Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tsbs - BP will want all lose ends tied up. IMHO the money from production has been been paid into FEGL to cover the SH/O debt, which will nullify the Texas case.
GOOD LUCK ALL. You be lucky to see this private company come back to the market. Could be years. And I mean years. Then they may trade on a different market platform. That makes it hard to buy and sell. I've wrote this off. 5k gone and I was well in profit.
Precisely bp will pick this up for next to nothing once we fold. You dont go through all this hassle to strike a deal doesnt make sense..
johnnybbad - Possibly, or maybe the door is left open for someone else, like SOCAR to bid and deal with Russia. I was thinking more in how the Caucasus regions hydrocarbons are developed without upsetting Russia.
My previous theory was that the no show in the Ukraine and lack of information on the court cases were linked to a total buyout after an agreement through ADR (after all lose ends were tied). The new information about the Texas case suggests that SN and ZM haven't even acknowledged that case. If they were negotiating in ADR, then I doubt that they would have ignored the Texas case. This new information, plus revised thoughts about BP et al, and possibly FRR as well (due to Avi8r's post and my 26th July post), suggests that they don't want the Dolphin prospect, or due to the timescales are no longer interested. Therefore, IMHO BP et al are not after FRR lock, stock and barrel, but just Block 12, this means that as soon as Mourant and the liquidators are paid (nullifying the Texas case), a deal can be signed. The Californian case can then proceed at leisure, as it's just noise. Either FRR win with discovery evidence, or they win on appeal in another jurisdiction with the smoking gun (YA) and SH goes off to meet Zib's Mr Big.
I'm hoping SN and Zaza's refusal to pay what they owe is simply them holding firm until FRR eventually have the money to pay the bill.
The master plan as it presently stands...
1. Withhold money from Hope for as long as possible
2. BP eventually step in and buyout or JV block 12
3. Money becomes available for FRR to pay the money owed to SH and others
4. SN and Zaza's personal fortunes remain in tact - FRR have paid the bills rather than SN/ZZ
5. Their shares are now worth a fortune - definitely not something they would want to have had to hand over to SH for a paltry $2 million.
GLA
I assumed that the Zaza no show was linked to BP et al wanting FRR lock, stock and barrel, I may have been barking up the wrong tree.
---------> I assume that Zaza's silence is linked to BP & Co wanting FRR's stock and barrel, I may have been barking up the wrong tree.
Agree Tim what does this mean Madp at the end of your post???
I assumed that the Zaza no show was linked to BP et al wanting FRR lock, stock and barrel, I may have been barking up the wrong tree.
Summat wrong today. Both my other punts in the top ten risers and feeling positive (slightly) about this.
Cant.t find the thermometer otherwise I would take my temperature.
Don't wake me up until official news that we will all get at least 50p a share
I assumed that the Zaza no show was linked to BP et al wanting FRR lock, stock and barrel, I may have been barking up the wrong tree.
What do you mean madp?
After reading Avi8r's post from Sunday i looked back at my post from the 26th July. I've copied both posts below :-
Given trumps comments on the middle east now being a lost cause invites debate on whether there is political awareness involved in the Caucasus. Saudi Arabia is currently 2nd with 266,455 million barrels, but 19bn barrels puts Georgia next in line to Qatar (https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-world-s-largest-oil-reserves-by-country.html)
I am not surprised to see this megalomaniac behaviour from him, but something must be driving his decision making. He really hasn't got the intelligence to work these things out for himself. I am still of the view that strong politics are at play here behind the scenes and Frontera is merely a pawn in the process, Hope a minor irritation, which we are watching play out.
Whether it re-lists on LSE is the big question as if that does happen I think many people will become quite wealthy, particularly if Madpunters numbers are anywhere close to reality.
Posted by Madpunter @ 18:57 on the 26th July :-
The big picture
As the world moves towards a lower carbon model, then off-shore drilling with the extra risk (think about the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico) will decline. Some projects will never come into production. The world will still need oil and gas, but the emphasis will be on gas for fuel in the transitional period. As for the oil which will still be required for non-energy uses, the emphasis will be for on-shore. With this in mind and BP waiting in the wings to sign on the dotted line, why would FRR want the Dolphin License? Furthermore, the Russian annexe of the Crimea would add to the risk of the venture becoming profitable. IMHO FRR initiated the tender process to get rid of the license, as BP were not interested in another off-shore venture. IMHO FRR is close to signing a deal with the super majors and the court cases are just as Kickmuck referred to as 'just noise'.
Posted by BezzyBushFire @ 19:11 :-
Evening MadPunter,
I'd recommend sticking your 18:57 post into the Frontera archive. We're going to look back in the not-too-distant future over these retained posts and I don't think you'll be far off the mark.....
IMHO big politics are at play like Avi8r suggests and adding my thoughts from July results in my opinion changing about the Ukraine bid and court case. Trident is out of the picture now and the door is left open, but will FRR bid if BP et al just buy Block 12 and BP are not interested in a JV in the Ukraine? If BP et al buyout FRR, will they be interested in a bid for Dolphin? I'm not so sure and while I assumed that the Zaza no show was linked to BP et al wanting FRR lock, stock and barrel, I may have been barking up the wrong tree.