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Wow gold and silver have just started to wake up...
PB, I agree with your take on the production issues hurting this share. I hope next update will put this right. I may take another couple of quarters to properly turn the corner. Who'd have thought with PM prices where they are, Fres is at 920p
i hope the large institutions have dumped this name permabear and are now out of it. There is nothing like a change of heart from those players to get name riding higher. Fres trades c £10-11m a day in notional. It will take an age to build a position of any size and thus meaning for and major fund. My back of the fag packet calcs have net profit at a record for the current financial year assuming metals prices average 26 and 1750 for the year. The MAG JV will increase silver output in this a future years. overall this name has traded on a much more optimistic outlook in the past and will again in the future. I know not when, but i intend to be invested when it does happen.
I've said it before but continued disappointing production reports (successive lower ore grades in particular) have really spoilt the party here. Intraday price suppression aside, I think some of the longer term institutional players have repeatedly dumped this name. The last RNS (which was actually fairly neutral to be fair) saw FRES down 14% at one point, I think investors are wary of more disappointment.
Even during the Reddit-fuelled silver squeeze, FRES didn't actually move for days (whereas North American names like First Majestic were flying). FRES popped 15-20% (but closing only +10%) on the day silver hit $30 but then had lost all those gains (and then some) after a day or two.
perma .bear
It is quite baffling the dislocation between FRES and the price of silver. On any timeframe the underperformance is huge. For instance YTD Fres is down 26% but PSLV is only down 3.5% . From where i am looking this gap has to close at some point and i will continue to accumulate this name as i see it is 'cheap' I wont use leverage and am prepared to wait as long as necessary for the gap to close. IMO silver is only going north which gives me upside to the price of silver as well.
This must be the weakest correlation of FRES and PM prices I've seen. Silver back up over $26, gold holding above $1,780 and yet FRES is much closer to 900 than it is to 1000.
I have been in and out of Fres since 2013, and I can't remember any significant drops on dividend day. And I think we have closed 'up' on this day before.
SilverSpoons, it's not shorties hammering FRES down thus not visible from short interest data, it's manipulated in the options market.
this makes little sense to me. buy now get a 2% div plus the upside of gold and silver being in rising channels. Selling today is madness. can only be algo sellers.
I just saw it goes ex tomorrow so does that mean it will drop further ?
Hi all, does this go ex divi tomorrow ?
Looks like they're going to hammer this down (possibly sub-900) then hoover up towards the end of the session so they can collect the dividend...
@MaryBR, totally agree. Recent broker ratings on lse are 1000 and above, no short position visible on shorttracker.co.uk, silver prices holding around $25. With most of the FTSE so ridicously overvalued this is one of the few shares I am happy to hold at the moment.
PB, it hit a peak of 938 in decent volume first up and then got savagely taken down next 30min in very little volume. The MMs are very hard at work here that is for sure. What bodes well is that volume seems to be trending up and with gold trending up, we could be in for a good 5-6 weeks run. I like to see this break 1000p first up.
Catching the dividend is difficult with FRES movements as the daily movement can be eclipsed at the drop of a hat.
Held for dividend which drops average cost by 16p per share and will merrily keep averaging down.
I have increase my core here as in 6 moths time this will be much higher.
Intend to add today on weakness.
Although right at the tail end of yesterday's session it slid from 933 to 921, the last few minutes was pretty steep.
I don't know FRES's cum-ex dividend share price historical pattern but I suspect it will get a bit of a bounce today from PM upturn and then decline towards the end of the session in line with the dividend. Anyone else actually traded these few days before?
But the price will fall by the dividend on Thursday so you will be worse off after dealing charges.
Yes, bought back in at 924. I figure I just have to hold for a few days and I would be 17p up.
Doesn't it go ex-dividend on Thursday? There's still time...PMs touching 26 and 1773 respectively before being beaten down again is absolutely nonsensical. Even with the 10-year at 1.6%, real yields are still negative and with DXY below 91 (weaker USD), subdued gold and silver defies all known fundamentals and logic.
Nice start again for a 2nd day and then marked down. I am taking my dividend even if it drops £1 today lol.
Go on and make my day with a big drop and I will give you MMs some more of my money.