The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi OracleofOldham
I read you post and can't disagree with you. In the end is difficult to quantify risks because it changes from situation to situation and also from people perception to other people perception. No doubt buying any retracement can be a great tactics but one has to be more and more sure of the outcome if more and more cash is going in one direction. Some people are as well successful investors when buying on the up, meaning more the share rise more they buy, like I did last night with GRR. I invest trying to make money no to be proven right, in other words I don't mind to be wrong as long as I make money.
....Saynig that though if one take a look at the Dinieper River, it makes a nice logical geographical virtual border between Russia wanna be and reduced Ukraine, in which case goodbye Poltava.
Correct Hunter111000 the Kerch Strait.
It make sense if the Russian were to exert any territorial power it would be in areas closer to home....
Moreover as Crimea is their naval base and nowadays well established Russian land, it makes sense to regard it a avan-post last frontier dividing Russia with Ukraine. Meaning that for Fxpo possibly its export port should/could be safe.
HI Tiger,
giving away half of Ukraine (300 squared KM) by mistake is a pretty bit mistake.
The idea they are going to roll the tanks in and try and grab back such a huge area of land just doesn't seem realistic IMO.
From other borders it seems that Russia's way currently is to make some local trouble, claim a victory and then leave things pretty much as they are.
That Russia has control of Crimea and boarders the black sea to the east takes away much desire for such a large scale war.
To the north, though they cause occasional issues with the Baltic states, they have Kalliningrad and I don't think there is serious speculation as to them trying to reconquer any other areas up there.
Crimea strikes me as the black sea equivalent.
Putin also has to be more careful with the US now his puppet is not in the whitehouse and I again cannot see such a large land grab without the US and EU putting troops on the ground.
We shall see, this is all speculation but I feel this is just the latest media hysteria story and it's giving a good opportunity to get in cheap with this stock.
The Sea is shared jointly between Ukraine and Russia. The rail lines head to the deeper water moorings to the west of Crimea, and I think a small quantity was originally shipped by barge down the Dnieper, though i don't know if they still do.
Kerch Strait, means they've shut off all shipping to the ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov (which i think mostly is traversed by barge as it's very shallow) They've been delaying shipments through the strait for many years, but they'll ramp up those delays when they're try to put pressure on those ports.
I was reading today that the Russian have made a naval blockade in the strait of... And near Crimea. Sorry can't remember names it was on aljazera news. In any case all land on the east side of Crimea toward Russia (which makes strategic sense). Now if these are territories of Russia interest for any invasion, are they not concerning with the port Fxpo uses for export?
Dear Oracle!
The vast majority of Russians - even including Navalny - will tell you that over half of Ukraine is Russian land, populated by Russian speakers, and that it belongs to Ukraine by mistake. They will admit that Lvov/Lviv/Lemberg in the West is not Russian. Opinions are divided about Kiev, as that is the ancient seat of Rus. But they are certain that Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk (named after a Russian Tsar!), Donetsk and so on are Russian cities.
Putin was never more popular in Russia after the invasion of Crimea. His popularity has been slipping badly of late. This may be his chance to restore his image and cement what he would see as his legacy.
Of one thing I am almost 100% sure - if the Russians do divide up the Ukraine, then FXPO's assets will fall into the Russian-claimed half, and the Swiss holding company FXPO will lose control of them. And no court will ever be able to restore them. So it would be a total loss here.
The question for me is, what are the Russians planning to do?
I'm of the opinion that Russia would like a better control over the Black Sea coast in southern Ukraine, as well as fresh water supplies along the Dnieper River, they wouldn't want to take all, but just take enough territory to strangle Ukraine from the south. They've enough willpower to keep what they can take. If the southern coast is taken from Ukraine, it would seriously impact transport from the mine, even if they stopped short of total control to Kyiv. Blockades of ports would be highly likely if it reached any sort of escalation.
Maybe think about it a different way.
Why would Russia want to completely invade Ukraine?
What is the benefit to them to take over the country?
I am well aware I can be wrong but I don't see the benefit from Putin's side to take over a country, and to put Ferrexpo's assets at risk they will have to push up to Kiev.
Ukraine is quite a big area and I just cannot see Russia even wanting to push that far into Ukraine, nor can I see the benefit. I am not sure the chance to get their hands on Ferrexpo quite balances up with the risk of all out war.
I can see the current benefit for Putin to look tough in the media and talk big about protecting Russian people but the worst thing I think you can do with a share is to take your guidance from what the press says. They are always going to paint the worst picture because fear and outrage sells papers or gets clicks.
Long story short, everyone in any share should do your research on why you buy it and should keep an eye on what is happening, but personally if there is an escalation and the price drops more than 10%-15% I will be adding to my holdings.
Funnily that drop will only take it back to where it was a couple weeks ago which seems to tell me the market currently can't see a full Russian invasion either.
Good luck all.
It seems the rapid gains of yesterday have all quickly evaporated. This is to be expected given the current risk attached to Ukraine and Fxpo. I mean IF and I repeat If Russia invade, we are talking about the possibility to lose it all.... Not just a small share price dropp.. There has always to a certain degree been attached a discount to fxpo sp, either for its ownership, tax evasion and/or geografic reasons. Many of us with time and carefull consideration have ventured too invest in Fxpo. In my view this risk6and sp discount will always be there even more now that the Russian what to get involved, this is one more issue attached to the others which ufficially have never gone away. I am still out and although is tenting to see a sp rise 7% in one day like yesterday, today I proove that these gains can't be maintained till the Russina issue is definetly resolved. Meanwhile my other iron ore stock invested since getting out of Fxpo are up some 20%.... I am sure I made the right decision.