London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
All I am saying and questioning for years and years is why, even before fracking was banned why couldn't we drilling in a f**king dessert and now we can ? Plus why and I stated this years ago how did Origin get a pass on exploration ? Origin should own nothing they never honored the contract ! No company has won a lawsuit against the NT government because they categorically said and affirmed you can still explore !! That is what Origin was granted on OUR lease ! Oh well give POQ some more cheaper options and every year they get cheaper , don't hold him accountable ,and pay him for another year of incompetence while shareholders keep losing their azses. And yes this is their first wet season !
BO: I also have my questions about beginning drilling operations this late into the season but then again Origin is the one on the ground with a pretty good idea of the challenges the wet season brings to this part of the country. They drilled the Amungee well going into the wet season. Next Origin will be dealing with how to move all the necessary fracking material/equipment onto location. I'm sure they have a plan but If things get too nasty I'm guessing they can frack in April/May of next year while drilling the Velkerri well.
All I am saying is that these guys are the professionals - this is not their first wet season. I think Falcon did us a great service choosing a company that is on the ground in Australia with a history of being a good operator. We are back to drilling this year which was important to all of us - I am eagerly anticipating the great potential Falcon has in the next 18 months - for the first time in about 3 years I am seeing progress in this investment.
The way I see shareholders losing out is by issuing more shares to fund stage 3 , or as some suggested give up some of the 30% we own. The weather delay, if severe enough would add to the cost over runs , remember for years POQ said you just can't drill during the wet season . Well here we are drilling threw the wet season. Why wasn't this done years ago ? Every one thinks Brunner diluted us , if we have to raise $20 million dollars that would add 134 million shares that would be Falcon's cost for just 2 wells. Probably everyone would still be happy to sell out early at a profit,
Interesting summary you provide this morning and I might add in my experience, despite both the negative and positive statements regarding the FOG situation, it is important to evaluate / appreciate what the share trading tells an experienced observers. We have experienced steady selling (in size, relatively speaking) now years of years. Yet, there seems to be an accumulation of shares going on. It is this accumulation which intrigues me, as do the well logs. To me, the logs plus the accumulation outweigh pretty much all the chat room noise; me included, at times. Despite being increasingly hard to say, "patience is (still) a virtue". Hang in there is my best guess.
BO: Bless your heart you wear me out.
Falcon is going to lose most of this field? Please explain how that happens.
Falcon has no way of raising money - Look how quickly POQ successfully completed the April raise?
Origin should have been made to live up to the contract. Have you seen the contract? POQ told me early on that the clock stopped running during the moratorium - PER THE CONTRACT.
Weather Delay could decrease shareholder reward. What type of weather event do you foresee that is going to decrease the asset value of the Beetaloo - should we be expecting the next great deluge?
You see no results coming in 2019. That statement might prove correct. There may be a preliminary flow test for the AGM's benefit - though possible that sounds out of character for Origin IMO.
Can we 'skate' through 2020 - I'm optimistic - It's going to be a busy but successful 2020 drilling season.
All the nervous nellies are gearing up for a spooky Halloween. We now finally get back to drilling (which some predicted would not happen this season) and instead of celebrating their wheels are beginning to fall off. There have been numerous hurdles Falcon has successfully navigated over the years - We are coming into the final stretch - now is not the time to predict doom, gloom and failure.
Curious BO - Is your general outlook on life/investing always focused on the negatives? It amazes me how you never have anything positive to say regarding Falcon but still continue to hang around - maybe for your perverse entertainment? Maybe to save myself and others from Falcon? Puzzling! If I were going to be trading stocks as you profess I think I could find a more active/liquid stock to entertain myself - technicals don't play well with these illiquid penny stocks.
I believe all the points Poods, you and myself have made show that Falcon is capable of losing most of this field or receiving very little financial reward. I like the idea of a RS because we have no way of raising money without a strong share price. I also feel that all the delays have now forced us to raise substantial amounts of money in the near future to get this field proved up. Origin as I have stated many times before, should of been required to have continued to explore as per contract ! Now with all the time lost and the cost overruns they are coming out to haunt us . Even a long weather delay , which I check periodically, could decrease all shareholders potential reward greatly. I see no results coming in 2019. Can we skate through 2020 ? JMO
Poods, you're correct. We've endured many mistakes. Many are typical of penny stocks, although some should have been avoided. Unlike you, I am NOT a proponent of reverse splits for a variety of reasons, especially in a company with little corporate experience and very little 'real' executive support. But that's an aside.
It appears to me that many knowledgeable folks on this chat board in the o&g business, who are focused on the drilling, and the potential buyers/distributors for the gas production. Since we have no control over the drilling & testing period, I have other concerns that could potentially bite us.
I doubt that many have read any of the SEDAR filings, where investors can usually find some empirical and useful info. Aren't others concerned with the high salaries relative to the work they do, the huge number of shares outstanding, the generous stock options awarded, the further dilution we might face, the board members and the advice (or lack thereof) provided by them, the turnover of financial advisors and promoters, etc???
As previously stated, I'm very concerned that the LARGE SELLER(S) has not been identified by POQ. Some days FOLGF in the U.S. trades less than 10,000 shares, while today more than 500,000 shares traded hands. Why would any group want to sell at this point, unless they had to sell. Is it Sweetpea? The Russians? Whomever they are they will continue to keep a lid on the stock price until reserves are proven.
I'll address some other concerns, when I have more time to post. As previously stated, we're just along for the ride. Hopefully, we'll eventually be rewarded for our patience.
Welcome to the chat board. Perhaps, you have read some of my insights regarding the abuses and mistakes in managing FOG. Your note this morning as you might imagine was such a breath of fresh air. Don't know really how to reach out to you and put our heads together? Anyway, you made my day and hopefully a few of those with negative views of such comments might reconsider.Thank you
Believe your right on ! If this would be the 2nd or third well I think it would be an easy call to do a quick evaluation but being the first I believe a full core and down hole logging will be conducted that is why I thought a pause where the drilling stops, to test, evaluate and study the results would happen after TD reached. Again JMO
I apologize for replying to another poster's comments, but I obviously don't know how to post with a new header.
My original comment was cut short. "Regardless of these and other concerns, Falcon shares have HUG".... should have read
HUGE upside, considering the Beetaloo potential. There are more concerns, but this is enough & all the time I have for now.
BO: Pretty much agree with a more indepth look on the Velkerri wet. Origin has lots of prior data/samples on the Kyalla and the rock structure has been thoroughly analyzed - I'm guessing a core sample but then again who knows - it's just a wild guess on my part.
The Velkerri wet will pretty much have core samples taken with through rock characteristic studies prior to pulling the trigger on a horizontal leg along with the fracking that follows. These wells are so darn expensive Origin will be cautious on making that call. The Velkerri wet is the rock that Flacon/Origin didn't want to leave unturned - they will be able to make that call with the core samples/logs, etc.
POQ estimated 30 - 45 days for the drilling (including the horizontal leg). We probably have three to four weeks of drilling left on the Kyalla - hopefully we get a heads up when the horizontal decision is made.
Newbie to this thread, but 40+ yr securities industry veteran and shareholder since FOLGF began trading. I understand the extreme frustration of the long term shareholders, who have endured the Bruner tenure, the high salaries and overly generous stock options, the Hungarian & SA failures, the Sweetpea bankruptcy, the constant delays that are always the fault of other entities and governments, moratoriums, rig location & drilling close to the wet season, anti-frackers, lack of corporate communication, etc. etc.. These are not uncommon in speculative, exploratory oil & gas companies. If it were not for the huge potential in Australia, I like many here, would have been gone long ago.
This site was recommended by POQ awhile ago, so I've read some of the commentary. I've read some very astute & detailed comments here. I might overlook some of Falcon's shortcomings, but I have other concerns that I haven't seen addressed.
POQ should know his largest shareholders, including their intentions re Falcon and how their involvement might affect regular shareholders: who is selling, and the # of shares to be sold. A good CEO & BOD should have lined up or at least introduced buyers at a slight premium, allowing the stock trade without additional impediment.
Who would want to sell shares, just prior to the best news ever reported?
Lamesa Holdings S.A./Renova Assets 157,083,634
BURLINGAME ASSET MANAGEMENT 125,231,739 13.46
SWEETPEA PETROLEUM 80,625,170 8.67
PERSISTENCY PRIVATE EQUITY / SWISS ENERGY PARTNERS 59,304,484 6.38
NICOLAS MATHYS 50,551,600 5.43
I appreciate having deep pockets involved in securities I own, but I'm also concerned about their history & involvement. Is it possible the large blocks of Falcon overhanging the markets are the result of increased U.S. sanctions on the richest oligarchs close to Putin? Renova (Victor Vekselberg), Gazprom and Lamesa have been reported to be among the Russians getting rid of U.S. assets.
I'm concerned about the large shareholders and their intentions. Considering the size of their holdings, the total number of shares held by everyone on this thread won't override any decision they make. Hopefully, they are all anticipating a huge return like all of us. We're just along for the ride!
- Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom
Gazprom is a large Russian company founded in 1989, which carries on the business of extraction, production, transport, and sale of natural gas. The company is majority owned by the Government of Russia, via the Federal Agency for State Property Management and Rosneftegaz. Gazprom is the world’s largest oil producer, with producing oil through the largest natural gas field in the world.
I originally thought Sweetpea was the seller overhanging Falcon, but recent info offers an alternative explanation. https://en.crimerussia.com/oligarchs/russian-oligarchs-sell-their-us-assets-fearing-new-sanctions/
Regardless of these and other concerns, Falcon shares have HUG
i wont miss bo come jan 1
You can analyze on the fly and do a lot of logging and it works great on wells redrilled in the same field after more comprehensive logging has already been done on the field, but I'm guessing that they will do a full core sample of the formation, instead of side wall or off of mud samples. This process takes more time but you get better results and the next wells you can then make educated guesses, but for this the first well they probably won't gamble and want best info. JMO
Ams2erdamDan: I suspect you are correct with analyzing the core on the fly. Origin has already looked at depth into their other data samples in the Kyalla. I suspect that as long as there are no surprises with the core/cutting sample then they will look at the formation thickness and work out the landing point for the horizontal section. I don't see why they wouldn't have the required lab equipment on site to do the proper analysis. Hopefully POQ will give us a heads up when the horizontal leg is begun.
Along these same lines, the core sample to be taken out of the Velkerri wet gas will probably be given a closer look into all that stuff I never learned in geology! The Velkerri wet is more of an unknown and IMO there is a more likely chance pulling the plug if the core sample doesn't contain the rock characteristics expected.
In my experience in drilling horizontal and vertical wells is that you analyze the "core" on the fly, at the location with the geologist being onsite. The drilling tailings rise to the top and are separated from the fluid with a centrifuge and analyzed immediately. If you know the flow rates of your drilling fluid and TVD etc you can time exactly what tailings represent what part of the formation and depth....
Obviously I'm not sure if this is how this specific operation will work.
You figure it out. I'm through trying to educate a pompous fool.
Ok since you were totally wrong about drilling ,how long to analyze core ? If that's so simple .
It's simple. They will send the core off for analysis and make a decision based on the results. And yes, you don't know much about drilling.
I believe it has been stated that total depth will reveal quite a bit of information and even if we will drill horizontally . The well will determine by measuring hydro carbon maturity, saturation and reservoir quality. Additionally it will give us more detail on areal distribution and ability of liquids to flow threw formation. TD will be disclosed to public when reached quoting POQ. It has been 11 days and some suggested we could reach TD in 7 days , which was and is total fantasy . Should be only 3 more weeks , give or take : then I believe a pause to determine if it would be prudent to do the 1000 meter horizonal drilling. This decision to drill or not is crucial to any investor, and a no drill decision would be detrimental to the stock price while a drill decision will just mean lets wait and see with no price increase. JMO