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This stock was at $.35 2 years ago, now at $.15. There needs to be movement on this stock before 2022! Leak it, market it, whatever. Get the word out. I can be much more patient with this stock at $.50-$1 then at $.15.
BO: Here is today's article in the Katherine Times regarding the wet season:
Nice Downpour for Katherine and a Cyclone might come calling Chris McLennanChris McLennan
Finally a nice drop of rain for Katherine and look out - a tropical cyclone may be heading our way too. Katherine has recorded more than 10mm from a downpour of rain this morning although it is still early to calculate the total falls from the storm. Many gutters and drains overflowed as the town suffers one of its wet seasons on record. But some weather experts are saying a tropical cyclone could develop over the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend and may track across the Top End, then as a tropical low, just south of Katherine. Most weather websites predict the path of the low is heading Katherine's way early next week but it is a logn way out and there are no warnings yet from the Bureau of Meteorology. The bureau says a monsoon trough is developing over the Territory's Top End and northern Queensland during the second half of this week. "As this monsoon trough deepens towards the end of the week, a number of forecast models suggest that a low pressure system will develop over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Conditions over the Gulf will become favourable for this low pressure system to deepen into a tropical cyclone on the weekend," the bureau says. A further update will be issued this afternoon. If It will only be the fourth cyclone of the season and is set to be called Esther.
Newtofo: Agree - this 2 well a year drilling program is painfully slow. Origin needs to step up their game to even come close the timeline of the original farmout agreement - even allowing for the moratorium. I suspect when push comes to shove Falcon will work with Origin as long as best attempts are being made to meet the performance clause - not much else they can do at this point - IMO that is somehow allowed in the original farmout agreement.
OrsonModesto mentioned that Origin has work program commitments for EP117 - Should that be for EP76 ?- now that the Kyalla 117 well is being drilled I would assume that takes care of any commitments for that permitted area? If Falcon/Origin could potentially be forced to forfeit rights to EP76 one would think that the second stage 2 well would certainly be drilled this year but hat's above my paygrade.
If forfeiture is a possibility then I don't see how Origin goes directly to the commercial offsets of the Kyalla as some say was mentioned at the AGM. At one time Origin was pretty high on the Velkerri wet test - would they chance giving it up - if the Kyalla came in really strong - that would be a tough call.
In the meantime I look forward to the current Kyalla well - that could certainly lift some spirits around here!
With the Kyalla 117 well now at over 4 months since drilling started on October 9th, and at least another almost two months left before fracking is complete -- this has become a ridiculous "two well a year" exploration program. Therefore, it is very doubtful that Origin will get started on any part of their stage 3 commitments in 2020 unless another rig is booked, of which there has been no indication thereof.
We are now looking at the end of 2020 for the second well in stage 2 and the end of 2021 before there is any clear commercialization numbers from the stage 3 two well exploration program. This incredibly slow schedule of work -- now realistically shifts everything out another whole year until early 2022 -- before we are likely to see any serious offers to purchase Falcon's 30% -- which will be almost 6 FULL years since the Amungee well became a so called "Discovery".
The Hayfield station owner (where they are drilling the Kyalla) has posted comments online that they have had about 4 inches of rain in the last couple of weeks. I don't know if this would prevent them from moving the rig. Looking at the access road they would have to use, they would have some creek crossings/low-lying areas to contend with. But either way, if they don't drill the velkerri wet gas well this year, they are going to be hard pressed to drill a different well this year at the current pace. Of course, we have no idea what the current terms of the farm-out are, so who knows what kind of schedule Origin is being held to. I also think they have work commitments for EP 117 they have to satisfy or they will have to give up additional acreage.
BO: Have you looked at the historical rain data? From initial reports the rainy season got off to an unusually late start with lighter rainfall than the norm. I have not researched this but the “rain gods” may be looking kindly upon us this year which would be very positive for this drilling season.
Around Daly Waters rainfall in the last 3 months has been a total of 2 mm and at most 10 mm . I think the rig can move if they want to move it. I've never believed work needed to be halted in the desert, and they are proving it. This is according to the Bureau of Meteorology .
SandyD: Someone at the AGM mentioned that if the Kyalla flow rates look really promising then Falcon/Origin would possible forgo the Velkerri wet well. If that is the case then there should be sufficient funds for the final two full blown horizontal wells without any further dilution. Also with the wet conditions the Ensign rig will remain on the Kyalla location and the final two wells would begin in short order. Lots of ifs, ands, and buts - in the next couple of months we should have an answer to how this will play out.
I’m of the opinion that if the Kyalla proves to be successful, additional funding needs, if needed, can be handled without further stock dilution. I feel there may be a Hedge Fund or 2 that may be willing to provide funding through priority debt with a nice reward at payback. Just a thought. It’s a nice matter to deal with If Kyalla flow rates are good.