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At the moment as there, is still so much unknown on all of this would not think on it to much. If they could wait 7yrs then they would have just waited, so overall need to see what comes out of the arbitration.
I think one of the real problems here is the PSA. If Zaza is to be believed then the last point to.sort was the PSA two months ago. Sadly from his interview it seems things have taken a backwards step since then.
The current PSA runs out in 2027 from then my understanding is that the GG can have the lot for themselves. There is something in the PSA that we can extend something to do with the refinery another 25 years but I'm pretty sure it's not the full PSA or that would be put there by now.
So that leaves us with 7 years remaining of PSA. it could take that to develop the field without the backing of a SM ... it would be in the best interests of the GG to run the PSA clock down as much as possible however they will also want some money in ASAP.
The American backing here is crucial and the fact that Zaza is Georgian without either of those things being in place we would be dead by now.
One thing, it might be. Is because GG started all this then ZM does not count the counter claim as Frr going after them. As if they stopped everything on their side then Frr would not make the counter claim.. In end unlikely we will know everything that has been going on.
Having read Zaza’s comments a couple of times got to wonder why he distances the company from $3.5B claim He is quoted as saying ....... I reiterate that the company is not suing the state for $ 3.5 billion....... and .......The company is not suing the state and has not initiated any lawsuits against it..... But In the papers submitted by FTI to NY Courts they quite clearly reference $3.5 billion counterclaim in arbitration presumably based on info from our council acting at the time Atkin Gump who they had conversations with . FTI say re Arbi........FRGC has disputed the Georgian Government’s claims against it and filed a counterclaim in the amount of USD $3.5 billion as lost profits for the period of 2012 through 2027.
As we are Not suing the state as in lawsuit in a court of law is ZaZa playing on words for the benefit of the less informed wider audience , i.e we are the victims here not the aggressors ( TRUE)
Or less likely , bearing in mind FTi also say in docs re investigating fair value for the farm out ......The Counterclaim in the Arbitration of $3.5 billion and the consideration FRUS purportedly paid for 95% ......is he downplaying that for their benefit.
Or have we in final submissions withdrawn the claim . As usual the more we learn more questions are raised .
Zaza is optimistic, but I think he would be irrespective of what he really expects from the arbitration. If he is expecting the worst he would come across as optimistic in the hope that he could encourage the GG to come to an agreement before the arbitration result. GLA
ZM on as far as what Frr think on the GG they still look as if they are putting across a conciliatory tone on GG & that is even after them trying their best to f.c.k. up Frr. This I would think would look good to the arbitration panel.
On below ZM looks to say that they are optimistic on the outcome of which reads well & on that he obviously cannot go to far otherwise the panel would start to think he is thinking it is a for gone conclusion.
The court hearings were held in London, awaiting a ruling. We do not know when. We expect to be positive in that we do not have, and we know that we have never had nearly $ 70- $ 80 million in debt to the state and we know the terms of the contract have not been violated, so We are optimistic, we hope and believe it is Georgia will continue to work and move in the right moment, when not only the company, but also for the very large benefits will be discovered by our oil and gas resource potential. "
This is my brief understanding of what Zaza said about the arbitration.....
The GG want the PSA torn up and a payment of $70-80 million.
Zaza says we have not broken ANY of the PSA and we are not sueing the Government for $3.5 billion.
I must be missing something as Regdik mentions the $3.5 billion claim in his last post... anyway...
A couple of things to add..
My thoughts on the $3.5 billion claim are that I dont believe we are claiming. The value of the field is $10s of billions , why would we let the GG get away with a payment of say $1-2 billion and keep the asset. I was glad to hear that we are not claiming anything from them on reflection. It's a show of confidence to me that we are not sueing the GG if that is so.
I was pleased that Zaza mentioned the employees wages. If it was me this would be the first subject I would want to address. He sounded honest. Didn't deny it, said money was owed to some employees and in a nut shell said it had been blown out of proportion by the GG and that the GG had sort of colluded with the workforce to get them not to accept what Zaza was offering so the GG could use it to blacked Zazas name in the country...my take.
Great to hear that 5 american companies have completed an 18 month study of Block 12 and confirmed that we have a huge reserve , the opposite of what the GG are saying. This might be the crux of the arbitration. If we can prove that we have booked reserve it would be obvious to the arbitrators what the GG were up to.
The congressmen getting involved could be to do with getting the GG to do a deal before any decision on the arbitration . A long shot but possible.
I believe that the arbitration from what we know .. and theres alot we dont is about the GG getting more of the pie. What have they got to lose , not much ... legal fees of $6 million compared to maybe getting billions more of the pie over 25-50 years.... no brainer for them . If they lose they still have what they had before bringing the arbitration.
GL to all us LTH... interesting we found all this out on 14th February. I hope we can all fall back in love with Zaza and that the shorters get massacred...