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with over 875,000 shares
markets down big time on tsx but price is up .015 someone must know something here about this stock
Thanks all for the info. I also like "• PLT test results suggest a normalised gas flow rate equivalent of between 5.2 - 5.8 MMscf/d per 1,000m of horizontal section significantly improving the prospectivity of the Velkerri dry gas play" on slide 12. It takes numerosu wells in any play to dial in the rihgt frac design. This is an impressive estimated flow rate (15,000 MMcfd+ per 3,000m) at this stage. I would expect that we will end up with flow rates similar to what we have seen in the Marcellus and Utica, which is what we need to bring more cpaital into this play.
To me the most telling bullet point is this:
Multiple upcoming news events to de-risk the play and drive it beyond appraisal •
The ending phrase of "drive it beyond appraisal" is most telling and valuable, especially since coming directly from the horses mouth.....The big question to this is the timeline........2022 or 2023??
Thanks Rich,
To help cover the costs of a gas processing plant for Santos -- here is an update on their most recent quarter where Santos sold their last 11 LNG cargos at an astronomical price of $29 US per mmbtu. This is a massively profitable price point for LNG and bodes well for Beetaloo's future gas sales -- whether that is sold domestically or offshore. This would also seem to indicate that Inpex will be rolling in cash in the next 18 months -- just in time to make us an offer -- LOL.
Strong LNG prices drive 4Q21 revenues 5%?ahead of UBS estimates: UBS and Tom Allen in the 2022 All-Asia Research Team.
Overall a positive Dec quarter result for STO with DQ21 revenue 5%?ahead of UBS estimates, largely due to stronger realised LNG prices from?Darwin LNG (DLNG), which sold all 11 of its cargoes in DQ21 at spot JKM, averaging $29/mmbtu (vs UBSe $25/mmbtu). STO remains our most preferred Australian Energy exposure. It is trading with lowest implied oil price $56/bbl vs WPL?at $63/bbl and our latest research assessing whether decarbonisation is priced in to energy companies identifies STO as the most mispriced Energy stock across APAC, based on actual changes to fundamental earnings drivers. With numerous near-term catalysts providing a pathway to deleverage and improve shareholder returns, we expect STO to continue to re-rate in 2022.
Strong headline revenue a big beat to UBS estimates and consensus:
WPL delivered a strong DQ21 update, with revenue ($2.9bn) materially ahead of UBSe and consensus ($2bn). This was primarily due to strong realised LNG prices ($16/mmbtu vs UBSe $12/mmbtu) with WPL taking advantage spot JKM LNG prices averaging $29/mmbtu over the qtr to lift third party sales volumes from its trading division. While the revenue beat over the qtr is material, we're mindful the trading business costs (not reported quarterly) are materially higher (+$250-350m vs prior guidance) and trading will remain a low margin business (<5%). WPL also provided 2022 prod'n guidance (92-98Mboe) 4% ahead of UBSe (at the midpoint), largely from higher domestic gas sales. The strong LNG prices also saw WPL?reverse the impairment on its Corpus Christi contract.? While the reversal is non cash, investors should expect higher 2H21 DPS as WPL dividend policy is to pay out >50% of underlying NPAT.
NT, not NY
NY - agree with your analyses. The other real pricey facility for the rich gas will be a gas processing plant to remove the NGL so the gas will meet residue pipeline specs. A 200 MMcfd plant int he U.S. would cost between USD $75 MM to $125 deppending on the type of plant (e.g., refrigeration or cryo) and what type of NGL recoveries are desired. Of course, the NGL will be sold, which will obviusouly help on the revenue side of the equation.
Thanks Mr Newtofo for drawing attention to the revised company presentation on the Falcon website. The team are now clearly warming to the task. The second, third and fourth bullet points on Slide 23 in particular caught my eye.
No doubt the 30 day reading at EP161 at the end of this month will continue to be eagerly awaited.
nt
Top notch mate.
I did see that Santos had decided not to drill any explo wells in 2022 which the Green zealos greeted with undisguised glee but like you say Santos have their reasons for this decision and like you I did think it could be a bullish decision. Unlike you I simply do not have the necessary knowledge and apprecation of such matters to explain why this may be so
thanks
"Some interesting thoughts for everyone to consider for Santos E&P plans going into 2023".
Last summer the Tambo press releases referenced the possibility of Santos drilling two more exploration wells at the Inacumba site -- which is located on the south east corner of the Tanumbirin Station lands. However, there has been no further references to these two Inacumba wells since the Fall. Now Santos has made an agreement with the Italian Tile Mfg. not to do any work on his cow pasture until December of 2022 at the earliest -- which in reality probably indicates spring of 2023.
Here is a fun thought for everyone to consider as we wait for the Santos flow results to be announced in the next week or two. What if Santos is waiting to see what the 30, 60 and 90 day flow tests indicate before future development plans are finalized? What if those plans are to NOT DO ANY FURTHER EXPENSIVE EXPLORATION WELLS -- to determine the width and breadth of the mid-velkerri B shale prospectivity across Tanumbirini Station.
What if Santos is waiting for the final 90 day flow tests to indicate both the commerciality of the current two wells, and what the longer term decline rate may indicate for future total recovery rates from the mid-velkerri B shale across permit EP 161. If both the flow rates are high enough and the decline rate is low enough (after Santos does their analysis next Spring) -- why spend a bundle to do a few more expensive short exploration wells at the Inacumba site -- that have no future cash flow potential -- but rather just confirm what they probably already know about the lateral extent of the B Shale across EP 161?
Santos already has a very significant amount of data to date that most likely gives them a vast amount of clarity on what the B shale looks like ALL across permit #161 -- from both seismic, DFIT tests, and actual horizontal fracking results. Therefore, there is a possible scenario whereby if the flow rates and decline rates look strongly commercial this coming spring -- that Santos may decide to NOT spend another $50 million or so on two more Inacumba explorations wells, but rather goes to their Board of Directors for approval to move into what is called "PILOT" production in 2023???
If all the data this spring confirms that EP 161 is commercial -- then maybe Santos goes to their BOD to get the necessary approval to spend two or three times that $50 million for actual shale gas production. This would have to include the additional costs for gathering lines, a pumping station, and booking space on the existing and future pipelines to send that gas to their own LNG terminal in Darwin -- creating cash flow for the very first time in the Beetaloo Basin.
PS -- there is a slightly newer version of the Falcon Presentation available on the Falcon website for any that haven't seen it as yet.