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Unfortunately, I think that will depend on the subject of B3.
Thanks Johnathansxx - that's an interesting site and thanks for sharing. Looks like its updated on a fairly regular basis. Hope the grade awarded to B2 (opposition growing power / winning) is an accurate one.
Looed. This article gives a " scores on the doors " view of the chances for a free and equal democratic process in Georgia.
https://freedomhouse.org/country/georgia/freedom-world/2020
ODR
I am just going on how I read Phils post.
I n end, as is always the case we wait & see.
Hi Phil - A while back I found a research paper ( It was a few years old, I think it was from some sort of democracy watch group in Denmark) and it had analysed how associates and family members of GD had infiltrated many of the public institutions. It did mention GOGC and gave a couple of names but when I tired to link them to GOGC today nothing came up. The article I posted a bit earlier talks about how GD have misread the room when it comes to its actions.
I also sense more legal action but am not sure in what way. Seems nigh on impossible to challenge an arbitration award. There isn't much out there on what happens when sides fail to follow through. Both sides are duty bound to accept the Award - and they do. GOGC claim victory and FRR say all good here. It would be great if at least one side has gone back to Stockholm and asked for clarification or a review of things not already decided on. We will only know if that happens if one or both sides reveal it.
If we accept the GD control the judiciary as well then as you say, it makes sense to string things along as much as possible. We have an end date of 27th July. It might explain Zaza's somewhat leisurely approach to communication and why he says we won but doesn't seem to be taking steps yet to show the proof. I don't know how long any delay tactics would be tolerated for or what steps might be taken in invalidate such actions.
The GOGC later statements do seem more absolutist in terms of things - There is none of the reaching out that Zaza has mentioned a few times. No more 99% etc. If its true and GD really is finished then they could just be creating an atmosphere in which no one would want to work in the territory. If you where an American company seeing whats going on might give you pause - but GD might think their position is bolstered by Russian backed players saying - "it's OK, we can help instead, you cant trust those Western corrupt companies - even international arbitration agrees"
We have the US politicians. The letter sent to Pompeo etc ruffled a lot of feathers and got a lot of attention. We didn't get a reply from Pompeo though I am not sure how these things work. Is the letter in itself enough to make the point, or these things are handled behind yet more closed doors.
Maybe he just doesn't want to hand it over while the dream party is in power?
Does anyone recollect when it needs to be returned, when were the 90 days from, was it the 17th of April?
Im sure in one of Zazas interviews he mentioned that they had to hand this un-worked land back and that they planned on doing just exactly that and had written to GOGC to that effect. So I fully expect that to happen. They may have had some infrastructure on some parts they needed time to rig down/remove.
Arsenal: why would they drop revoking the license? That gives them everything and they claim they have that right? Zaza has already confirmed he will be handing back the 99%.
Overall, if handing back the wasteland now will mean GOGC would drop the revoking the license of which, just might be the case.
Would seriously hope that ZM will not take anymore chances.
why wait then ? or is this more of zaza maybe underestimating the opposition
who will blink first
Looed, what are your thoughts on all this political pressure on whether it will get the GG to back down on their talked of move to revoke the license from FRR?
The GG seem to be out to get FRR. Possibly FRR might have a legal recourse if it comes to it to stay the license revocation if it looks like its coming to it.
My recent thoughts on the matter is that it may be that FRR have a certain time to return the wasteland. That FRR are holding out on doing that and so the GG are talking of license revocation as they want to get hold of the land as soon as possible than wait days & weeks for it. As someone said on here if the GG can get the wasteland back, drill and track over to the oil then it could be worth a lot to them. However the more head start FRR have and the data they hold the less lucrative that land may seem to another oil company. Longer tracking of course meaning more cost to start with.
To me it's still looking like a bit more having to sit it out and wait through June & towards July for anything to happen. My guess is once Zaza hands back the wasteland before the deadline the GG will rescind the license revocation notice.
Pt.2
The Georgian Dream failed to properly assess the situation, and the West's harsh response came as a complete surprise to them. Strict assessments by European politicians and US congressmen followed. They have made it clear that the March 8 agreement is bipartisan and that in addition to the reform of the electoral system (120 proportional and 30 majoritarian seats in today's 77/73), imprisoned opposition figures must be released. The term ‘political prisoners’ was first used with regard to them.
The Georgian Dream chose to retreat. In order to defuse the situation, President Salome Zurabishvili said on May 15th that Gigi Ugulava and Irakli Okruashvili had been pardoned and that they had been released immediately. In order to not lose face, the Georgian Dream initially stated that Zurabishvili made the decision to pardon the prisoners without their consent and did not agree to the release of ‘arrested criminals.’ This seems to have upset President Zurabishvili, who said his decision to pardon Ugulava and Okruashvili was not a surprise to the government and agreed with Ito Bidzina Ivanishvili, Giorgi Gakharia and Archil Talakvadze. This caused another inconvenience to the Georgian Dream, as they had previously claimed that they knew nothing about the president's decision. The release of two opposition politicians has raised hopes that the March 8th agreement will finally be implemented and that better conditions will be created in Georgia for democratic elections, although many issues remain unresolved and, as it turns out, new problems may arise.
The opposition negatively assessed the legislative initiative registered by the 6 pro-government parliamentarians on May 19th, which allows that without the consent of the parliament, the government will be able to take measures on transportation, economic activity, property, collection, labor and other rights. The initiators of the bill demand its immediate adoption, while the opposition considers the possibility of carrying out the restrictions characteristic of the state of emergency according to the will of the government as a step towards authoritarianism and unconstitutional. It becomes even more dangerous ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. This issue will probably be one of the main topics next week.
The government is feeling comfortable as the opposition’s activity was limited in the state of emergency, and on May 26th the state of emergency has ended. However, this year’s June 20th, marks a year since the event, which turned out to be a somewhat turning point for the Georgian political processes. "
Source - http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/4648_may_27_2020/4648_edit.html
Pt.1
FRR gets a mention - this site was one of the first to point out the discrepancies between GOGC / FRR statements
"Demands from the West for the release of political prisoners and the full implementation of the March 8th agreement have put the Georgian Dream in a difficult position and changed its position. It was the Western pressure that proved to be an effective factor in boosting the democratization of elections in Georgia.
A few days ago, the agreement reached between the government and the opposition on March 8 seemed to be in a deadlock. Authorities categorically denied that on March 8, they had promised to release the opposition members I.Okruashvili, G. Ugulava and G. Rurua's, while the opposition claimed that it would not support the constitutional changes without the release of the prisoners. Archil Talakvadze, the Chairman of the Parliament, stated this position of the Georgian Dream on May 11th. On May 13th, the United Opposition reiterated that it would not support constitutional changes without the ‘release of political prisoners.’
The intervention of the Western mediators was still necessary, and the Georgian Dream itself provoked it when the mediating diplomats were asked to negotiate - saying that the March 8 agreement did not provide for the release of anyone. The facilitators of this agreement did not hesitate and in a joint statement issued on May 11, called on the parties to fulfill both parts of the agreement for ‘a successful implementation.’ In the May 12th statement, Senator Rish said on Twitter that he hoped Georgian political parties would fully comply with the March agreement, including the release of political prisoners and progress on the new electoral system.
The mention of ‘political prisoners’ has caused a great stir in Georgia, the opposition has been encouraged, and the government has put its desire to argue with its Western friends on the basis of misinformation. Meanwhile, on May 15th, it was announced that US Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, as well as Congressmen Jody Arrington and Marquine Malin, had sent a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin. In the letter, concerns have been raised about the Georgian government's ties with US enemies. They also accused the Georgian government of expelling American businesses and cited companies such as Frontera Resources and Conti Group as examples. In the letter, US senators and congressmen noted that “Georgia's ties with America's hostile rivals and enemies, which run counter to our geostrategic and business interests” require a serious response from the federal government.