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Phil
Just my take on things. At present I think we are still untouchable at least publicly until all the legal stuff is resolved either legally of by agreement. Again my own view but does have some support from looed (who understands his area better than I) the legal results recently may well have changed the playing field and attitudes may have changed and we are back at the table, either ways the mess has to all be cleared up before big O&G will publicly touch us. You then have to add in the Putin factor again Big O&G is perfectly capable of risk factoring this as they have made such decisions many times in past elsewhere. Add in the Georgians Gov factor re what is it able to achieve that will satisfy the west confidence ie in terms of corruption and democracy. The last key factor as I see it and in this area there are plenty of better people than I who can comment is the general nonsense of the Wests green issues with O&G - Remember that on paper the world is awash with O&G in the ground but it depends on where it is transportation, quality of product.
The above all sounds very negative and a mood of no hope is quite possible HOWEVER with a bit of thought you can join all the dots and in fact it is very possible to join them all up but it is complex unless you stand back a bit. I can assure you that if you look at the North sea before the so called bonanza, the hurdles were much bigger there was a general view back them that it was not even worth looking at after some very basic data because it was not technically possible. But all it took was some strong political leadership and look what happened!
So yes there are hurdles to jump but this is not a sprint race any more. Belive me if the demand for O&G is real for the future. we are on the right race course with the right horse and so far is jumping well at last after a bad start. The question is will the jockey stay on the horse till the winning post? well so far our jockey seems to have stuck on the saddle with industrial strength glue. Perhaps because of the glue as our secret the reon to stay on the saddle will not be revealed until after the wining post prizes! I tend to think our horse is working quite hard at present but seems up to the job. - So far!!
Just my view but I am a half full glass type of person -- Going to the pub to check they still have beer in stock
What's the likelyhood of something happening with the company now? I mean in our minds what might they do? We don't seem to be getting any communication from them and that doesn't give me confidence that they will in the near future. So at the moment apart from court cases FRR have apparently gotten back in control of the gas & oil field. So are they trying to get a deal with a SM? Or maybe gone back to Baker Hughes and discussed development of the field like before, or developing the field with an investor?
I'm just hoping that they are doing something and not just looking at long grass growing longer at the Oil & Gas field. Would be interested to hear what others may think where the state of play may be? I just get the impression at times that despite the apparent gold mine we are sat on those at the top of FRR are happy to carry on sitting and let time slip by.
Any change to the website? I can’t seem to find the link
Being ignored by them is a failsafe approach. They have no idea who any of us really are, with 1 or 2 exceptions and even then they are extremely cautious in their responses. After the damage done by the likes of ZM and the other narcissist, winnifrith I don't blame the heightened security if its aimed at protecting the assets and finding a way back to market. If that can happen it will cause some serious reputation damage to the likes of winnifrith et al, and not before time either. Scum like him and his mates feed off the insecurity of others.
Yes WHamBoy - I agree, being personally ignored is not a good reflection on them.
The West making sure Spewtins puppets are removed..??
GLA
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/moldovas-president-30-day-house-arrest-84996415
Cheers Looed. It’s not nice however being personally ignored by the company for at least 3 years. Thankfully you, Cymro and others have been able to keep me and the rest of us in the loop.
Keep at it Lifeishard. It is frustrating that the various cases don't run to a more suitable timetable, but as far as we can see the company is prevailing in court. We are lucky ZM didn't appeal, that could have added years on to the litigation.
WHamBoy - I would add that the only person who truly didn't give a **** is our now departed CEO, with the current team we at least have a fighting chance.
Thanks all for your thoughts and comments, still no response from my emails also ….but will keep trying.
Let’s hope the company has us as being part of the future like Looed says but very frustrating for us all that nothing has been told to us yet, my response in 2020 did give me hope, I will cling onto that hope still…!!!
GLA
WHamBoy - that is an active email address and its best to work on the assumption that just because they don't reply doesn't mean they don't read your messages.
I expect they think their strategy of radio silence has worked to their advantage so far. It doesn't excuse their silence, but I can see that what few updates we were getting pretty much ground to a halt when ZM got his only (and luckily symbolic) win in Texas. That happened when shareholders inadvertently gatecrashed Zoom / contacted the judge. I think that has made them extremely cautious about when and how they give out information. We haven't really had any messaging from them since they expressed their extreme displeasure about that event. Of course you can also argue that they could have warned us in advance about Zoom etc. and so prevented it from happening in the first place. Whilst they do understand there was no intent to harm the company, I do think it has made them wary on who they communicate with.
Not pleasant I know, but they are as good as saying "yes, shareholders are important, but let's be real, you are not as important in the short term as these other and more immediate concerns."
Dulwichman and Looed.
Thanks for your two good and well thought out posts. We certainly need some clarity from the company: surely they are legally obliged to talk to us shareholders. It’s all very frustrating. I have now emailed the company 5 times in the past week and have had no response whatsoever. I don’t understand why they are not able to tell us that things are still moving forwards and that we still have a chance of success. They could drop discrete hints on the website to keep us all hopeful.
Unless of course they don’t give a **** about shareholders, which up until now I just haven’t wanted to believe.
Dulwichman – I agree and hope we are both right that the recent win in Texas will encourage a rethink by all parties involved, and that extends to parties not directly involved in the Texas case (GOGC etc.)
We need to see how FRC can weaponize this decisive win in Texas to get clarity on their (our) position with the GOGC, the status of the PSA and the assignment of the asset to FRUS. The GG have previously stated that they were cooperating with the company and would respect the decisions of international courts. It would bed reassuring to see some evidence to that effect.
We know very little about the Georgian legal process other that ZM seems to be involved in a lot of hearings that we deduce are not going his way.
The failure to fix the “simple admin error” regarding the assignment in the Georgian registry remains a concern. But, we found out that the company hadn’t in fact returned the undeveloped lands despite ZM saying they had done so. The GOGC were furious that the company had breached force majeure and extracted oil. It was only after the event that FRC advised GOGC that it was ZM, not the company.
Now, with the Texas win and with Texas recognizing the assignment, with the undeveloped lands now handed back to GOGC, with lots of pats on the back from the US political machine for Georgia regarding relations, and supposing the company have an attractive financing package, then it is likely as good as its going to get as far as FRC’s chances of getting the green light to restart operations and extend the PSA.
We don’t really know what is going on with Hope. The Texas case revealed that, at the time, he didn’t have the finances for more Cayman related action. Perhaps he saw the company had outmaneuvered him and left him with an empty shell.
All parties are happy to kick the ball way down the road with regard to further litigation. If we get some clarity on the FRC – GOGC relationship, and crucially the assignment, then I would hope further litigation falls by the wayside. If anything, we might now see a combination of FRC / Hope / FTI going after ZM.
It seems these cases move at a glacial pace. The FRC interlocutory appeal to compel arbitration was launched in Feb 2021 and has only just been resolved. That said, If FRC do now have the initiative then we might see settlements in these cases sooner rather than later. Even better if the operational side of the business can now just get on and operate irrespective of these civil cases.
Earsburn. Quite agree with your concerns. Uncle Sam had money on the table long before the Ukraine issues but a lot was being held back as the Georgian gov were simply not moving forward at the agreed rate in terms of democracy and cleaning up corruption. As far as I can see the money is still on the table post Ukraine but as yet the Gov do not seemed to have moved. To be fair it may be wise for them to wait until the Ukraine matters have some clarity. It may be the case of waiting to see what and when something happens as far as Putin in power goes.
You are also correct in so far the pressure is on for Georgia to fall in line with the western powers and the people also want this but I think very few know what pressure is coming from the other way in terms of what is in the public domain.
Certainly the flow of the court cases is so far positive and the others still pending may well be advantageous in terms of timing. Looed may have a better take on my view that as we have won some court cases so far it may well be the time for some re thinking prior to any further time in court my general rule is that civil court cases are mostly a failure to negotiate and whilst each case is an individual matter to be decided on its own merit I would guess our recent wins may well cast a shadow over previous positions in future cases.
The policies and actions of the Georgian Dream government have been troubling me for a long time. Various international organisations (for press freedom, human rights, etc.) have drawn attention to Georgia's slide into authoritarianism. Of late, EU representatives have stated that the government's anti-liberal judicial and social policies are contrary to the EU's rules for membership, and that this disapproval may prevent the country's current membership application from being accepted.
This is bad news for any Western company, like FRR, wishing to invest in the country. The party is effectively owned (indeed it was founded) by a multi-billionaire oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili, with a strong Russian based financial need to counter any move towards the West. As parts of the country are already occupied by Russia, caution by the government is to be expected, but the lack of criticism of Russian aggression, and the mealy-mouthed nature of it's 'support' for Ukraine leaves liittle doubt as to where it's owner's sympathies lay.
According to the polls in Georgia, the populace is strongly pro-Western, pro-EC, pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian. Corruption as usual, however, doesn't take any notice of democratic preferences. All is certainly not lost, and the Western powers have definitely woken up to the danger in Georgia, but it's a concern of which we should be aware.
The Georgians are clearly not as stupid as that clown who runs russia and will not allow their country to be destoyed by the russians.
Maxnoby is back tsbs…! Lol
Mad,
At this risk of calling quite the opposite (because it suits our narrative), I'm in agreement - I think it's a translation issue.
GLA,
Bezzy
Possibly the translation, as the article is pushing for a move towards the West and commenting on Georgia moving in the wrong direction.
MP, not good reading in my eyes, especially the last paragraph , is it written wrong or is it me reading it wrong …??
The U.S and EU must act to move GG away from west and more to Spewtin …?????
24.05.2022 / 20:22AA
Ian Kelly and David Kramer - Putin loses in Ukraine, but wins in Georgia
Ian Kelly and David Kramer - Putin loses in Ukraine, but wins in Georgia
twitter
Putin loses in Ukraine, but wins in Georgia - this is the title of a joint article published on the American news website The Bulwark by former US Ambassador to Georgia Ian Kelly and former US Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer during the George W. Bush administration.
The article talks about Georgia going in the wrong direction and emphasizes that especially after the crisis in Ukraine, the Georgian government is becoming more and more similar to the Russian model, with full one-party rule and persecution of the opposition.
"We owe it to many Georgians who hope to join the European Union and NATO to impose travel bans and other sanctions on those who undermine hope for a future with the West," the statement said.
The authors add that the latest disturbing step on Georgia's path to authoritarianism came last week when a judge sentenced Nika Gvaramia, director of the main opposition TV station Main Channel, to more than three years in prison on politically motivated charges.
Ian Kelly and David Kramer claim that the Georgian Dream has strong control over the judiciary and law enforcement agencies. According to them, the ruling party has been campaigning against the leaders of the opposition, especially the United National Movement.
"Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili , who was arrested after returning to Georgia from Ukraine last fall, has suffered from deteriorating health and ill-treatment in prison," the authors said.
The article says that the Georgian Dream government seems to base its decisions not on whether it promotes integration with Western norms, but on whether their concrete move could offend the Kremlin dictator.
The American authors publish in the publication the failure of the Georgian Dream to carry out reforms to ensure an independent judiciary. They also note the annulment of the April 19 agreement and the cancellation of the construction of the Anaklia deep-water port.
Kelly and Kramer consider the Georgian Dream's policy towards the ongoing war in Ukraine to be the most disturbing. According to them, like Putin, the leaders of the "Georgian Dream" seem to see the war primarily as an opportunity to attack opponents.
"Why did Georgia take such a position of intimidation [against Russia], especially when three-quarters of Georgians surveyed believe that Russian aggression against Georgia is still ongoing and why [the Georgian government] is attacking Ukrainian leaders?" The authors ask.
The publication says that the United States and its European allies must act to persuade the Georgian government, and especially those behind the scenes, to make decisions and pursue policies that move Georgia further away from the West and closer to Russia.