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Looed- I thought that was a useful summary of our present position. Let’s hope something good comes from all of this.
Sorry I wish I had started this under a different thread.
And I should have mentioned I am not claiming anything new - we have discussed this type of thing endless amounts of times. It's just that for me it came together a bit more solidly over the past few days .
From GOGC - You get all the land back, you want to develop it - and now all this political drama unfolds? FRR still pulling some strings? An attempt to delay pro Eastern companies moving in until a Western friendly govt take over? Anger that FRR are not paying the penalties and complaining about a contract the termination of which they have already complied with? That this blummin Yankee company didn't have the good manners to thank and grovel to GOGC - and therefore GD - for allowing them to continue to operate and despite their poor record and performance which was noted via the Award? Still trying to work this one out.
5- I think GOGC anger now is over the small details and unwillingness to play by Zaza. If - and its a big if - I am right that the 1% is still with us then he better have a water tight deal to prevent more action from GOGC.
6- The asset and its move. That was deemed illegal by the GOGC's interpretation but wasn't mentioned in the latest statement. If FRR still have the 1% - does the asset still exist? Wasn't it already broken up by the Award?
7- This is a creaky theory and full of holes but I am going to run with it until anyone can show the weakness and flaws in it. Hopefully we can find more evidence to confirm / refute or send us in another direction soon
Hi Ziggy - I posted a bit on it yesterday. I am going to adopt this maybe simplistic view with the caveat that there is still much to be figured out. I am basing this on my interpretation of the most recent statements by GOGC and Zaza.
I am going to go point by point to see if it flows in a plausible way
1- The termination of the PSA is complete. Zaza says the land was returned 3-4 week ago, and that roughly lines up with the date the termination was issued. In fact FRR returned the land almost as soon as the Termination was issued. The return of the disputed land was I presume already agreed by Arbitration - hence both sides being "happy" with the outcome which they have both stated. I am going to assume all the noise about "They can't terminate the agreement" was because the Award sits above the PSA so in essence, there is no PSA to terminate. The issuance of the termination might indicate that FRR where dragging their feet and this was a push - FRR do seem to have returned the land ASAP rather than wait to 27 July.
2 I said this yesterday and I today I still see it in the same way. The most important part of the GOGC statement was the final part -
"From the beginning of the proceeding, GOGC committed to honor and respect any award rendered by the Arbitral Tribunal, and to refrain from unilaterally exercising rights under the PSC pending the final arbitration award. Moreover, the original PSC had a 10-year exploration period that was extended twice to a total of 20 years, which expired in November 2017, thus triggering FRGC’s obligations to relinquish the exploration territories located outside the existing Exploitation/Development Area. The allegations as if SAOG and GOGC were eager to take control of these exploration territories are thus nonsensical."
My - hopeful - read of that is that the developed areas had never been part of the land under Arbitration. They stay with FRR.
3 We did have statements from GOGC stating the PSA had been terminated in relation to the whole contract area. Thats not mentioned in the most recent release. Its a big leap of faith but I think it means the 1% is still in play, not just because its not mentioned, but because the PSA is no longer fit for purpose and no longer reflects the reality on the ground (I wish I had more to back this up)
4 So why all the noise? Both sides have to accept the Award, FRR keep the land they want, there are some financial penalties to be settled presumably to a timetable set out in the Award. This is where my thinking gets a little shaky.
From FRR side - Keep Hope guessing? Finances are terrible so pressure is needed to get GOGC back to the table? The much rumoured SM / backer / some other party wants to keep things quiet until other legal issues are resolved? Political manoeuvres back in USA ? None of the above?
Ziggy & Seeingred _ I am writing my reply now but want to lay it out point by point so I still think it makes sense so please give me a little time. But I think whats happening is very positive for us. Let me crack on with my fuller reply
A joint statement would be great but from their respective standpoints is not realistic .I think that is just a bluff .
Us senators will not have seen the arb doc and will not want to .I bet you could get more than 10 senators to back trumps idea of injecting bleach .
hi Looed , why do you think a joint statement ( assuming thats what you mean )is no longer required?
Seeingred - The Arbitrator won't issue a statement. Either side (or both i suppose) have 30 days to seek a clarification from the date of the award, and the Panel have 30 days to review, revise and publish. Neither side has any duty to advise this has happened or the result, but it would be nice it did happen.
I don't think a statement from both sides is needed anymore based on the GOGC statement and the latest from Zaza.
At no point did I say that America is not complicit, you assumed that. I considered it a given that America would be in the know considering those high up are probably the largest shareholders (as someone once said)
Your misunderstanding has a striking similarity to a badly written Hollywood movie. Totally unbelievable, my mind could not comprehend the absurdity.
Seingred - absolutely. I agree state to state actions can include propaganda. Scripts is saying the opposite.He is suggesting is that Zaza has actually played the Americans with the fake news that FRR won. That Zaza has managed to bend and coerce the highest levels of US Govt to his will with a fake news propaganda war. At the same time Zaza will cause the downfall of GD by withholding the agreement.
Brg , its blindingly obvious that with their completely opposite versions that a joint statement is impossible and a hollow offer . now ,if they said that the arbitrators could release a statement that would be a different matter .
Looed,many on here have long used cia backing as a plus . To me it is totally believable that there is an orchestrated propaganda move to unseat g d at the next elections and replace one corrupt regime for their corrupt regime which is more compliant with american agendas Thats the best outcome for frr holders if we are still part of the loop and last that long . I dont believe Hogan lovell would state what they have if it were untrue . Georgians went to arbitration to prove frr commited material breach in 2017 . GgI dont see any of frrr lawyers backing zz version.
If the georgian gvnt cancel the psa and this is contrary to the arbitration that they have stated they will honour then this would be a serious breach of the arbitration agreement . They have top lawyers .Is this likely ?
America invaded iraq on the back of untrue wmd allegations and grabbed the oil and is robbing the People of Iraq . Trump stitched up the kurds but seems to think he has a right to their oil in Syria .
one thing you can be sure of is that the majority of zz cash is most likely not in georgia but some nice secretive tax haven so if it all backfires and georgian dream should win he will be us based and beyond answering any questions back home in Georgia .
Just another theory .
I say potato, you say tomato.
Let's call the whole thing off.
Brgmg69, both can be pushing knowing neither would agree. Think for a moment, if FRR hadn’t given an alternative to the release of the doc.
If FRR are lying why push for a joint statement?
Looed- if the GOGC are lying, why push for the release of the arbitration awards?
This is what I’m saying.
Scripts it still not making much sense to me. You seem to be saying "Everything GOGC have said is true, the Award found in their favour etc, but they won't push for publication as it will prove that everything is actually false"
I think you need to re-read what was written, but in the off chance you still can’t make sense of it, I will hopefully simplify it...
it makes no sense for the GOGC to insist on the publication of the Arb awards if it proves all they say to be a lie.
Sec para- the Arb award may contain information of a SM involved in a possible buyout, thus, FRR permitting the release will in effect be a breach of the NDA.
Not so crooked considering it will be for the greater good.
Scripts - You proposed that "everything the GOGC say is true" but now say any release which would support that position will instead prove them false? I am not sure I am understanding what you are saying.
And I don't quite get the second para - you mean you are not talking about the Award now but a separate NDA? Or the NDA is part of the Award (in which case my previous answer applies)
I think saying that " Zaza has now set out to discredit the GD and ruin their chances of re-election by spreading false news and having America turn against them." sounds pretty crooked. You are promoting our company actively take part in deception and more on a grand scale.
Looed, time will tell whether it’s a valid theory or not, because what I can’t understand is why the GOGC are asking for the release of the Arb awards when it’s going to prove them false in their statements. What sense is there in that if they don’t have something to gain from it?
I can only assume it will ONLY breach an NDA between FRR and a SM if FRR permit the release of the document.. Hence the inclusion of a confidentiality provision (most probably FRR’s idea). Maybe you in your infinite wisdom can give an alternate as undoubtedly you’ll have one whether you choose to acknowledge and share it or not.
Also At no point did I say Zaza was a crook, I believe he is being forced to play a hand that he’d rather not have played, that doesn’t make him a crook, but quite the opposite. When the battleground is in the mud, you have to play dirty.
And by the way, I don’t have to believe a theory for it to be one. Note the thread subject “another possible theory”.
In reply to your "only valid question" well this is what the Arbitration Board itself says - "a breach of confidentiality undertaking (if the parties are bound by any such provision) would not have an effect on the enforceability of the arbitral award." If you accept the GOGC are being truthful then you must surely accept the truthfulness in their statements regarding release. Ultimately. If their very existence relies on the suppression of the Award, they can publish it at any time they choose.
It is suspect to claim your CEO is no better than a crook but then hedge your bets with a reassuring "he's a gentleman" closer.
Anyway, as your valid question no longer has validity then presumably this unravels the rest of your claims.
If you think about it from the perspective of a director of a company that has been persecuted by a corrupt government for many years, it’s a logical play to make. Lose millions of personal wealth or play the same dirty game as your oppressors. Easy decision IMO, coupled with the probability of an easy cover up - not to ever permit the release of the arbitration awards.
The only valid question being, (if the GOGC are telling the truth) what’s to stop them releasing the arb docs without the permission of FRR.
Don’t get me wrong, I want this to come good as much as Rainbow, and I invested in this company after much research. I still believe Zaza is a gentleman and has not forgotten about his shareholders, his not communicating directly with us has a valid reason.
Aurora1 - imposer also works.
Last week people where why-oh-whying about lack of positivity toward Zaza. Now they seem happy to accept that GOGC where right all along, Zaza hasn't just been lying to SH, but to anyone and everyone. Having utterly failed, Zaza has two last chance strategies in play. Really - A blatant fake news propaganda war targeting American institutes of power to redefine geopolitical relations (for a second step and think what that would actually entail).
All to deflect from the potential positives that can be gleamed from the recent actual statements from both sides. No doubt we will be attacked for once again not being positive about Zaza's duplicity and desperation!
and before the cogster jumps in it was Impostors