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You spoke to soon , just got hammered lol
Looking like silver will be over $30 by the time market opens on Monday 8am GMT
I did flip out and back into my SILJ I must admit.
$29.42 in silver is taken.
I was tempted and sold 20% of my positions in miners a few hours after the CPI print, but bought them back yesterday on a gold strength at approx the same prices. I could just go for vacation for the next 3 months to avoid overtrading.
The environment in which gold/silver are steadily climbing or even holding the ground, and S&P/Mag7 are crashing, would be the best for the miners - they will move up on steroids. People have learned from 2008 and 2020. Even the liquidity crisis would be good for precious metals this time.
And the VIX looks like a coiled spring on various short and longer terms charts too.
Must remember it is an election year though, so no stone will be left unturned in trying to keep the markets from collapsing prior to then.
Ready with dry powder should these sell off with the rest in such an event.
Completely recovered the Q1 sell off and more...
3 month sell off, recovered in less than 3 weeks ...
Bonker: OK, that is even more than me :)
Pokerchips: I have tried to explain/demonstrate that the whole thing is one massive ponzi scheme to a wide range of friends and family over the years. Generally steered clear of the topic with business contacts and the like, for obvious reasons.
I first became generally aware of this state of affairs back when I was a kid, having read something about it in a newspaper in the mid 1990's I think.
It was not called a ponzi scheme in the article, but it was a light bulb moment for me anyway.
Needless to say, apart from those of a similar or younger age to me, most seem to think I am either trying to see them have their pension 'stolen' from them by a future government, or that I think they do not deserve their (usually final salary, gold plated) pension, which they worked hard for etc :)
At least they have not accused me of bitterness, as many of them think of my generation, due to having been reasonably successful in business from a young age. Also not being a fan of avocado on toast has probably helped my cause :)
LWHL
The daft thing is.... pensioners are lending their Govt money, so that the said Govt can then pay them their pension, ... and on top the Govt has to pay them a 4-5% coupon to do so...
It is all crazy really
$29.26 and $29.42 to beat for silver, which were 2020 and 2021 highs respectively.
Bonker, what % physical premium over spot are you comfortable paying for silver? Or you don't care?
I have 35% of my net worth in Gold/Silver so I'm understandably bullish.
Musk buying a silver mine recently for Tesla helps though ;)
Pokerchips: At least your American friends have a certain amendment that might help protect them against any acts of tyranny....
Pokerchips and bonker: valid points and ones that I have pondered as well.
I got berated over on the MKA chat board over a year ago now I think it was, for suggesting stagflation was on its way. I still think that thesis is strong. If anything, getting stronger, IMO.
I think to a degree PM prices, and to an even greater degree, oil prices, in the short term (not long term - already mentioned my long term opinions ad nauseam) are being influenced by the geopolitical stuff more than anything.
Which would give one possible explanation for the unusual lack of current inverse correlation between the high oil price, rising USD (still cleanest shirt etc) and ATH gold and fairly high silver prices.
Having seen a few false dawns (especially silver prices), I am trying to hedge somewhat better this time than the last PM run. So would you, if your p/f had such a high percentage in PM mining stocks :)
LWHL
I had a couple of Americans over for dinner last night...and we were chatting about things .....and they said...they were really concerned that the US Govt could close down different areas ... simply because of the constant need to ask Congress for more money ...they said it was really worrying ...crazy they said ..
Gold tracked the 10-year all the way to 15% when it 20x bagged through the 1970s mate.
Gold does best when there is no chance of real growth - max employment (with people working 2-3 jobs) and a GDP going sideways, even against strong inflation, tells you we're there again.
Keep holding, keep stacking.
LWHL
Inflation and Treasury yields and Dollar strengths ...suggest that PM shouldnt be going as high as they are .....BUT ..the fact that they have ...suggests to me ..and others....there is another big worry out there ...and that worry is what is supporting the PM prices ..
The market seems concerned on the US borrowing and Budget deficit levels with big concerns that it just cannot go on ... debt repayment levels are going up,up,up and tax receipts are just not keeping pace with the spending ....
It is like they are borrowing $3 to get $1 of growth
The market as yet does not see the reasons why they are buying PM to have changed ...hence little sell off as yet
FRES was obviously oversold much below 480p so the actual Bull increase here is relatively small at this stage - IMO
The thing is, the DXY chart looks like it is going to break to the upside (IMO) which is usually bad for stocks and PM prices. Factor in the sustained high oil price at the time of print too, and that is why I have been trimming, rather than adding, to my miner positions.
Would really like this one to run a bit longer though. 8 quid or so would be lovely. Then I can reposition more sensibly here.
Certainly a buyer again if we get a big pull back in silver prices, should this scenario play out. Opinion unchanged with a long term horizon. GLA.
Just got spiked on my top up, paid 617. Doh
Yep. Silver (and other commodity prices) are not really going up. It is the value of the toilet paper currencies that is going down.
"SILVER through $29 bucks now!! "
considering how many Dollars they keep creating ...that is CHEAP .... should be $40 ....
demand is going to out strip supply ...
need to get a cocoa like run on supply shortage !!!
Possibly jurisdiction discount, those in North America would choose Mag Silver, or even Hecla.
Brits can diversify in SILG and get lower beta due to safer but pricey WPM its largest holding.
I’m here for the operational leverage of higher Silver prices in the shorter term, so am not worried about Mexican currency or politics.
Honestly surpised we not up much more. Silver $29 and gold $2400!! Any theorys to why FRES trades like such a pig?
We’re on our way.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FRES/t2FwX8rI-FRES-Strong-Buy-Swift-rerate-to-short-term-target-765p/
May trim another 1/4 at next target.
Feels like 2009, 2015 and 2020. ADT1 next, then UFO.L.
Most undervalued commodity on the planet, especially inflation adjusted, is calling BS and following Gold.