Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
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maybe someone has access to this website?
https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/exploration/news/1381593/beetaloo-kyalla-sidetrack-complete%C2%A0
"Falcon-Origin JV now planning next stage of big budget well"
https://www.stout.com/fr-fr/insights/article/valuation-methodologies-oil-gas-industry
another good read for guidance
https://mercercapital.com/energyvaluationinsights/how-to-value-your-ep-company/
Good educational read on valuation of E&P Companies
Hi Newtofo
I feel wary of disagreeing to anything because normally my first instinct is to press the recommend button.
I don't disagree in principle with your latest comment. I would only suggest any buyer would probably want a 'slightly' higher IRR than 10% taking all risks into account.
One of the important points overlooked sometimes on this board is that investment analysts are still attributing a high risk factor to the project ever becoming a commercial reality. If the Kyala play turns out just as big as we hope then we will start to see analysts' discount rates falling and the shares being re-rated. Until then we can only be patient.
In the meantime it's clear that gas is going to be important for the next 30-35 years and the markets with the biggest growth prospects are nearer to Beetaloo than Pensylvania in the US.There needs to be a lot more respect too for the Board's decision to appoint someone of POQ's calibre to go toe to toe with Origin and the financial community.
Geovanni, your math is fairly accurate from a total resources point of view, but just for some fun with numbers -- here is only a very small part of what a future buyer would be taking into account before making any kind of offer.
Any future buyer of Falcon's 30% will be looking first at their capital cost of recovering their share of the 85 TCF of gas from the mid-Velkerri over what is hinted at by Origin - as a 25 year life span for the Beetaloo. Then, after the commercial flow rates are fairly well established -- they would need to make a very risky forward assumptions on future gas prices to see what their net profit may look like for each of those 25 years. Any offer to Falcon would then be discounted by what is called a Net Present Value calculation -- which accountants tend to peg at 10% of that future profit stream. Any buyer of Falcon's 30% would also be required to have very deep pockets to become Origin's partner going forward. The capitol costs of infrastructure and drilling 1000's of wells will require many $billions -- but the rewards are looking better as we progress -- especially if the lower Kyalla performs as we all hope.
The discovery at the well is 6tcf just under 2 tcf to falcon.
Using a wellhead gas price of $3 for 1000 cubic feet, 25 TCF is worth $75bn. With approximately 1bn Falcon shares in issue that equals $75/share. If Falcon's permit rights were sold for 5% of this value that would be £2.9 per share.
If my maths is wrong do let me know.
Falcon's 30% share of 85TCF would be 25.5TCF so my thinking is that could possibly be where the 25TCF in the article comes from - even though it says the partners are chasing 25TCF the piece is primarily about Falcon and their interests.
25TCF in the Kyalla would be MOST welcome, of course, but I don't think anyone knows how many TCF they're "chasing" there at this moment in time.
WW
That was the entire article I posted earlier. The 25 TCF is a bit of an anomaly in comparison to previous figure of 85 TCF mentioned for the Beetaloo. Therefore I presume this lower target volume is for the kyalla
GLA
Nerves: Thanks - didn’t realize the 4 sentences Shalamar9 posted was the total “article”. Thought I might gain some insight as to where that 25Tcf gas we are chasing derived from. If that refers to the total recoverable gas on the Beetaloo then that is much less than the 85 Tcf previously assigned - if the 25 Tcf refers to the Kyalla formation then that would be a really big deal!
Wet, Shalamar9 posted the entire article from the link that schlemiel posted from the Times UK.
Shalamar9: Did the 25Tcf figure come from The Times Ireland article? I am wondering if that is potential recoverable gas that someone has assigned the Kyalla formation? Sounds awfully high at this point. Thanks
The size of the gas they are chasing is HUGE!!! Not sure how valuations work when Falcon come to think about selling out their 30% but it should be a pretty amazing uplift from the current sp!
Will only get a better idea as things move forward but this could be massive. Not trying to ramp but that amount of gas is massive. As always DYOR and all imho.
Atb,
Northern
Beetaloo win for Falcon oil
Falcon Oil and Gas and Origin Energy successfully completed drilling on a horizontal well at its Beetaloo shale gas prospect in Australia. It pulled a similar drill in December after operational challenges. It will now move to the critical fracture simulation phase. The partners are chasing a potential 25 trillion cubic feet of gas at Beetaloo.
Thanks schlemiel
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/daa-hires-trio-of-high-flyers-qmzb8g8b8
...paid for content so can't gain access but the headline is at least positive