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Time for responsible necks to hang
I will sign petition in a heartbeat. This stock has been corrupt for 15 years.
If folks are seriously upset at this dismal share price then please respond to my post and we can look to form the petition which can be delivered to IIROC by an MP for strong reinforcing
It may be time for us long time shareholders to petition IIROC to investigate the possible manipulation of the share price. This is likely a “poop and scoop” operation whereby the share price is surpressed for the benefit of others to accumulate at low prices with the knowledge that it’s going much higher. Sure think that the stock should be well above the 52 pence target of Davy
Perth: Why is it that I never see those typos/error until I hit the 'Post Message' button - then they jump out at me? I have a bad habit of not reviewing my post thoroughly. Yes you are correct - the dollar sign was in error. I sure wish Lse would give the poster a chance to edit - in my case that would prove helpful!
I assuming the seller of the Sweet-PH holding is the receiver?
I am going with the 6.28% that is listed in the latest financials and in the latest presentation. Yes, 18M is the shares total WW was referring to.
I still go off 6.28% and think that number is actually lower now. Just a guess though.
WW. In your post today/yesterday you refer to $60 million and $18 million. I presume that the $ sign is an error and that you are referring to share quantities and not to dollar values.
Could some current shareholder get their broker or financial adviser to approach the holder of the Sweetpea/Petrohunter shares with a view to clarifying the size of their holding and what their current and long term intentions are for their holdings ?
I’m good Night - just struggling with you superior intellect. You remind me of a guy I once knew on this board - Hmmm! He was the self avowed smartest individual on the board - know him?
Hang in there?? I’m the one sitting back fat and happy - you are the one fretting about the s/p. Chill my friend - all is well.
WW, I can tell that my post was too intellectual for you. With apologies.
Drilling is finally occuring while the SP sits at 52-week low. Sock market at a record. Origin stock performing well. This is way more poignant than "day to day stock action". Something is fundamentally wrong.
Hang in there WW.
Only another 350 million shares ? Easy , maybe I don't even want to think about it.
Hey Night - Whatever you think - sounds like you have it all figured out. I'll repeat myself - I don't give a friggin rat's ass what the day to day price action is on this penny stock - I'm in it for dollars at the end of the project - I'll leave the day to day price 'action' of Falcon with you - good luck.
Curious - what's your take on last April's capital raise. IMO it was pretty much a non-event. Once Falcon gets the next well or two drilled then stage3 will target the shale with the most commercial potential. If Origin is looking to prove up a decent play but still needs a few more dollars to finish completion of the second stage3 well then IMO that raise will be another non-event. To think that another potential small raise is keeping this stock suppressed is you in search of answer.
IMO the stock is being suppressed by Sweetpea. What was once $60+million shares FOG is at last count about $18 million. The seller is patiently selling into the market without driving the stock price down. From what I was told the seller was never interested Sweetpea's (Petrohuntner) FOG stock but rather the acreage positions they acquired - they needs the cash from the stock sales for some reason I don't understand. IMO Falcon needs a new fresh stock ledger of buyers - the majority of current holders have been in for too long and like myself already have too many shares.
If the NT Government or Federal Government in Australia had any foresight then they would pick up these cheap share. This play is the crown jewel of Australia. Every Australian should own shares. The Government of Australia should have this in a wealth fund. similar to the Alberta Heritage Trust Fund or Norway's $1Trillion Oil Fund or Saudi Aramco.
Simple solution then, theknight.
Find an investor willing to put up $20mn. Half for a placing, and the other half to take out Sweetpea.
If life was so easy....
All_
Our problem is not the quality of our prospect; rather, it is the lack of credibility created by our management over the last number of years. There is an easy solution, but you do not want to hear it. Poods
WW: try to focus. Hopefully the following isn't too intellectual for you: It's not that "people need to have something to worry about". Rather, in search for explanations of Falcon's relentlessly weak share price, a looming capital raise emerges as one possible explanation.
Suppose CEO finds an investor interesting in punting $10mil. Does CEO match the buyer with Sweatpea (bullish for SP)? Or does CEO issue new stock to sell to investor at a discount, further diluting? There's your potential rationale for Falcon's inability to rise.
Schlemiel : My sentiments exactly. Some people have to have something to worry about. Falcons n can easily meet any additional raise. If they need $50 million for another year of participation that wouldn’t be an issue IMO!
Why is there such concern over a placing? FOG holds 30% of what some consider to be one of the last great shale assets in Australia and no doubt across the western world. Raising a necessary amount of capital on the back of that should be a walk in the park. It maybe a raise with a slight discount to current prices but consider the upside in terms of the valuation derived from continued drilling and appraisal (assuming results are accretive)
A decision not to raise further funds flags the decision to liquidate FOG's 30% at Beetaloo
BO: The multi-year moratorium is now behind Falcon and the new fracking regs are known. I suspect Origin has given Falcon an update to estimated drilling cost for the next few wells as evidenced in the article link you provided. I have always contended that the nearly 3 year moratorium and the new expensive regs are what caused the inflated AFE cost of the Kyalla well - IMO funds will be tight and another possible raise could show up next year but its not going to be of any major concern. If Falcon needs a few extra dollars to complete the second stage3 well the money will be easily raised. Hopefully by that time Falcon has much more to show for their efforts.
The thing that has potential negative consequences: the cost overruns when I ran them on Amungee were substancial . Can't remember exact numbers now ,might be able to retrace my steps but I believe it was over 68% higher. Hopefully they have a better grasp on cost now and we won't see anything near that number; if we do that 13 million is shot . Not being negative; I'm still accumulating shares but the risks are still out there . GLTA
BO: Thanks for clarifying. So Falcon has $13 million in the bank with a $2 million/yr burn rate and $5.5 million estimated capped carry exposure for stage2/stage3. Then we add another bit for the ORI option purchase ($?) - sorry but too lazy to look up tonight. Also looking at some cost for an appraisal report. Looks to be tight on cash - maybe the Kayalla comes in gangbusters and the Velkerri wet is cancelled freeing up that cost. If the Kyalla looks positive any additional raise will be as quick and simple as the last - if not IMO a raise still gets done easily with any success in stage 2/stage3 wells. Interesting times ahead.
Thanks for the reference. I had missed that.
If you read Proactive Investors article from Tuesday the last paragraph states Falcon share would be 5.5 million plus contingencies.
They are not carried, it has a cap that will be exceeded soon. Next phase will most likely run 5.5 million without over runs.
BO: Sorry - don’t understand your possible raise comment. If Falcon has 13 million and an annual burn rate of 2 million and is carried on for stage2/stage3 wells are you saying the above capped cost will exceed $9 million? If so where are you getting this information?
A capital raise is not out of the question it was said yesterday that it takes about 2 million a year to run company and I have seen estimates of Falcon's share of the next round of drilling to be about 5.5 million without overruns. With 13 million more or less, in the bank, it is very real possibility for a new offering . That is why I would like to see a long horizonal and great flows , the Amungee wasn't commercial at it's flow rate.