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Yes eshaitan, it seems the only certain thing re Fox is uncertainty. I bought back in because the one constant is that CG keeps on trucking. I think the business is viable but there are a huge number of variables. It's sort of a modern Wild West in Kosovo and the latest Government, supposedly reformist, may well not deliver as promised. I think Fox is definitely one of AIM's gambles. Viable - yes. successful - maybe.
I think our best hope is that we can come to some sort of arrangement that allows us to grow the business - it doesn't have to be huge compensation but say return the quarries, give us some tax breaks and a modest compensation for lost revenue that will get us back on track and I'm certain, with the new management, that CG will deliver.
As ever time will tell!
Although a lot is already known. A total of 1.4 million revenues 2019-2020 is bad especially as 1 million of that was in h1. It shows how much of an impact losing malisheve had on sales and the knock on effect of management wasting time relocating equipment and instructing legal action.
Which brings us possibly to a trading update for this year so far. Assuming the worst there may be no block sales at all this year if travel remains restricted eliminating one source of revenue.
The processing of 3rd party material might be the biggest earner for the company followed by work on their own projects. This covid situation makes it impossible to predict anything. Best case scenario fox marble smash2019-2020’s revenue this year just with the factory and with lower overheads. If that happens the business case for investing looks very strong. Of course the 3rd parties might be scaling back as well, it’s hard to say.
I have also been reading some past judgements of international arbitration cases against Kosovo, including the largest Kosovo successfully defended. The biggest risk for fox is if they lose they could be on line for costs of a couple of million.
But Kosovo seems to be struggling with their own rules, I see lute credit put in a claim as well a couple of months ago having had their business hamstrung by the kosovan central bank. Also judgements can take a couple of years from being lodged so it may be late 2021 until judgement is passed.