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Zib - I just posted something new but I am not liking what it says!
Looed...bit of advice leave out B20 and concentrate on new stuff that you're exemplary at. B20...has been calling black swans before they were black....he's a WUM.
B-2-0 revealed that his theory was based on a newspaper article. In the same post - in fact in the very next sentence - he makes a warning akin to "don't believe what you read in the papers". Pity he wasn't more discerning and able to take his own advice.
Banter is **** ere tonight! Il pop back when there is a change of scenery. :)
I don't believe anyone would put that much effort and time, researching a delisted company to develop that depth of knowledge 'for sport'
Yes that makes sense .
PJOHN ,
It's a discussion board with different views. It so happens that I still believe in Zaza. That does not mean I wont have a chat with Star and listen to what he has to say. I know I'm on the different side of the fence to him .
B-20 is the most dangerous poster in this BB talking elequently with knowledge of the oil and gas business but unable to back up anything they say and disappears off for weeks on end after raising hopes. I dont believe a word they say and think its sport for whoever they are.
You dont have to come on here being a keyboard warrior when someone has a different opinion to you.
According to Reuters, at the time the large selling was happening there was an ii holding circa 600 mil shares!
Sadly that does make sense. I think about 600-800 million were offloaded Sept -Dec. The options of who the big seller was is limited . If it was Zaza and SN they held 2.7 billion between them why not keep the company trading on the stock exchange and clear a hell of alot more as they would still be left with about 2 billion on christmas eve if it was them.
Perhaps the NOMAD got wind of who the big seller was
Just like you guys want B20 to prove his posts.
Can you guys post evidence of zaza selling his shares. Now this going to be a long bank holiday evening lmfao. Jokers how low will you rats go??
Dear o dear been out all day! Now the theories are zaza sold off all his shares.
Now I know why B20 just pops in once and a while! Lmfao
ODR , I thought I picked up from.Moles recent postings that he had unearthed something that suggested Zaza was aligned with us still . I think he mentioned it on more than one occasion.
If I have that wrong and he only said that on the back of Zazas share holding thats no comfort to me at all anymore.
It wont be any comfort to know you were not the only one taken in .
A small comfort is Zaza did actually go through with the investor evening in October 2018 when he could of cancelled it and spoke very positively. Saying that if he was the big seller he bought another 10 weeks of selling opportunity.
Every positive has a negative here and vise versa.
In the early days main reason we put forward for company lockdown re communications to us or indeed anyone centred round ....because they have probably been told by legals to stay stumb to everyone because of litigation....
Litigation is still ongoing on different fronts in US and clearly Arbi is very relevant to some of those cases... but Zaza is now talking , but not to us .
Here’s a theory ...has he been told not to talk to us on the fear of potential shareholder action against the Company once this saga has been played out.
The only person who knows why Zaza is speaking to everyone else but shareholders is Zaza. I hope there is a good reason for this and one day we will find out one way or another. My only concern is that he sees no value engaging with us as we are not part of his future plans, hope/pray I'm wrong!
Politics is seldom ever clean but often dirty, now I’m by no means calling Zaza a liar, but perhaps he has to play the game dependant on his opponent. The world is corrupted by fake news, perhaps it’s one thing to tell a lie or two to the press to bring about a change in government and another thing to lie to his shareholders. Just thinking out loud.
Gipps: I think Mole believes Zaza is aligned with us only on the basis of Zaza's shareholding. Nothing more. Would be delighted to be corrected.
This has been the key to this all along and probably the main reason I got so heavily invested. Zaza struck me as a determined selfish successful charismatic business person so I wanted to be aligned with him. Only time will tell if that was a sound judgement, but it isn't looking promising...
GLA
Looed ,
You are probably right. As I said I would love to hear the Oopsi take on why Zaza is speaking freely in the press and doing interviews but has not spoke directly to the shareholders. There must be a reason and i was just speculating tbh.
I think most peoples worry is that as we have not been mentioned for 18 months is Zaza trying to throw is of the bus. Mole seems to have put that worry to bed as he believes he is aligned with us.
Yes I believe it's good he backed off. He spoke to Zaza on the friday then on Saturday we heard Zaza speak in the press. This could have been rushed out so the reporter could not misquoted him , just guessing.
We dont know what interference was going on behind the scenes . The paper he worked for might have been told in no uncertain terms dont publish anything that could be seen as supportive to Zaza.
My pleasure Gipps51.
In the press Zaza is referred to as CEO of Frontera so that seems pretty official to me. I am not implying that anything underhand is going on - just I see a disconnect between bring told to keep quiet (if indeed that's the case) and at the same time being front and centre of your own marketing campaign. If he has to keep quiet I would have expected more "sources close to FRR believe" type messaging.
In hindsight its best the reporter backed off then. If you saw my post earlier about how people might have mis-read the article that DomFok shared. What a pity that reporter wasn't on the case earlier - I would like to have seen that journalist take on FRR and GOGC, We might have actually got some useful information.
I know its a holiday in UK and it is also a holiday in Georgia so its might be a quiet news day. Last time I said this we had a flurry of press releases so I hope by repeating it, I can once again jinx myself.
Your welcome Looed,
Zaza must have his reasons why he has not spoke directly to us. I'm sure he has been advised legally not to do so. Perhaps Oopsi would have an idea.
If he spoke to us shareholders directly that would have to be in an official capacity as the CEO and everything he said would need to be backed up . When he speaks to the media he has more of a free hand to speak his mind , I'm just thinking out loud . I might be way off.
There is a reason though and we have to respect his handling of the communications. He obviously knows that anything he says gets back to us anyway.
Mole said he is aligned with us and we have, atm to put out trust in him .
Thanks for the reply about the Arbitrators not cancelling the PSA . They were not asked to make a call on that . The GG have taken it upon themselves to do that. The next litigation will be a challenge to the cancelling of the PSA which will take us through the election in October and hopefully a change at the top.
On another note I was in touch with the reporter Luka up until about three weeks ago when he cut contact as he had a strop apparently about what was said on the BB.
My opinion now looking back was he wanted me to give him ammunition to write an article that enabled him give a shareholders view detrimental to Zaza that he could print .
Thanks for all you do and post.
Best wishes .
At the moment the main thing that still gives Frr life, is the fact that ZM, is still fighting.
In end we need to hope on there being a reasonable bit of truth in what ZM has been saying.
On date that has been mentioned by GOGC being reached we will have to go on what is being said around that date.
Enjoy
Gipps51 - Thanks for a well thought out reply. In reading, I can see what you mean about the lack of comms - but how does that sit with the recent public pronouncements where he states his version of the award (though scant on detail). I don't see how that's OK but sharing same level - if not less - of info with us could be a violation.
You mention about the arbitrators not cancelling the PSA and the GOGC statement of 7th May supports that - "Contrary to Frontera’s statement the arbitration claims raised by GOGC and the Agency did not seek cancellation of the contract among the parties. Nor could it, since termination requires a declaration in arbitration of a material breach. The Arbitration Tribunal has unambiguously ruled the material breach of the contract by Frontera. As a result, the Agency has served termination notice upon Frontera based on the respective contractual provision."
" They know further litigation would be on it's way with years more delay to any financial benefit if they dont come to the table at some point. "
Unfortunately this is exactly what Mr Putin would want IMO
Well there is no doubt that what we have discovered in Block 12 is worth fighting for.
Zaza made it clear at the last meeting in October 2018 that Super Majors had been on the scene a very long time and that they seemed only to have to cross the Ts and dot the I s.... fast forward to April 2020
Zaza seemed to communicate in one of his interviews that 5 American companies had verified 30 TCF over a period of 18 months . That's worth billions . Anything between $1 billion and $3 billion a TCF.
Any super major involvement or offer would definitely have been in the arbitration documents . That for me is why Zaza does not want to release the findings of the arbitrational panel. That would only damage our position , the SM could walk if we broke any NDA and come back with the same deal and deal with the GG and we are cut out. The GG could even sweeten any deal .
Theres no way Zaza could release snippets of the arbitration to support us. It would be an all or nothing situation . That's not going to happen.
We have spent over half a billion dollars over 23 years probably proving up billions in assets. Would the arbitrators say we deserve nothing ?
Theres no way the arbitrators would have said the GG can cancel the PSA , that's the GG going for the jugular. Could it be they have done that to force a deal with FRR ? They know further litigation would be on it's way with years more delay to any financial benefit if they dont come to the table at some point.
Its clear Zaza is aligned with us . It's his lifes work , he is a man of the people and is fighting like crazy.
This has some time to run yet. Probably past any election which is scheduled for October.
Just some layman's rambling thoughts , not in any particular order.
Thank you Looed and I'm sure everyone is delighted that Mole is back .
I miss the Puddy swingometer !
Good luck
Morning Mole and thanks for putting all that into context. Hope it helps remind readers how perilous our position is.
Morning Looed another interesting sets of comments from Hogan Lovell.
Again if you place those into the timeline of past few years they fit quite nicely.
In middle of that period 2016 to 2017 was when GG started first round of comment in media about FRR fulfilling obligations when Steve N started making noise about being discouraged from gas investment and as a result went to see the Georgian president.
So in the run up to the end of exploration phase GG were on the face of it willing to talk about the PSA. Does that seem credible? Yes you would be surprised if that was not the case.
Now they commented at the time about FRR balance sheet and how they could fund commitments.
At that time Enter Outrider with round 1 of the loan notes battle. For a year between June 2016 and may 2017 FRR were not able to do anything as the share headroom was exhausted and cash in bank imponded by administrator of the old loan note holding company. So the dispute with Outrider at that time was already impacting the PSA and the ability of FRR to manage the expiry of the exploration phase of PSA.
It was not till Q3 2017 that FRR finally got the funding together and started exploration again with Ud2. The seeds of the current situation were down in that period. Outrider went from unsecured to secure creditor and while we did not see clearly what was going on the dispute with GG which be and the arbitration was started.
The 2017 to 2018 campaign was essential to resolve both these threats. The possibility of a deal with a major goes back many years and on the face of it the drilling campaign is what could seal the deal. The secrets way the campaign outcome has been revealed has been put down to the announcement of NDA being in place and the well torturing even used to explain higher expenditure in the last set of unaudited accounts.
We are rapidly approaching the moment of truth here where the two threads of litigation which both have their roots in events of 2016 will come to a conclusion. Either FRR have a plan which may involve a major as a partner or they don't and are trying to survive by retaining the 1% as an asset to attempt to recapitalise. Of the three and applying common sense I would place loss of the asset as more likely than a major deal. If they retain 1% but without a significant deal then they have the chance to negotiate a funding package but they are carrying alot of debt in addition to the Outrider notes so that would not be easy.
Looed on where the notice was served Frontera Georgia would make sense to serve if you disputed ownership. They held the shares in the joint owned operating company of the PSA. FIT liquidated Frontera Caucasus which used to hold 100% shares in Frontera Georgia. Would have to check again the deja vu doc on the transfer to FRR US as to whether they just transferred the Frontera Georgia shares to FRR US or whether they transferred the Operating company shares. That would be the distinction between serving on both