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Strange trades this morning , mm's look to be trying to flush out some cheap shares
Good luck with that ;-)
Mmm.. to add..
initial contacts with counterparties took place in relation to a potential farm-out of PEL 0094 and PEL 0029.
Period: from 1st April as no mention in previous quarterly ending March 31st.
Here is the programme of the up coming annual Spare Bank conference this month in Oslo ......26th Feb
Some very interesting companies presenting and one not to be missed, all presentations will be shown on the website after the event as per last year
https://sb1menergyconference.com/program1
Missed out the second link... Doh!
Here is an Azinam presentation February 2019, slide 4 shows well targets, with a note "3 more in the pipe" and slide 5 shows the resource and CoS chart
http://www.azinam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Azinam_SB1EnergyConference_27FEB2019.pdf
Here is the presentation in April 2019 slide 4 shows "target 5&6 being negotiated" slide 7 shows an updated resource and CoS chart, with the addition of "prospect W" and target 5 and 6
http://www.azinam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Azinam_NamibiaOGconference_UU_APR2019.pdf
So clearly 5 and 6 have been in play since at least January when the February presentation was announced. Another point is from the same conference as the February presentation, Seapulse were presenting and mentioned they had 88km2 in Africa , I can't find the recorded presentation. But recorded the findings on a Seapulse post on linkedin, I worked out at the time Azinam had 76km2 and GBP have 11.60km2 = 87.6km2
Coincidence ???
Here is an Azinam presentation February 2019, slide 4 shows well targets, with a note "3 more in the pipe" and slide 5 shows the resource and CoS chart
http://www.azinam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Azinam_SB1EnergyConference_27FEB2019.pdf
Here is the presentation in April 2019 slide 4 shows "target 5&6 being negotiated" slide 7 shows an updated resource and CoS chart, with the addition of "prospect W" and target 5 and 6
So clearly 5 and 6 have been in play since at least January when the February presentation was announced. Another point is from the same conference as the February presentation, Seapulse were presenting and mentioned they had 88km2 in Africa , I can't find the recorded presentation. But recorded the findings on a Seapulse post on linkedin, I worked out at the time Azinam had 76km2 and GBP have 11.60km2 = 87.6km2
Coincidence ???
You will be head hunted soon M, by the likes of PGS ;--)
This site is very unreliable and not user friendly
Gemsbok is still the flagship prospect, with many follow on prospects and leads. However 94 is the most likely way into it, from an economical prospective. I see no problem if we have deep pocket partners pressing the case for WD to be drilled first, de-risking Gemsbok in 29, in order to acquire a 12 month extension
Eco's PEL30&33 are due a well each no later than March 2021, "which is extendable by one year at the discretion of the Ministry."
If we close a deal for both blocks and 29 is extended by 12 months, we will be drilling a well in 94 this year imo
This is where it gets interesting..
Welwitschia (Delta) was/is believed to be sourced from the Walvis Basin
TRP's Gamma, Alpha and Beta were/are believed to be sourced from the Namibe Basin
Page 9
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/files/TRP_AOGSPresentation_0113.pdf
Gemsbok appears a mirror image of Welwitschia (Delta) and therefore it is reasonable to assume it is sourced from the Walvis Basin.
https://www.offshore-mag.com/geosciences/article/16800671/2d-seismic-data-review-clarifies-gemsbok-prospect-offshore-namibia
Lion appears to mirror Gamma so is it sourced from the Namibe basin?
Dik Dik appears to mirror Alpha? Is this also sourced from the Namibe basin?
On page 13 of TRP's old presentation above it shows an outline of the minimum fetch area. It includes Gemsbok but not Lion or Dik Dik.
So, I agree, Welwitschia may turn out to be a main target with Gemsbok seen as a follow on prospect.? Gemsbok was GBP's darling but now we have Welwitschia. That is where it perhaps gets sticky as any potential farm in partner on 29 would need to commit to 3D and a drill. Could 29 require a licence adjustment? No idea!?
But Lion and Dik Dik perhaps gets complicated imo. They appear more suited as follow targets for TRP's Gamma, Alpha and possibly Beta prospects from the Namibe basin?
We desperately need a detailed presentation from GBP.. Ho hum
Nice one M, I like the Repsol presentation and shows the depth of information they had back in 2014. Just think what others have added to that library since
Repsol would have benefited from the new Brulpadda data for sure and would have had a result on Welwitschia 1
Clearly Welwitschia Deep (WD) (PEL94) is more advanced that Gemsbok, it has 3D coverage, well data and has new data showing how short the well was drilled, to what is now perceived to be the way ahead.
Economics says WD will have to be drilled ahead of Gemsbok (PEL29)imo. WD is said to be the same play as Gemsbok and would de-risk a massive range of targets in PEL29.
Acquiring PEL94 has been a long term goal for the Peters and looks to me to be the key to de-risking and opening up PEL29 and the massive range of targets
With the right partners and investment Maggy Shino has said recently she has had to be flexible to encourage investment. Which could see further extensions on PEL29 if certain conditions are met
As has been said before, obtaining PEL94 was a master stroke by the Peters and will also, all going to plan will see a knock on effect to TRP
Surely!!!!!
When adding our announced read across to Tullow's Cormorant drill which proved the play yet failed due to suffering migration distance issues as reported by Pancontinental and Africa Energy. Africa Energy now state this as the main risk to the remaining targets they have - Migration distance risk.
Well adding the information from The Geoscience team and NAMCOR for laterally continuous fault systems that will provide up-dip trapping I find it extremely difficult how at least PEL 94 is not hot on the radar. Combined with oil slicks on the licence plus other hydrocarbon indicators such as deep rooted chimneys and pock marks, repeating oil seeps on flanks of a structure, up dip, regional closure..
Surely..surely.. surely.. surely.. we will get snapped up in a farm out deal with one of these counterparties? Surely!
New Concept for Namibia
Historical Repsol Presentation revealing just how the puzzle has shifted.
Page 74 Shows how things have moved from earlier days and just why, like Brupadda, Welwitschia just has to be drilled again.
Look at the Red triangle. That is what they thought was the regional seal.. way above in the Early Miocene / Tertiary zone. The Repsol drill bit only reached as far as the upper Campanian before they abandoned it due to mounting costs and rig malfunctions. (Clearly Welwitschia wanted to keep her secrets until I was able to discover her) ;-)
Four green flags / 4 Source rocks? I have heard of 3 (listed below) not 4. What is important is during the drill they found no evidence of hydrocarbons in the shallower zones. This indicates any oil down there is sealed effectively below the new an much lower regional seal located deeper than Repsol thought in the Cretaceous.
Albian-Aptian, shallow marine carbonate reservoirs, the main targets at Gemsbok, Lion, Dik Dik and Welwitschia Deep. The Welwitschia Deep prospect is a fault and dip-closed structural trap, as are the Gemsbok, Lion and Dik Dik prospects in the company's PEL0029 licence which is immediately adjacent to PEL0094 to the west.
*Plus*
The Geoscience team and NAMCOR - showing the evidence for an up-dip bypass zone for the non-deposition of sediment, and/or laterally continuous fault systems that will provide up-dip trapping.
The 3 prominant Target source rocks as descibed by Uaapi Utjavari (Namcor & NAMPOA) are -
1. The Aptian (+Syn - Rift source rocks)
2. The Cenomanian
3. The Turonian
https://www.repsol.com/imagenes/global/en/HR_29012014_Exploration_Day_2014_CNMV_tcm14-14246.pdf
Is important to show the difference between Pancontinental and Pancontinental Namibia
AEC bought one third of Pan/Namibia which relates to PEL37 and nothing else. So effectively Pan/Nam had 30% inteserst in PEL37 giving AEC a 10% interest in PEL37
Global Namibia, having two blocks could through up all sorts of combinations. If we end up with a free carry including two wells and hold just 15% of over 4 billion potential barrels. There is plenty of history with previous companies in a similar situation that went from pennies to pounds, in days after an rns
Current M/cap £4m, if we had a deal covering both blocks, it is very possible we could be drilling WD this year. Leading up to drilling a well in WD with the new data and concept, particularly if Total have hit oil by then, we could be easily see a M/cap around £80-100m imo
It is a difficult one to predict.
PCL in PEL 37
Pancontinental farmed out to Tullow Namibia Limited (a subsidiary of Tullow Oil plc) in September 2013, thereby reducing its interest to 30% and under conditions that will see it free carried through extensive 3D and 2D seismic programmes and an exploration well.
In September 2017, Pancontinental and Africa Energy Corp. (“AEC”) closed negotiations with regard to AEC’s investment in the Company’s subsidiary that holds the Namibian asset, PEL 37. The deal worth US $7.7 million provides AEC with a 33.33% holding in the subsidiary, leaving Pancontinental with a majority interest of 66.67%. The first tranche payment of US $2.2 million was received at closing and a second payment of US $5.5 million will be due at the commencement of drilling the PEL 37 well which is anticipated during 2018.
My view is we will get 100% carry and retain 10-15%.
Should we hit oil......I will let you work out the maths
I think the position to take on what the contacts with counterparties actually means depends on your personality and outlook. GBP joined NAMPOA which if you scroll down further you’ll find some info on.
I really have no idea on how long and would they drill this year. That would totally depend on the counterparties as one of those should a deal be struck become the operator and then we would be in there hands. I see two short term plays which should increase value currently, an oil strike elsewhere in Namibia and a farm out signed off. After those, we can think about oil and drilling.
Cheers mate for the summary. I take it these counterparties must be outbidding in terms of better value or options from one another. Surely seems like number of them interested or involved. When you think we shall hear from them? Do you think they will drill this year?
In a nutshell..
New information from the results of previous local drills plus the Brupadda discovery in South Africa may have given the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle.
New info/target - Regional seal, target source rocks, continuous fault systems providing up dip trapping.
All the above brings focus to GBP's main prospects - Gemsbok, Lion, Dik Dik & Welwitcshia Deep. All sit below the regional seal, include the target source rocks, all dip closed structural traps and are up dip. It is the regional high and also the regional closure due to the Walvis Ridge.
We have no money to drill and are 100% reliant on a farm out otherwise the oil hopefully to be found there will remain there.
There is some 3D on PEL 94 which the board have yet to purchase. All COS and size is based on 2D data only.
For 3 quarterly's the board have said, inital contacts with counterparties, further contacts with counterparties and further contacts with counterparties regarding a possible far out of PEL 94 & 29.
We have 85% of the licences to play with and hopefully the pendulum has swung in our favour as previous deals have been targeting prospects above the regional seal. Hopefully we can achieve 2 x free carry drills keeping 15-20%? 1 drill on PEL 94 and 1 drill on PEL 29.
I've been interested in this share in the past as multibillion barrel potential is exciting if it comes off......been a few years since, but could somebody kindly summarise what's going on here as the mcap is very attractive.....
Thx Jimarillo
Nope, it is all relevant . Azinam, Eco, AOI, AEC, Impact Oil & Gas and Seapulse are all connected in one way or another
"Azinam’s three-year business plan includes the objective of drilling eight high-impact, multi-billion barrels of oil potential wells offshore Namibia and South Africa, thoroughly testing the margin’s potential and exploiting low drilling costs."
Are we going off piste here ?
Slide 14, farmout due Q1
https://www.africaenergycorp.com/site/assets/files/144715/aec_corp_presentation_january_20_2020_pareto.pdf
You couldn't make it up.
Ok, back on track........and talking of S/Africa, Azinam have just signed off on their S/A deal with Lundin co. AOI
Lundin co. AEC are due to sign a deal on this asset S/A , it would not surprise me if target 5 being negotiated is this one
https://africaenergycorp.com/site/assets/files/3246/2018-11-block-2b-aow.pdf