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I'm expecting more news at the AGM on the jv's drilling programme in the Beetaloo in 2H 2022. For us, Origin sets the tone and Origin as an organisation (thankfully) is not in the same category as Empire or Tamboran. Like it or not therefore don't expect FOG to issue press releases bragging it's going to solve all Australia's energy problems by 2025 latest until it has further drilling successes down the line.
Personally I wouldn't invest in Tamboran at this time. They have not sorted out yet their royalty issues. They've fallen out with Santos and right now they are rolling their dice on their aptly named Maverick well. Notwithstanding that, I still follow the stock closely because any drilling success they might have with their 'super' team of world experts will be almost immediately reflected in the FOG share price. The same is also the case with Empire.
The Market understands fully the similarity of the properties in all four areas where Origin/FOG, Empire, Tamboran and Tamboran/Santos are drilling. Dry and wet gas is clearly prevalent. That's been proven. What the prospectors must now show is that this area can be commercially developed ....and any one of them has a chance now of proving this in the next 12-18 months or even sooner for the benefit of all of them......and when this happens there is no doubt whatsoever that FOG/Origin with 4.6 million acres will be big winners in the group
Just add gas...
There is ~30 TJ/day pipeline parallel to Carpentaria Hwy going to McArthur River mine. Ideal for early production.
NGP was downsized to ~80TJ and got to be looped to expand capacity. Darwin LNG is a more logical destination for Beetaloo gas.
Shortage in NSW and VIC is of their own making; they sit on plenty of gas and blocked pipeline construction. Actions have consequences, let fine people of most populated states understand they've been taken for fools.
https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/2022-03-PESA-News-164-Empire-Energy-feature.pdf
"For the moment, the company has the comfort of nearby pipeline infrastructure offering potential blending supply options to the McArthur River Mine. In addition, the north-south gas artery running from Darwin to Alice Springs could facilitate backfill to the Santos and Inpex-operated LNG plants in Darwin. A significant milestone on this potential path emerged in October when Empire signed a MOU with APA, which owns the Amadeus Gas Pipeline, to explore development opportunities and potential infrastructure development to enable expansion of existing pipelines to facilitate additional supplies to Darwin. Longer term, the agreement envisages development of a new Beetaloo pipeline connecting the Amadeus and Carpentaria gas pipeline to Mount Isa to open up supply to southern markets and to Gladstone, where LNG export plants have been red flagged by government confronting critical feedstock shortages by as early as 2030."
Despite it being July 3rd,I still expect,like you newtofo, confirmation around the AGM in 2 weeks or so
Surely,at this time we would have been told there was a problem with years program rather than leave us hang like this.One has to still assume that the message earlier in the year re the Amungee fracs still stands for 2022 with the pilot production hopefully 2023 plan
Darnit, just a minor thought as I know you have been in Falcon too long not to see some return for your patience.
I would suggest waiting to see if Origin announces a hot rig is booked and that both Amungee wells will be drilled and fracked this year before buying back any shares just yet. Any kind of announcement of no drilling this year will see massive selling and an all time new share price for Falcon. I believe we need to see confirmation for this year -- with this kind of drilling announcement (most likely now at the AGM) before it will give Falcon a small bump in share price. Any bump in share price may not last too long as Falcon/Origin will still be many months away from any solid data on the core samples from the horizontals in advance of fracking.
Then, if all the drilling and fracking is going ahead this year -- I think you should consider risking a smaller amount than what you had on the line before selling -- (that is small enough that any loss won't impact any future spending plans) just so you aren't caught with no Falcon shares if the horizontal data shows high gas concentrations -- as the share price could get away from you at that point or if Origin announces a farm-down with higher valuations on the acreage.
Once you see commercial indications from any one of the three key players -- then it may be worth buying whichever player looks the strongest (which I still believe will be the "Core" Falcon permits).
Just a thought and not investing advice -- because my track record is absolutely dismal -- LOL.
Sneaky, yes...I'm out and as I'm suffering Stockholm syndrome I long to buy back my shares, but, I really need to see someone drill an economic well. We all remember the Mako, and I'd just as soon not relive that fiasco down under!
Darnit
I expect we will hear the work program for 2022'will commence in a few weeks and I would be shocked if that's not the case
In any event,let's assume that I am correct...are you out for good;I recall you sold out earlier this year?
With the Sheffield influence likely doing it's bit as we speak and its vast US experience...in other words,what bits of the jigsaw would need to fall in place for you to get involved again given the pivotal events of the expected 2022 program.
Just inquisitive really
This announcement is pretty much in the usual vein for Tambo--promotional and forward looking. Not that these are bad qualities, but realize this is more than a piece of fluff--but not a lot more.....
From Monday.
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/f0a24c54-443.pdf
• Tamboran and Jemena have signed a binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to enable
Tamboran to contract ~100 TJ per day of firm capacity through the Northern Gas Pipeline (NGP),
subject to applying NGP Access Principles, under a long-term gas transportation agreement.
• The long-term transportation access agreement with Jemena will support the sanctioning of the
proposed Maverick Pilot Development, planned for the end of calendar year 2023.
• Over calendar years 2022 and 2023, Tamboran plans to drill three horizontal wells within EP 136.
Based on a Netherland, Sewell and Associates, Inc (NSAI) maturation study, if successful, these
wells could deliver approximately 1 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of 2C contingent resources, sufficient
to support the proposed Maverick Pilot Development. Tamboran is targeting initial production
from the development by the end of calendar year 2025.
• Tamboran will now commence Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) studies to progress the
proposed Maverick Pilot Development.
• Tamboran will commence stakeholder engagement activities for the selected pipeline route and
secure NGP access agreements with Jemena, planned to be completed during the second half of
calendar year 2022.