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Thought...
How much methane do 7.7 billion humans produce on a vegan diet....?
Global warming climate change what next humans on average exhale 2 to 3 pounds of co2 each and everyday we have done since the beginning of time plants feed on co2 to create oxygen the world is always going through changes and the human race is adaptable... weve had numerous ice ages weve had the biblical great flood all down to climate change I doubt it... it's all about money taxing us to death how dare they ruin our future. In my day we used to take glass bottles back to shop and get 10p per bottle, I use to take newspapers to chippy and get a free meal for my efforts, milk was delivered on an electric vehicle and the milk was in glass bottles, we didnt have electronic devices I had to walk round to my mates and knock on door to see if he was coming out, kids today expect to be dropped off at school or get a bus I walked everywhere and just to finish off we bought sweets in brown and white paper bags called a penny mix or 1/4 of midget gems mister how dare they.. complete eco systems are dying all I say is prove it... I'm not saying we shouldn't improve the way we live we should but it smacks of ignorance when you have governments blowing countries up doing more environmental impact than anyone can imagine? When an oil company wants to drill and stimulate a well an eia is required does the government need an EIA when dropping bombs on innocents? What a world we live in... it's all about corporations wanting more and more of the resources around the world and governments taxing you to death... gla has frr been stolen from us well the clock is ticking and we'll soon find out...
The letter SN wrote to Urkaine government states we have certified reserves of 30tcf of gas and 14bl barrels of oil but dosn't say how much is recoverable. would love to know the P1, P2 and P3 of those reserves....then we can actually start to speculate on value.
until we have those figures we wont be able to estimate the value of block 12 or a possible buy out figure im afraid
I've mentioned before that gas is the immediate future, as it's less CO2 output. Thing is ultimately all this change will do nothing as methane is 30times worse than CO2 and were not going to get rid of our cows just yet. But they're trying.
Shafqut - BP needs gas as they can see that it is a major challenge to get Carbon neutral by 2040 and gas is much cleaner and lower in Carbon than coal. Also, the reduction in Nuclear greatly reduces the chances of meeting those targets. Yet Extinction Rebellion want this by 2025, which will only displace manufacturing to China and India, increase energy costs and inflation, plus it will burden the poor. Perhaps they're NIMBYS as it will increase pollution, but it will be in other countries (see OPG where the share price has dropped due to coal costs).
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/10/09/we-cannot-carpet-the-world-with-renewables-fast-enough-bp-ceo-says.html
Good video, bp want gas gas gas!
Am I right in thinking that BP only need to pay up Frontera and Georgia will still have to wait for the oil to be pulled
out the ground ?
Mick - No. The low estimates previously were 1 - 3% of the valuation when it was based upon oil in place and recoverable. Now it is based upon reserves, with a field that has wells that can be cleaned and side tracked, plus plenty of pipelines nearby. Also, costs of less than $12/bbl are very low, plus the oil is top quality. Therefore, my parameters have moved to 5 - !0% of the valuation. This is still a very good deal for BP et al, as if my production figures are right for the Eldari B of 1500bopd, then with just the four cleaned wells and T39 = 7500bopd from just 5 wells. This is $164.25m pa @ $60/bbl, and with 50 wells = $1.645bn pa and this just for the oil.
My mistake so the £1.33- £2.67 so would there be a further discount on that value due to how much work is still required to extract?
Mick - £21.04bn - £42.15bn at todays rate of $1 = £0.79, which is £1.33 - £2.67 per share (15,760,835,403 shares).
So £11 a share low estimate dont you do a conservative estimate again of 1% so 11p?
Tsbs - A buyout will mean no re-list. The longs and shorts on IG are based upon share price, therefore the shorts are paid and the longs lose (only on platforms like IG, where it is a bet on the share price). IMHO Mourant and the liquidators have been paid from production revenue, nullifying the Texas case. The ADR then becomes about how much FRR gets from SH/O, so if a deal is done with BP et al, they would get that money, not the shareholders. IMHO this is why the ADR will need to complete first.
If a buyout was going to happen it would of happened before we delisted and went to court because of funding issues. Let's see what comes must be news coming soon gla..
Oil equivalent = 19.1 billion barrels x $60/bbl (Brent is currently $60.5 and Block 12 normally sells at about a $5 premium) = $1146bn. Typical figures of 5 - 10% = $(57.3 - 114.6)bn. However, under the PSA with the 5% RA added, the GG gets 53.5% of production, reducing the valuation to 46.5% of those figures = $26.6bn - $53.3bn. While I have been conservative with the PoO, they will look at valuation with predicted future prices as extraction will be over decades. Also, there are time constraints regarding proving up the licence which can impact upon the price.
Gipps - The reserves of 14 + billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas implies that the super majors have independently verified Block 12, which greatly increases the value. The development is normally significant in any valuation, but Block 12 has 1204 wells drilled, some of which can be cleaned and side tracked, plus the WREP, BTC, SCP, TANAP and TAP pipelines run through or are nearby. Add to that the very high quality sweet crude of 41.5 API and very low costs of under $12/bbl.
What's your buyout price as a speculative guess Madpunter?
Madpunter ,
We all hope you are right. My thoughts about a complete buyout would be so little of block 12 has been developed that I doubt they would want it all unless it was at a complete bargain price .
This is looking more likely that SH and TW et al will not get to meet Zib's Mr Big. IMHO FRR have paid the liquidator's and Mourant, which will nullify SH/O's case in Texas. If this is the case then why deal with the Californian case through ADR, when FRR are free to sell Block 12 and pursue SH/O at their leisure? IMHO the super majors want FRR lock, stock and barrel (in this case barrels of oil) and both the super major's and the GG will want a deal sooner rather than later. This would also explain the no show in the Ukraine by Zaza and why no news is forthcoming about the cases. If my assumption is right, then the courts will remain schtum until the ADR process has run it's course. Furthermore, a buyout of FRR will mean that the shorter's who used IG will win and the longs with IG will lose, as there will be no re-list. Shareholders will be paid and the shares cancelled, plus they will probably get shares in the super majors (a buyout will probably be a mixture of cash and shares). IG may have already made the same assumption, hence the closure of positions at zero.