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Fres prob north of 30 quid if silver hit 50
50 would be nice and i still think it gets there too evetually. 50 in 1970 whatever would be about 450 today if you inflation adjust. even if it only got there for a day i think even FRES would struggle to be priced at less than £10.
Russians moving embassy staff out of Ukraine i saw on rt...that's a message right there even if just a shadow punch
What price Fres when the tanks roll into Ukraine ? Seen this jjump 2 quid in the blink of an eye before on the silver squeeze...seen it jump to 20 quid on the brexit vote
"jmt, what is the main reason why you think silver will hit $30?"
Jim Rogers reckons 50 because 50 is what it rallied to before and as he said markets tend to repeat the past so it will likely go there again and then set a new peak
DK - Gets jumpy around option expiry date 21st/22nd. Get people out of the money.
https://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
I think a rally to $30 will be driven on a physical supply shortage. its no secret demand from stackers , india , and family offices looking for a real asset to save in has blown higher in the last 12-18 months and i see no reason why that will slow down this year. There are large buyers via comex non delivery months at the moment which is very unusual and signify stress / a move by large players to force things higher.
The 50 and 200 dmas are close by which once overtaken will provide momentum to the upside. The rise in yields on USTs should have blown up gold and silver but it hasn't. Therefore some buying pressure if being exerted $30 is the first big target to aim for any any move higher will find tough resistance there, but it will also become self fulfilling if a serious move gets underway.
$30 for starters.
That was a tad of an overreaction by the market to my purchase of a box of Queen's Beasts.
all why has silver soared to 23.40 suddenly ?
jmt, what is the main reason why you think silver will hit $30?
Fed rates will under no circumstances hit 5%. SP500 would trade to 2,000 and Nasdaq 5,000 if they did that and the FED has become a market propping up machine NOT an inflation targeting machine. The US economy is too dependent upon financial markets and the US political system also judges its success on Market outcomes and is too self interested in rising markets.
I also think that silver will trade north of 30 at some point this year and also a chance of 50 before the end of 2023. With silver at 50 and this SP will be north of £20 however bad the management are and i would think closer to £30. Once the 10 year yield hits about 2.5% in the current FED tightening phase it will max out and reverse course as the market will correctly anticipate the next loosening cycle. Gold will also anticipate this and go on a tear. Silver will follow.
My analysis above would only change if the FED somehow gets a volcker type appointed and they get serious about inflation, but that will never happen. The US parties have found that they can buy votes with 'stimulus' checks and they will keep pushing those out to try and 'fix' the market imbalances, which is of course insane, but its where we are.
Of course there is nothing to say that the SP doesn't go to £6 first, but i remain convinced that the destination is all time highs well above £20. I have no idea about the path from here to there.
GLA
Pbear. That is a good post. Some sound reasoning behind it and I can see your concerns with yield as well as production from the company in the short term.
Production wise, we are somewhat in the dark as you mentioned, the company is very bad at communication and perennial under deliverer. Fres seems to always get hammered shortly before production results....
Yield wise, my take is slightly longer term. Right now the choppiness is all about traders trading the short term bets on when and by how much yields will rise so they sell/buy assets that get affected most by this. Gold is one of them. In the mid/longer term, the underlying story still is the hugely negative real rates. If feds will raise rates to 5% in the next year, then gold is toast. But if the rise is more like 0.25% each quarter over the next 2 years, then gold has a long way to run provided inflation stays high. It will be choppy and I will be staggered if gold doesn't hit 1900 by year end.
DXY is north of 95, not much of a 'turnaround' from 96 a month ago.
FRES might be 'undervalued' in people's fag packet calculations but that doesn't count for much today. The company continually overpromises, underdelivers and has lost the trust of some institutionals and smaller asset managers who continually offload it. Peñoles are poor communicators and clearly don't give a **** about the share price and more investors have also woken up to this.
The concerning thing is, gold is still north of $1800 and silver close to 23, another jump in yields will see both PMs hammered and FRES probably closer to 6 quid than 8.
I am also invested in MAFL. They are invested in FRES. This is what they have to say about FRES from MAFL's annual report of June 2021.
"Fresnillo Plc: Fresnillo is a £6.7B Mexican mining company listed in London (as well as on Mexican and US stock exchanges) and is the largest silver producer in the world. Fresnillo trades at 14.5x p/e and offers a 2.65% yield. We acquired our shares after an earnings disappointment and have added to our investment since 30 June 2021. The Juanicipio Mine, of which Fresnillo owns 56%, is entering into production in Q4 2021. We believe that Fresnillo is undervalued and will benefit from the completion of Juanicipio which should lead to a revaluation of its shares." Revaluation maybe on the cards.
Just a reminder that the world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's largest gold producer is trading at three month lows despite a turnaround in DXY index and a positive knock on effect to precious metal prices.