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Agree that it makes much sense on Frr offloading & in way ties in with the 2 other companies that have been set up of which ZM would be able to give a reasonable opening bank balance with part of his loot.
Difference here is that fracking technology is releasing oil from old commercial wells previously thought exhausted rather than finding new resources. If it were not for this technology we would probably be starting to run low on these resources globally even with new field discoveries.
I've no doubt Russia wants to dismiss findings of oil since it undermines its power in the region. It's no doubt true that in the past some have come to none but fracking has changed all that.
I believe we are likely near a breakthrough with the official completion of the Arbitration soon to be done, we hope. To my mind the only logical course of action for FRR is to have a buyout or similar primed ready for immediate action on completion of the Arbitration. On a buyout such a company such as BP or Exxon will take over the OMF debt which they will have no trouble sorting out. We all as shareholders including Zaza & SN, etc will get a good return on our investment, job done :) Sheer logic tells us there would be little point carrying on, the field will have been proved up so that is all that is needed. There is no point doing the whole Hope court action later in the year, BP, Exxon or whoever will take over that and either press the case or settle, most likely settle as it's of little money to them.
So to my mind this is almost a fixated event and it makes no sense to do otherwise. Even getting out a new loan would be messing around, it might happen but with the field proved up I can't see why a Major wouldn't be very keen and for us little reason to press on with a company juggling the debt whilst trying to develop the field at too slow a rate.
Odds are this could all happen around March time with completion of the Arb.
“This is not the first or last such story. Indeed, in other countries there were situations when someone came there and “discovered” some field, and as a result, the story turned out to be empty investments, ”Perov summarizes.
The Georgians were so keen to have their own gas reserves that they believed the statements of Frontera Resources, because of which considerable money was invested in the activities of this structure, but this project ended with proceedings in international arbitration.
This is not the first such situation in the post-Soviet space
Despite the fact that the USSR had very good geological exploration, the post-Soviet states constantly declare that huge reserves of oil and gas have been found in these countries. The most striking example is Turkmenistan, which declared itself the largest country in the world in terms of gas reserves, as well as Azerbaijan, which claimed to be able to supply gas to all of Europe.
As a result, Turkmens cannot qualitatively increase their gas supplies to China, and the Shah Deniz field is not even enough to supply the TANAP gas pipeline, which cost the EU enormous money. Now Baku for this project generally buys gas from Gazprom.
“Turkmenistan has not been able to confirm its claim to first place in the world in terms of gas reserves, and as for Azerbaijan, this country has big problems with the implementation of its oil and gas projects,” Perov notes.
For example, in the nineties, Russia was scared that Azerbaijan had found several huge deposits on the Caspian shelf and would soon take our country's place in the oil market. Then it turned out that there were oil reserves there, but much more modest than stated.
“There was a story with gas reserves in Ukraine, which are there, but do not have great commercial value, that is, the extraction of raw materials will not be profitable, which is why Western companies decided not to join this country, ”Perov concludes.
In Ukraine, there was even an informational throw-in that Donbass wanted to seize because of its shale gas reserves, but all this was not worth a damn egg if we take commercial production, and not just the presence of deposits. After all, the cost of reserves does not depend on their quantity, but on the complexity of extraction, since energy is, first of all, an economic process.
“But in Ukraine there are reserves of mine methane, so it is not clear why the Ukrainians needed a story with shale gas in order to attract investment, given that they had such energy at hand,” sums up Perov.
Thus, the Georgian opportunity is far from the only one in the history of international energy.
Source https://rueconomics.ru/425772-demokraticheskoe-sotrudnichestvo-s-ssha-vylilos-dlya-gruzii-v-gazovuyu-aferu