days suggests the pad could be loaded twice in a month (hope I make sense)!
ID78 Thanks and agreed on HL facility which has gone from:
> 10ktpm or 2 HL pads @RNS 3-Feb-22 Acceleration at Kilimapesa
> 20ktpm or 4 HL pads @RNS 11-Apr-22 HL pad update
> 120ktpm or 4x5kt +1x100kt pads @Stockbox interview 28-Apr-22
We know that pilot plant is currently achieving 53.5% recoveries but this is 'only' after 14 days whereas their plan was a 60-Day cycle and from research I've read a 60% to 70% recovery is more typical for Heap Leach so GCAT are obviously still tweaking their processes for optimal results.
The absolute gamechanger is the Stockbox 'announcement' of a 100ktpm 'commercial' HL pad which if the grade remains at 1.75g/t and 53.5% recovery implies ....
> 120ktpm HL = 120kt x1.75g/t x53.5%/31.1 = 3,600oz/month @53.5% recovery (14 day cycle)
GCAT may opt for a 60-day cycle to boosts %recovery implying 60ktpm or probably 2koz/month throughput as will be on a continuous cycle of load, spray, cook, clear and repeat at higher %recovery.
Summary: If GCAT progress to add 100kt HL facility and planned 60-day leach cycle then 2koz/month HL only production looks very feasible as long as they can scale up the mine plan to provide 60kt/month ROM ore at notional stated 1.75g/t grade. Add a doubling of BOTH CIL plant and Tailings plant to 1ktpm throughput each and you can quickly see GCAT going through 24koz/annum and approaching 50koz/annum quite quickly assuming they can dig enough ore to feed it as ...
Kilimapesa Target Processing (assuming can produce enough ore to feed it) as stated via various RNs looks like:
> CIL plant @1ktpd (2x ball mills) = 30kt ore
> Tailings plant @1ktpd (upgraded) = 30kt ore
> HL plant (100kt-120kt capacity but 60- day cycle) @50/60ktpm ... depending if keep 5kt pilot plants
So IMHO Mine needs to produce 110kt to 120kt/month from underground and new open pit at Kilimapesa versus 44.8kt ore (RNS 20-May-22) produced in Q1 .... a bit more mine development needed hence additional stope and recent mine/reef drives!
My best guess is they'll plump for 60-day HL cycle as they will be limited by mine production until they can scale it up to keep the planned HL 120kt capacity 'monster' fed!
ATB APR
I feel my post is confusing, point is the stockpiled ore for the HL pads could add 667oz next quarter (averaging 220 oz a month)- but the heap leach pads can contribute much, much more.
I can’t get a quote to buy…
I’d err with Apro’s figures. I did not understand the relevance of the tailings plant vs CIL and this is why my numbers differ.
If we process the same amount next quarter AND in addition work through the 22,744 tonnes of heap leach stock pile then you can increase Apro’s numbers by another 220 oz per month. So, 862 - 920 oz per month could be achieved in the next update.
Ifs, buts and maybes but that calculation does not have the 2 heap leach pads, that I understand are commissioned, or near commissioned, working flat out. ( I think they could process much more ore )
For reference:
22744 tonnes @ 1.72g/t and 53% recovery = 20733g = 667oz
Over 3 months this is 220oz per month.
If we assume 2 x 5000 tonne pads x 53% recovery x 1.72g/t = 9116g every 14 days, which is 293oz every 14 days. So the 2 pads can contribute a lot more.
The heap leach pads really could make a huge difference in the next update (I hope!)
@DVH Yes agreed could have been better BUT gold was produced in Q1.
ID78 and myself tried to work through what this maybe and I came up with "Ops Report Q1'22 - Gold Production" thread from Sunday 22-May-22 based on RNS text of "54,121t of ore (versus 51,732 tons in Q4'21) was processed at an average grade of 1.75g/t Au, resulting in gold sales of.1,226 ounces - an increase of 17% on the previous quarter sales of 1,047 ounces in Q4 2021".
> LOW: Q1 = 1,925oz or 642oz/month average to
> HIGH: Q1 = 2,094oz or 698oz/month average
ID78 also produced a separate slightly higher estimate, but remember plant is being upgraded, optimised and Heap Leach plant/circuit being added which will significantly boost throughput and CIL/Tailings circuits as higher grade material can be processed at higher recovery efficiencies.
It's all good
ATB APR
There is very little reported selling today. Little volume. Looks to be slightly more buys than sells. The 2x1M at 0.69 are buys and the 1M at 0.68 is a sell. I can sell readily, so it seems that the dip is primarily due to the MMs (tree-shake) not sellers. Yesterday likely had a few RNS-related sells but that isn't visibly the case today.
aimof the game6 dont be an idiot like me and have an average of 1.113 haha, i ant averaging down prob should but im not piling more money in until we see what is going on here. GLA
wow what is going on here mm or ive no idea cant figure it out, im praying there no ****ty news out there, everything weve seen and read seems good better than when we started and we are going down, well im going to stick with it the news weve had and the ceo buying in at higher, never thought it would be down here stupid shares for yah haha. GLA
Why is the CEO in London ? Someone knows something and is in a hurry to sell
Poorly worded RNS last week didn't help matters imo
Market (SCAP mainly) now trying to bounce the shares. Great chance to buy here and should make money, don't be like me and be an idiot and buy right on the bell last Friday into a temporary rally, buy the dip and buy the bounce.
Certainly a little choppy out there. Three possibilities:-
1. The sellers know something we don’t.
2. They are desperate for cash.
3. They are making a poor decision they will very soon regret.
Everything I have seen makes me think 3 is the most likely.
Just waiting for the 1m seller to arrive. Should get us nicely near the 0.5’s. At this stage I think I’d get more enjoyment setting fire to my money!
This is just getting crazy.