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Wow, my autocorrect chose some interesting words there instead of what I thought I was typing!
Big companies buy when the first move is made. They would be buying with risk attached, but this is always the case. How much more with the next wells derisk it? Perhaps enough to get a decent price. For me it looks like the rise is enough to cover current plans, but not much more, so I can only assume the sale will hit soon after.
What this raise and ORRI does do is protect us from being squashed out of the game financially during the upcoming wells and pilot. This is why this raise was done now. In this game when you allow your piggyback to get too low the other companies watch you die slowly and get your stuff cheap. For me this is about defending Falcon's ability to exist. For me I'm happy with this raise for giving away very little when you work out the percentages. Its quite something that they are holding out for 22.5% in the remaining area. I wonder if they are leaving that out of it for now if they a worried they Tambo won't last the full game.
Frack me. Thanks for responding. I am referring to the 130+M shares they say they can issue. (And companies tend to issue as much as they can) Yes. The cash amount is very small but 130M shares is more than 10pct of the co. That pie in the sky $1/share number some have been dreaming about is now only $.90/share more or less.
I understand you feel we will have "proven" the ground after the next two wells but will any real buyer? That was supposed to happen w the last well. What is someone buying? 5pct of these wells? The future wells which may be years down the line? That's assuming Tam can raise enough money to go forward. Or will BS take another huge piece of Tam? Is he currently slowly buying Falcon? What is to stop BS from taking FOG private? Us? Just so many questions and I'd like to see some alternatives here from those that still feel this is a 6-7 bagger. Frankly I'd take a double and feel lucky.
Longknife not sure your maths is correct there. 3.6 million pounds at a 6p price is 60m shares or about 6% of the free float. It's defo a small raise. Not worth raising any less, probably the smallest raise that could be done to be fair. If you are saying it's not a great time to raise that's another point.
I'd say we'll be sold by then because we'll have proved 2 3km wells (hopefully) and a heap of the directors options expire early the next year
Hey Marsh -- my heart attack was yesterday morning when I read the press release -- but starting to feel a tiny a bit better today after digesting this latest bit of bad news on our wounded bird -- sheesh. A bit surprised that Falcon hasn't dropped even further on the TSX -- just so you can get your stink bid filled -- LOL.
There were two disappointments with this latest press release -- with the 6P price on the extra 133 million share dilution being only slightly worse than having to give Sheffield (and most likely Liberty) another almost 2% ORRI over all of Falcon's three permits. The 6% ORRI over the 51,000 acre block surrounding the new SSH2/SSH3 wells was not too disappointing -- as we have already dropped down to only a 5% interest in that block anyway -- so selling BS that 6% ORRI interest for the extra cash infusion seemed to make good sense. However, the extra almost 2% over all the remaining four million acres was a bit more disappointing, but as Frackme clearly stated -- the gas has to flow in very large volumes before BS (and now to a very small degree -- Liberty, I think) will ever see any true benefit for their addition of $millions in new Falcon operating funds.
The 6P price was a much bigger shock -- especially given the stellar flow rates on the 30 day, 60 day, and next Friday the 90 day flows!! It is almost impossible to imagine what the punters that bought into the 25P funding 10 years ago think about this price point of 6P???
The only good news that I can see, (after my heart attack medicine finally kicked in :-) -- is that Falcon is now funded right through the next two full length horizontals, including the 300 sq. km of seismic, and all ancillary costs. While a private placement at 8P would have felt better -- the difference is only about an extra 33 million shares added to the total float or approximately a 3% increase -- which is disappointing but maybe necessary to get the deal done.
Now that Falcon is funded through the next two 3km horizontals -- my only real concern through to next year -- is when do we finally hear from Tamboran about their US listing and their critically important funding raise to cover Tambo's 47.5% of the next two very expensive 3km horizontals -- (along with all the seismic and ancillary costs)??
P.S. -- if anyone thinks that Falcon's dilution of 133 million shares was extreme -- just wait to see how many billions of Tambo shares are out there when their next funding is complete!!!
No result of the book build by 5pm Friday .
Newtofo must have had a heart attack ... I haven't read anything from him lately.
Hope your well, fella!
Frack me,
A few points respectfully.
I wouldn't call this a "small raise". Cash wise yes, but up to 130M shares is major dilution.
Also, what makes you think a sale before the end of 2025? Thank you.
Just thinking about it and a few things jump out at me.
Why did Falcon jump the gun on the RNS? I understand the gov having to sign off on it but the legal agreement hasn't been agreed yet?
Then thinking about the idea of giving away royalties is interesting too. It's usually a bad move as you are giving away the real future value at current depressed valuations. Would we have been better off at 0% participation for these 50k acres rather having to give away 2% royalties on the total block. The other side of that coin is that when someone has royalties the value of those royalties is only unlocked when it's producing so ironically the more Royalties someone like Sheffield has will make it more important that falcon is in a position to be producing which will only really happen in a sale. I just hope we don't lose our shirts in any sale. There's the small raise now I'd say we'll have a sale before the end of 2025. Good luck all
Greenlanteren64.....do you enjoy being such an ass? In all my years investing and being on chat boards, I don't believe I have seen anyone so nasty, negative, and someone with so little class. Either you are in or out. Either you provide something positive to our conversation, or get lost. Many of us question this move, but have the respect for others and are willing to dig deeper for answers. I am going to say what I have said all along. The asset hasn't changed, and the end result is all that matters. We have no end result. Have you spoken one on one with POQ? I doubt it. Have you insight on a buyout price for Falcon? I doubt it. Have you anything of true value to add to this investment? I doubt it. Please.......produce fact that backs up your opinion. Not BS.....but facts, real data, inside information to support your arrogance. Without it, you are just really a jerk. Nobody really likes a jerk. Try better man............
Well, what a surprise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Exactly what they did before, I hate to say I told you so, BUT I TOLD YOU SO MORE THAN ONCE and you all laughed. This stock isn't even tradeable anymore, way too risky and too many falsehoods pushed by management! POQ $600,000/yr and counting $200,000 grand for batgirl. What a sham, scam whatever you want to call it.
Very disappointed to read today's RNS, hard to find the positives of this raise and the timing.
Cont.
- Are we to believe stating that current board members plan to invest in the offering is in any significant way a benefit? Their track record does not support that belief. How much cash have they ever put in?
- What changed since Falcon's dilution last month, requiring further dilution? Weren't the same needs known at that time?
- What has Cenkos accomplished for Falcon, even before the merger of Cenkos Securities and FinnCap, rebranded as Cavendish? They'll likely make more in fees than existing, LT shareholders with this private funding.
- AIM appears to make the pink sheets in the US and hot Vancouver trading look like the NYSE.
- If things don't work out soon, legal expenses could become large. I sure hope Directors & Officers insurance is in place.
- There have been some seemingly knowledgeable investors on this thread who have made emotional investments in Falcon, rather than reasonable, fundamental investments, including me. I feel for those who continue to add still larger stakes. Fortunately I've remained disciplined and have not added to this continually, speculative stock.
- There are also at least a few defenders of POQ and his minions, who have recently become silent. The 12 month high of $0.16 now looks like a pipe dream, despite the huge Beetaloo potential and having Brian Sheffield interested, but at what price? As previously reminded Sheffield is looking out for Sheffield. You're mistaken if you believe he cares about Falcon shareholders.
- To date, most of us LT shareholders are underwater and remain bagholders. I think Sanydune makes valid points with his reminder to ignore this board.
- Hopefully the next news from Falcon will be about the successful test completion. Good luck to all.
Good advice Sandydune, but having said that I need to vent.
In the late 70s or early 80s there was an infamous stock prognosticator (really a great actor selling stock a tip newsletter) named Joe Granville. He'd likely call all of us Falcon shareholders 'bagholders'.
When alerted to Falcon news today I thought I was going to read a positive statement concerning the 3000 m results. WOW was I Wrong!!!
- Following my normal investment criteria I never should have put any money into Falcon, but was introduced, visited and met a seemingly 'real team' of O&G staff, including geologists, attorneys, accounting staff, marketing staff, et al in the Denver office. Huge potential in Hungary, SA and then Beetaloo, so bought some shares. Now there is POQ, Anne and buddies of them seemingly hanging on for their salaries and providing little credibility. Bd member Smith has been there since the beginning and is probably awaiting his eventual payday. Nally and Layman were supposed to add professional acumen. All receive options, but have not added any value to shareholders. Which of these folks actually have their own skin in the game?
- I might have missed it, but I have never seen a company begin a news release with:
THIS ANNOUNCEMENT (INCLUDING THE APPENDIX) AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS
RESTRICTED AND IS NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY, BY ANY MEANS OR MEDIA, IN OR INTO OR FROM THE UNITED STATES, AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, JAPAN OR THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA, OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION IN WHICH RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION WOULD BE UNLAWFUL.
- What happened to the long term institutional holders like Burlingame, Renova, Persistency, Mathys, et al?
This has been painful to endure over the past 18 years! Today's news was very disappointing to say the least. My advice to all of us who have been in this for such a long time is to; exit the message board, stop following the stock movement and forget it's in our portfolios, recognize the substantial risk associated with such an investment before doing it again, and finally hope that POQ and the board will do everything possible to create value and figure out a way to monetize it so we each get an unexpected surprise in 24-36 months. For me, this is the healthiest way to deal with this experience. All the best to each of you.
... and when the flare is strong and shows no respecively small decline
FOG sells share for the lowest price of 6 pence
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84101&lng=133.65144&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-04-17T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-04-17T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
It feels like it's Opposite Day with these guys. Initially, we said we'd never go to production - we'd sell it long before then. But now, we're moving ahead with production. We were told we wouldn't need to raise money until we actually did. We're in talks with Origin, but it ends up being sold right under our noses.
I thought we were reducing our interest in the pilot to 5% to avoid dillution but then we did it anyways ? Is there a point where we are able to hold the board accountable for tanking the SP or are we not there yet ?
RNS book build placing lucky my buy order yesterday failed at 7p.
And days before.
1pm dropped to 6.7p after 7.8p open .
Did not repeat order this morning .
Either that or sell.
Disappointing for long term holders particularly, now we're getting to the business end of things.
The big money want a piece of the pie for sure, but only at silly prices.
I'm just going to ride it out as it's a far more viable proposition now than when I originally bought in more than a decade ago. I'm having to re-imagine £1+ per share for surr. Bugger!
The NR tells us that Tennyson Securities have been effectively asked to stand down after little more than six months in post. They were unable to deliver. It's a statement too by the Board that outside the US there's no appetite for projects like the Beetaloo.
BS and his partner have given the Board sufficient money and time to sort out its exit in an orderly way and I expect there will be a lot more focus in the next 12 months or so on bringing on board private equity and/or family funds who are based in the US, and are more credible partners than the 3 minnows to Daley Waters. Meanwhile It's very easy to judge who is going to come out on top in terms of the Beetaloo. in the next couple of years. The Falcon board with its emphasis on an an exit will win hands down over TBN .
Meanwhile it's very nice that our close friends/partners will give us so much cash for an ORRI in the 51,000 acres in the pilot project. It bodes well too that they are willing to step forward to acquire shares before the 90 day result on the SS1 well is announced next week.
Hopefully I can meet some of you again at the AGM in June.
If only 1 person, and a very smart person at that, wants to buy something, they won’t pay top dollar. This will sell at a pittance. It was a long shot all along….it’s over…..
It all boils down to the next two 3000km wells. If they prove out BS will try and buy out/merge before any other suitors are involved -- but if other suitors are sniffing around it may go much higher. My guess is no one is offering at this time other than BS and after the next two wells -- we will see more. Anyone have an update of how much BS owns from all three companies now?
And this is just for the costs related to the next two wells and related costs in 2024.
When we dropped on the announcement of the “stellar” results, I started to really question if there’s going to be a positive ending. I felt it was possible the market didn’t like the 500m horizontal results being extrapolated to 3000m. Still, thought we’d be higher. We ran up significantly 8 years ago on the back of lesser results and the impending stop work of the Pepper Inquiry and real risk the development would be stopped. As such, I don’t know why we are here, but it would appear the headwinds of environmental, government regulation and location are having an impact on valuation. The only thing that gives me comfort is the entrance of Brian Sheffield. That is likely a mixed blessing in that if he sees value, he’ll work hard to get it as cheap as possible and unless we have another interested party, likely will.